2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3121 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:49 pm

I suppose after the streak of 3 years in a row with 7+ named storms in September, people may be a bit spoiled. Not every year has such a large burst of activity in September, including active seasons (e.g. 2012, 2016). It also seems years with active Augusts tend to have not as many storms in September, such as 2012 (the counterexample being 2004). Also remember that 2017 *only* had 4 named storms form in September, and we all know how explosive that month was per hurricanes/majors/ACE.

Right now, the models might not be showing much ... maybe they turn out right or maybe once again they fail to detect imminent genesis ... but we shall wait and see.

p.s. Beware of October & November in a La Nina year like this.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3122 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 3:07 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:I suppose after the streak of 3 years in a row with 7+ named storms in September, people may be a bit spoiled. Not every year has such a large burst of activity in September, including active seasons (e.g. 2012, 2016). It also seems years with active Augusts tend to have not as many storms in September, such as 2012 (the counterexample being 2004). Also remember that 2017 *only* had 4 named storms form in September, and we all know how explosive that month was per hurricanes/majors/ACE.

Right now, the models might not be showing much ... maybe they turn out right or maybe once again they fail to detect imminent genesis ... but we shall wait and see.

p.s. Beware of October & November in a La Nina year like this.


Models are starting to become more bullish with development. Look in the models thread
EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3123 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:22 am

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3124 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:48 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

Are you serious GFS wtf...
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3125 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:23 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg


384 hour shear maps :lol:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3126 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:24 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg


384 hour shear forecast from the GFS? :) We'll see.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3127 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:29 am

Euro not as hostile but surely shows protective TUTT east of Florida.

Image
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3128 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:34 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg


Will the GFS ever realize that we are not entering a warm ENSO phase, let alone an El Niño? That shear pattern is what you would see in El Niño years, not La Nina. Oh yeah and plus it’s 384 hours out, so I’m honestly not going to take it seriously now.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3129 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:39 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg


Also, based on that model run for the GFS, it shows no discernible TCs during that timeframe in the EPAC (in fact, Olaf is the only one that forms), so I am honestly unsure if that shear is due to Pacific forcing. Honestly speaking given this to be the case, I am actually unsure where the GFS even thinks that kind of shear could possibly originate.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3130 Postby kevin » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:46 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg


Will the GFS ever realize that we are not entering a warm ENSO phase, let alone an El Niño? That shear pattern is what you would see in El Niño years, not La Nina. Oh yeah and plus it’s 384 hours out, so I’m honestly not going to take it seriously now.


Yeah, making a shear map 24 hours in advance is already difficult enough, 384 hours is usually just an interesting model fantasy. That being said, this GFS output is truly weird.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3131 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:43 am

Hopefully one of those upcoming waves becomes a long-tracking OTS major that doesn’t attempt ten billion EWRCs like Larry. It probably would’ve been a ~40 ACE Cat 4 if it wasn’t constantly growing larger and limiting itself as a result. Larry will probably max out at 27-30 ACE — quite a lot, but it could’ve been more. Another Larry-like storm will be enough on its own to get 2021 to the 1981-2010 average total season ACE.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3132 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 07, 2021 10:59 am

SFLcane wrote:That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

I'm thinking that the GFS wants to end Hurricane Season already . . . :lol:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3133 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:14 am

Interesting how once again this year the climatological peak of the season is not when the worst U.S. impacts are happening.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3134 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:30 am

Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3135 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:54 am

aspen wrote:Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.


Actually, I wouldn’t count out 91L just yet as it is still projected to go over the Gulf Stream, and the NHC notes it can still form then. As for seeing a lackluster peak season, I also think that with models showing some possibility of MDR activity later this month, perhaps you are onto something with the September 10 date being earlier than the real peak of this season? Either way, with how this season has been performing so far, I expect it to come into action again sometime this month.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3136 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:00 pm

Just wait I am sure we are in for a busy last week of September and all of October. Just because we are in supressed MJO phase right now doesn't mean it will be for the rest of the season. I expect the trend in recent seasons of having an active October to continue.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3137 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:15 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development

Current:
Image

+3 Days:
Image

Edit: +8 Days ( :oops: euro date format)
Image
Last edited by Spacecoast on Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3138 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 07, 2021 4:13 pm

aspen wrote:Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.


91L, the wave coming off Africa on September 10-11, and another low in the Caribbean Sea have some potential. September 10 is only an average, but the month of September is almost always the peak of hurricane season.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3139 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:39 pm

Spacecoast wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development

Current:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/BgZywBT/ecmd.jpg [/url]

+3 Days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bHNwhQ2/ecmc.jpg [/url]

+14 Days
[url]https://i.ibb.co/XxDGJT9/ecmb.jpg [/url]


Something strange is going on
Saharan dust outbreaks are typically non-existent during September
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3140 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:53 pm

Can't remember which season it was but it was either 2010 or 2011 where large Saharan dust outbreaks persisted into the month of September.
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