ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I have to agree, the radar and radar velocity is starting to look interesting, the LLC has completely stopped its progression, what appeared it moving eastward was the convection near it being decoupled it.

Is it the shear taking its head off? It's getting hit with 30 knots currently.

[Ubuntwo]

993

That drop seems off to me. Usually, the AF planes don’t have such a large pressure discrepancy between extrapolated and dropsonde pressures.

It might be due to that LLC being "remnant" so the plane's flight pressure doesn't quite calibrate to normal extrapolations

The surface level on that dropsonde is 1000mb.

[GCANE]

Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.

[tropicwatch]

Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.

Just ENE of Brownsville?

[grapealcoholic]

26/95 is where i'd guess it'll try to reform. Would be a good bit east of track

[GCANE]

Reformation around the tower looks very consistent with radar.

Just ENE of Brownsville?

Yes

[GCANE]

Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.

[lrak]

Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.

"goes" you mean strengthen?

[GCANE]

Looking at shear tendency map on CIMSS, the possible reformation would be borderline.
With the strong infeed, chances are increasing this goes and pushes shear out of the way.

"goes" you mean strengthen?

Yes

[HurricaneBrain]

I’m seeing the same thing. This is crazy.

Well it sure looks like on radar that the old LLC near the coast is washing out as it rotates CCW and perhaps a new center is forming off to the NE. Perhaps just premature speculation on my part…

[url]https://i.ibb.co/QJDZnLf/272-F70-BF-D2-FC-4264-9646-304-F639-CB338.jpg [/url]

[tropicwatch]

The lighthouse at Brazos Santiago, TX has been reporting NE winds for almost two hours now.

[NDG]

Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

[HurricaneEnzo]

At least on radar it looks like it tried a center relocation and failed. I could be completely wrong about that though just what it looked like to me.

[tropicwatch]

Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif

Wow if that is the center, it is not as far north as I thought it would be and further east.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Not showing anything in particular, was just trying to create a visible loop and I couldn't save much of one.



https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[SoupBone]

Last radar loop from me until late this evening, unfortunately I cannot work from my home office today, I have to be a customer's event at Universal Studios.
LLC looks to be weakening and merging to the NE towards the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif

Can I come with you?

[LARanger]

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif

I gotta say, as alarming as this potential flood factory is, the radar loop from this morning is utterly hilarious. It's like Nicholas was all "I'm goin' to Brownsville!" but, upon catching sight of the town, yeeted itself right the heck outta there with a right hearty "NOPE".

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Another visible loop attempt:



https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/K6ewjNP.gif

I gotta say, as alarming as this potential flood factory is, the radar loop from this morning is utterly hilarious. It's like Nicholas was all "I'm goin' to Brownsville!" but, upon catching sight of the town, yeeted itself right the heck outta there with a right hearty "NOPE".

As I've said a few times, while 30 knots of shear isn't super high, it's apparently enough to push convection off to the east and disrupt Nicholas. This shear has been in the forecast for days too, though in the 40 knot range. Today will be a day for Nicholas to bump or stay sloppy. My bet is on sloppy ATM.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the first visible satellite images this morning
one gets the illusion this is all shifting more NNE
than NNW.