2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AxaltaRacing24]

Mid-late October could be nasty with a Kelvin Wave moving into a Nina-favored western Atlantic.

It’s not all bears for September, as the Euro ensembles and other models suggest there are 3 waves in the next 10-12 days with chances to develop. However, this really doesn’t feel like September; it still seems like mid-late August when we’ve gotten a big storm (in this situation, Larry) but are still waiting for the switch to be flipped as we enter the peak of the season. Climo Peak Day is Friday, and it feels like the switch was turned on for 2-3 weeks but has been switched off already.

Seasons almost always follow cyclic patterns of activity w/ the MJO and CCKWs. We had a two week period with 3 major hurricanes including a high end cat 4 landfall on the CONUS and a long track annular ACE producer. To see that kind of activity continue without pause is extremely rare. For some seasons, peak activity lines up better with August or October than September.

Like I said I few days ago, all this talk about unfavorable conditions in the MDR, stability, etc, but we literally are watching a large long-tracker make it's way across the basin producing HUGE ACE. Yes, it's not a cat 4-5 headed towards land like 2017,18, and 19, but it is still a major storm that is lasting for multiple days in early September. Although the models do not currently show it, I'd expect at least 3-4 more storms once large Larry exits the basin before the month ends.

Important to add: While this is not a TC spamfest like 2020, we are still right on pace with that season in terms of quality systems. If we even have 3 more majors (all it takes is 1-2 in September and October combined), we could end up matching 2017 in majors, just one short of the all time record.

[Category5Kaiju]

Mid-late October could be nasty with a Kelvin Wave moving into a Nina-favored western Atlantic.

It’s not all bears for September, as the Euro ensembles and other models suggest there are 3 waves in the next 10-12 days with chances to develop. However, this really doesn’t feel like September; it still seems like mid-late August when we’ve gotten a big storm (in this situation, Larry) but are still waiting for the switch to be flipped as we enter the peak of the season. Climo Peak Day is Friday, and it feels like the switch was turned on for 2-3 weeks but has been switched off already.

Seasons almost always follow cyclic patterns of activity w/ the MJO and CCKWs. We had a two week period with 3 major hurricanes including a high end cat 4 landfall on the CONUS and a long track annular ACE producer. To see that kind of activity continue without pause is extremely rare. For some seasons, peak activity lines up better with August or October than September.

Like I said I few days ago, all this talk about unfavorable conditions in the MDR, stability, etc, but we literally are watching a large long-tracker make it's way across the basin producing HUGE ACE. Yes, it's not a cat 4-5 headed towards land like 2017,18, and 19, but it is still a major storm that is lasting for multiple days in early September. Although the models do not currently show it, I'd expect at least 3-4 more storms once large Larry exits the basin before the month ends.

Important to add: While this is not a TC spamfest like 2020, we are still right on pace with that season in terms of quality systems. If we even have 3 more majors (all it takes is 1-2 in September and October combined), we could end up matching 2017 in majors, just one short of the all time record.

Actually, I would argue that we currently are ahead of where 2020 was quality wise at this point. Teddy did not even form yet.

[gatorcane]

Widespread low 60s across the northern Gulf coast in 48 hours which is below normal. Should help to start cooling the waters:

[SFLcane]

For Florida in particular the next kelvin wave will likely spark another bout of tc’s towards the mid late month and especially as we move into October the Caribbean combined with La Niña will have to be watched quite closely. I for one think this season still has lots to give and could very much be back loaded.

[CyclonicFury]

Widespread low 60s across the northern Gulf coast in 48 hours which is below normal. Should help to start cooling the waters:

https://i.postimg.cc/MHmKLBrw/gfs-T2m-seus-9.png

After that it warms back up. We shouldn't see any deep cold fronts any time soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

Widespread low 60s across the northern Gulf coast in 48 hours which is below normal. Should help to start cooling the waters:

https://i.postimg.cc/MHmKLBrw/gfs-T2m-seus-9.png

After that it warms back up. We shouldn't see any deep cold fronts any time soon.

Yup, that's a later October issue. Potential max hurricane intensity in the Gulf can still support a Category 5 hurricane with a minimum pressure of less than 910 mbar, and the western Gulf can support a sub-890 mbar hurricane.

[SFLcane]

I am quite concerned for SFL this October MJO combined with ENSO is going to bring problems in a few weeks across the Caribbean.

[weeniepatrol]

Folks, this was well forecast just like every other year on record there is intraseasonal activity and right now clearly the Pacific is favored with genesis in the epac and wpac recently. As always happens with no el Nino favorability will propagate eastward. Atlantic is taking a power nap and I can't wait for the late Sept/early Oct burst to silence detractors for good until May 2022 like clockwork every year

[weeniepatrol]

Also, every season in recent memory has been ridiculously backloaded and with La Nina imminent I don't see why this year would be an exception!

