ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

If the 06z HWRF is right, the center will be reforming much further east right now, but then jump back over a little west in the early afternoon. Radar suggests that hasn’t happened yet.

I saw the hwrf doing this last night, and I don’t think it’s constantly reforming the center, so much as it is depicting multiple centers and struggling to latch onto the one it sees as dominant. This seems like it could be a bit of a wildcard for the forecast in my opinion.

[SoupBone]

Saved 7 hr radar loop, it looks to put on the breaks during the last hour or so and about to start taking the more northerly heading as forecasted.

https://imgur.com/UJMfmX5

Amazing how good the NHC is. Obviously still a lot of game left, but really good. Same for some of the private weather companies out there.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1437384971681992708

[Kohlecane]

I'm having a difficult time with orientation between graphics. One looks like a center of circulation almost on top of Brownsville and the other is much further away and mostly eastward. Much of this is due to time and scale differences. Some is due to what appear to be multiple vortices, none of which have become dominant.

My bet guess is the COC on radar is in the extreme NW of the broader area of CCW flow.

But like I said initially, I could be confused.

As 57 said, the center we see on radar is doing a counter clockwise loop around a broader circulation. Because movement has slowed it looks confusing, but it appears the center is now moving east / ne or reforming further northeast. The further it gets away from the radar site the higher the altitude, which adds to the mess.

This is very interesting, that's quite the leap. Can we conclude this is why the models were very bouncy these past 2-3 runs specifically

[NDG]

Perhaps a small counter-clockwise loop? Seems on-track this morning. Local Houston paper says heavy rain here Tue-Wed. More like this evening to 9am Tuesday then off to the east. Even though the center may move slowly northeast once it passes to our north (Houston), the squalls will be WELL to the east of the exposed center.

If the latest GFS is correct the heaviest rains in the immediate Houston area will be gone even earlier by 6-7 AM tomorrow morning.

[MBryant]

I'm having a difficult time with orientation between graphics. One looks like a center of circulation almost on top of Brownsville and the other is much further away and mostly eastward. Much of this is due to time and scale differences. Some is due to what appear to be multiple vortices, none of which have become dominant.

My bet guess is the COC on radar is in the extreme NW of the broader area of CCW flow.

But like I said initially, I could be confused.

As 57 said, the center we see on radar is doing a counter clockwise loop around a broader circulation. Because movement has slowed it looks confusing, but it appears the center is now moving east / ne or reforming further northeast. The further it gets away from the radar site the higher the altitude, which adds to the mess.

When I see these images, it reminds me of the multiple vortices on the outer edge of the eye in extremely well organized systems. I'm sure the meteorology is different, but they appear similar.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon already finding some strong winds pretty far out. Wind field looks big

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Saved 7 hr radar loop, it looks to put on the breaks during the last hour or so and about to start taking the more northerly heading as forecasted.

https://imgur.com/UJMfmX5

Amazing how good the NHC is. Obviously still a lot of game left, but really good. Same for some of the private weather companies out there.

Well of course they will if that's what the GFS has been persistent on and even the latest 06z HWRF shows, which by the way the latest 06z are persistent on a new circulation reforming NE or NNE of current one right about right now at 12z but I don't see the signs of a new circulation forming on radar just yet, I just think is going to take a big cyclonic loop to the NE instead, then a more northerly track later this afternoon.

[hipshot]

Holy crap, just catching up with reality this morning.

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/Aamexar.gif

Is that tiny swirl south of Brownsvillle the LLC or a swirl. It looks to be moving west into N.E. tip of Mexico.

[MBryant]

Recon already finding some strong winds pretty far out. Wind field looks big

The wind field almost appears disconnected from the Center of Circulation and well to the East Northeast.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is awesome watching a center relocation on radar. It will give valuable insight in the future to how this takes place.

[Nederlander]

Holy crap, just catching up with reality this morning.

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/Aamexar.gif

Is that tiny swirl south of Brownsvillle the LLC or a swirl. It looks to be moving west into N.E. tip of Mexico.

Actually moving more SE NOW, looks like it’ll stay offshore of Deep South TX as it turns to the N and NE

[GCANE]

Latest thermal analysis from AMSU shows a very deep cold pool from surface to about 500mb.
Warm core is nothing to write home about.
If this stacks to the east in the deep convection, that warm core will suddenly line up with the cold pool and this puppy could take off.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437391134024781824

[InfernoFlameCat]

Latest thermal analysis from AMSU shows a very deep cold pool from surface to about 500mb.
Warm core is nothing to write home about.
If this stacks to the east in the deep convection, that warm core will suddenly line up with the cold pool and this puppy could take off.

Yeah and hopefully shear beheads it. I don’t want a beast hitting Texas.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437391134024781824

Is that the MLC at 26.5N/95.5W?

[dantonlsu]

Latest thermal analysis from AMSU shows a very deep cold pool from surface to about 500mb.
Warm core is nothing to write home about.
If this stacks to the east in the deep convection, that warm core will suddenly line up with the cold pool and this puppy could take off.

Yeah and hopefully shear beheads it. I don’t want a beast hitting Texas.

Doesn't have too much time left.

[SoupBone]

Latest thermal analysis from AMSU shows a very deep cold pool from surface to about 500mb.
Warm core is nothing to write home about.
If this stacks to the east in the deep convection, that warm core will suddenly line up with the cold pool and this puppy could take off.

Yeah and hopefully shear beheads it. I don’t want a beast hitting Texas.

Some 30 knot shear but the 40 knot shear seems to not currently be there.

[NDG]

12z Sounding from Brownsville, different from last night's soundings it shows dry westerly winds between h250-h400, a good reason why the heavy rains have not pushed into that area.