ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SoupBone
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#581 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:16 am

NDG wrote:I have to agree, the radar and radar velocity is starting to look interesting, the LLC has completely stopped its progression, what appeared it moving eastward was the convection near it being decoupled it.




Is it the shear taking its head off? It's getting hit with 30 knots currently.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#582 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:16 am

grapealcoholic wrote:
aspen wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:993

That drop seems off to me. Usually, the AF planes don’t have such a large pressure discrepancy between extrapolated and dropsonde pressures.

It might be due to that LLC being "remnant" so the plane's flight pressure doesn't quite calibrate to normal extrapolations

The surface level on that dropsonde is 1000mb.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#583 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:16 am

Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#584 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:17 am

GCANE wrote:Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.


Just ENE of Brownsville?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#585 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:27 am

26/95 is where i'd guess it'll try to reform. Would be a good bit east of track
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#586 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:34 am

tropicwatch wrote:
GCANE wrote:Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.


Just ENE of Brownsville?


Yes
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#587 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 am

Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#588 Postby lrak » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:44 am

GCANE wrote:Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.


"goes" you mean strengthen?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#589 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:46 am

lrak wrote:
GCANE wrote:Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.


"goes" you mean strengthen?


Yes
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#590 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:51 am

I’m seeing the same thing. This is crazy.
Frank P wrote:Well it sure looks like on radar that the old LLC near the coast is washing out as it rotates CCW and perhaps a new center is forming off to the NE. Perhaps just premature speculation on my part…

[url]https://i.ibb.co/QJDZnLf/272-F70-BF-D2-FC-4264-9646-304-F639-CB338.jpg [/url]
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#591 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:00 am

The lighthouse at Brazos Santiago, TX has been reporting NE winds for almost two hours now.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#592 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:06 am

Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#593 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:06 am

At least on radar it looks like it tried a center relocation and failed. I could be completely wrong about that though just what it looked like to me.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#594 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:11 am

NDG wrote:Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif


Wow if that is the center, it is not as far north as I thought it would be and further east.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#595 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:11 am

Not showing anything in particular, was just trying to create a visible loop and I couldn't save much of one.

Image

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#596 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:17 am

NDG wrote:Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif



Can I come with you? :lol:
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#597 Postby LARanger » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:18 am



I gotta say, as alarming as this potential flood factory is, the radar loop from this morning is utterly hilarious. It's like Nicholas was all "I'm goin' to Brownsville!" but, upon catching sight of the town, yeeted itself right the heck outta there with a right hearty "NOPE".
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The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#598 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:19 am

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:21 am

LARanger wrote:


I gotta say, as alarming as this potential flood factory is, the radar loop from this morning is utterly hilarious. It's like Nicholas was all "I'm goin' to Brownsville!" but, upon catching sight of the town, yeeted itself right the heck outta there with a right hearty "NOPE".



As I've said a few times, while 30 knots of shear isn't super high, it's apparently enough to push convection off to the east and disrupt Nicholas. This shear has been in the forecast for days too, though in the 40 knot range. Today will be a day for Nicholas to bump or stay sloppy. My bet is on sloppy ATM.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#600 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:23 am

Looking at the first visible satellite images this morning
one gets the illusion this is all shifting more NNE
than NNW.
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