[AlphaToOmega]

There is an invest in the Gulf of Mexico and another AOI in the MDR. This September is not going to be dead by any means. VP maps never lie.
P.S.: MJO is not a big factor during the peak of hurricane season.

[AlphaToOmega]

Folks, this was well forecast just like every other year on record there is intraseasonal activity and right now clearly the Pacific is favored with genesis in the epac and wpac recently. As always happens with no el Nino favorability will propagate eastward. Atlantic is taking a power nap and I can't wait for the late Sept/early Oct burst to silence detractors for good until May 2022 like clockwork every year

https://i.imgur.com/vgt0S2v.png

But there is an African Standing Wave
I cannot see how September will be inactive

[psyclone]

The only thing this peak season pause does is really run the clock down on the western gulf. For folks farther east like the east gulf, western caribbean and florida...we're just getting started. Looking south later has been far more interesting than looking east earlier. This year is likely to continue that trend..

[NDG]

Say good buy to the the eastern US trough pattern during the second half of September.

[AlphaToOmega]

Say good buy to the the eastern US trough pattern during the second half of September.

https://i.imgur.com/wYTj6Gu.gif

That is going to make people who forecasted an OTS season question everything they said. The difference between a barely OTS storm and a landfalling storm could be a thousand lives.

[NDG]

Widespread low 60s across the northern Gulf coast in 48 hours which is below normal. Should help to start cooling the waters:

https://i.postimg.cc/MHmKLBrw/gfs-T2m-seus-9.png

These early "cool dry" fronts don't do much in cooling down the northern GOM, the cooler airmass needs to penetrate well south into the GOM which the same GFS doesn't show much penetration into the GOM.
The Euro SSTs forecast don't show much cooling down, SSTs staying in the low to mid 80s all across the GOM with some upper 80s further south.

[Category5Kaiju]

Say good buy to the the eastern US trough pattern during the second half of September.

https://i.imgur.com/wYTj6Gu.gif

Yikes...that's no bueno for any late September MDR storm that develops...

[AlphaToOmega]

Folks, this was well forecast just like every other year on record there is intraseasonal activity and right now clearly the Pacific is favored with genesis in the epac and wpac recently. As always happens with no el Nino favorability will propagate eastward. Atlantic is taking a power nap and I can't wait for the late Sept/early Oct burst to silence detractors for good until May 2022 like clockwork every year

https://i.imgur.com/vgt0S2v.png

What models is NOAA using? Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF indicate a favorable VP pattern for September.

[Yellow Evan]

Say good buy to the the eastern US trough pattern during the second half of September.

https://i.imgur.com/wYTj6Gu.gif

That is going to make people who forecasted an OTS season question everything they said. The difference between a barely OTS storm and a landfalling storm could be a thousand lives.

It’s getting somewhat late for long tracked Cape Verdes. Model support (yes, I know) is mostly EPS limited for anything short term, and by then, the -VP will have fled elsewhere though it will likely return to the Caribbean for much of late September and into October.

[Yellow Evan]

Folks, this was well forecast just like every other year on record there is intraseasonal activity and right now clearly the Pacific is favored with genesis in the epac and wpac recently. As always happens with no el Nino favorability will propagate eastward. Atlantic is taking a power nap and I can't wait for the late Sept/early Oct burst to silence detractors for good until May 2022 like clockwork every year

https://i.imgur.com/vgt0S2v.png

What models is NOAA using? Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF indicate a favorable VP pattern for September.

We’re late enough into September that it’s more useful looking at sub-monthly VP composites (like the GEFS/EPS 16/45 day VP forecasts).

[AlphaToOmega]

Folks, this was well forecast just like every other year on record there is intraseasonal activity and right now clearly the Pacific is favored with genesis in the epac and wpac recently. As always happens with no el Nino favorability will propagate eastward. Atlantic is taking a power nap and I can't wait for the late Sept/early Oct burst to silence detractors for good until May 2022 like clockwork every year

https://i.imgur.com/vgt0S2v.png

What models is NOAA using? Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF indicate a favorable VP pattern for September.

We’re late enough into September that it’s more useful looking at sub-monthly VP composites (like the GEFS/EPS 16/45 day VP forecasts).

Weekly CFSv2 and extended ECMWF forecasts show -VP for West Africa and the Indian Ocean, which is favorable for development.






Either the CFSv2 and ECMWF are lying to us, or September will be favorable for tropical cyclone development.