ATL: SAM - Models

[grapealcoholic]

[kevin]

Just for a historical reference / statistics, only 10 hurricanes made landfall in the US while originating from the east (I took passing east of Cuba as 'east', Matthew is kind of an edge case) in October, November or December since 1851. Of this subset only 2 passed north of the Caribbean while forming roughly in the MDR (basically the potential set-up for 98L): the 1898 and 1893 hurricanes. It seems to indicate that a US landfall from such a set-up is extremely rare so for now I'm not worrying about that aspect too much (yet). The entire list, in chronological order:

Year / Name / Month / Landfalling state / Wind speed @LF (kt) / Pressure @LF (mb) / Cat@LF

2016 / Matthew / Oct / South Carolina / 75 / 967 / 1
2012 / Sandy* / Oct / New Jersey / 70 / 945 / 1
1966 / Inez / Oct / Florida / 75 / 984 / 1
1954 / Hazel / Oct / South and North Carolina / 115 / 938 / 4
1941 / Unnamed / Oct / Florida / 85 / ?? / 2
1935 / Unnamed / Nov / Florida / 85 / 973 / 2
1913 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 65 / ?? / 1
1898 / Unnamed / Oct / Georgia / 115 / 938 / 4
1893 / Unnamed / Oct / South Carolina / 105 / 955 / 3
1869 / Unnamed / Oct / Maine / 90 / ?? / 2

* = extra-tropical at landfall

Here are the two 'worst-case scenarios' (1898 and 1893):

1898 Georgia hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/y6QSMcJ.png

1893 Great Charleston Hurricane
https://i.imgur.com/vQ7I94i.png

Shouldn’t hurricane Kate from 1985 be on this list?

He forgot Irma of all storms too lol, probably the worst case of a Cape Verde system

EDIT: I see he had October, November or December only, however we still have 10 days left in September...

Yes I know we have 10 days left in September, but almost all models are at least in the 240+ range (even more like 300+) when they potentially get close to landfall, even though luckily almost all models go OTS for now. So if 98L would make landfall in the US it's likely to be in early October, which is why I made that list. Bocadude85 is correct that hurricane Kate should technically be on the list since it originated from the east, but the way I made my list is that it should 1) originate from the east and 2) hit the east coast. Kate passes 1), but not 2) since it hit western Florida. Still that wasn't very clear (at all) in my original post so I can fully understand why Bocaduda85 would think Kate also needs to be on that list.

[supercane4867]

a lot of folks are gonna freak out once they wake up in the morning

[kevin]

Euro... how about no.

[Deshaunrob17]

Bruh it's Irma all over again. Gfs with the northern solution and Euro with the southern solution. It will be a painful set of days watching these models.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro, what are you doing???


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[supercane4867]

So much for the September fishfest

[grapealcoholic]

Every 0z model trended wayyy south and west. That's a strong signal

[SouthFLTropics]

Since tonight's overnight runs are getting on the SW trend, may as well leave this right here.

[supercane4867]

Euro develops a giant omega block over Canada thus completely cut off the same trough over eastern US in the GFS solution. Probably somewhat overdone but it’s still more believable than the GFS pumping a hurricane right into the subtropical ridge

[Landy]

a lot of folks are gonna freak out once they wake up in the morning

Ohh yeah. That's me. Rest in peace to my productivity this week. Feels weird to be tracking a potential MDR threat to CONUS in late September but here we are...

[USTropics]

Bruh it's Irma all over again. Gfs with the northern solution and Euro with the southern solution. It will be a painful set of days watching these models.

I don't want to put too much stock into runs this far out in time, but both the GFS and ECMWF models are showing significant high pressure developing over Canada at the end of the run, and a shallow trough over the SE CONUS as a result (which allows for ridging to build back in over 98L with the bend west towards PR/Hispaniola on the ECWMF run and the stall on the GFS run):





It'll be important to continue monitoring the ensemble runs to get a better idea of possible outcomes. For instance, the GFS ensembles are more inline with the ECMWF operational than the GFS operational:


The major difference between the GFS and ECWMF operational tracks can be seen at 96 hours. On the ECMWF run, the remnants of Odette are already in the process of being absorbed into the higher latitudes, which lessens how much the eastern edge of the central Atlantic ridge is eroded:


Meanwhile the GFS model has this still cut off from the high latitude jet stream, which results in a stronger trough associated with ex-Odette that erodes the central Atlantic ridge (thus allowing 98L to get further north):


Again, plenty of options on the table and time to see how this shapes out in the long run, but we should start to have some answers in the next 4 days based on how the remains of Odette/strength of the central Atlantic ridge plays out.

[Teban54]

I expected the Euro to be ready when I finish writing that long post in the indicators thread, but wow, what a surprise.

This is becoming reminiscent of Larry where models runs kept moving SW. As shown below (*), those Larry runs started converging onto the actual track when it was SW of CV islands. If that's true for 98L, that would not be a good sign.
 https://twitter.com/TheHurricaneBot/status/1436365827234676741




(*) Not sure which models and ensembles they use, but nice for visualization purposes.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS has 3 members either landfall on or skirt S or C FL 10/4-5 (vs the 12Z's 2 landfalls on S FL):

[kevin]

12z (left) vs 00z (right)

[SFLcane]

Ok euro

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok euro

https://i.postimg.cc/0QRs5JzR/4354-A263-69-E5-49-C3-800-D-15-D849-D21-FE4.png

https://i.postimg.cc/NFQvmq8d/95-E2-E827-DF52-4504-B999-E0753-F02-BD8-E.png

https://i.postimg.cc/DZrKSyGW/B9-D034-AC-EDD0-4-B5-A-92-DB-3394582-A659-F.png

https://i.postimg.cc/QCSGq40h/F59-E9-DB7-6-AD4-4-F52-8-B16-D6-FAC9-DC9-B37.png

Sam: Hey big sis!
Irma: Hey bro what’s boppin’?

[jlauderdal]

Lol, GFS basically stalls 98L from 258 hrs through 318 hrs at the same intensity. Looks like a front tries to pick it up but fails.

Update: Moving west slowly again, gets dangerously close to Bermuda but ultimately misses it just to the east while recurving. Keep in mind this is fantasy range.

Im not buying the stall, pattern looks progressive, not sold on the euro yet but its more believable than the gfs...I put a US landfall at 10% for now

[kevin]

I know almost everyone is already aware of this, but just a reminder: we're still roughly 240 hours away from any potential impact to the Caribbean and even further away from any possible CONUS impact. So whatever happens, expect large windshield wiping to occur on the models and people going either 'oh no we're doomed' or 'looks like we have a definite fish' every time a model cycle trends one way or the other. Independent of the outcome, it looks like we could have a few long model watching days ahead of us.

[Hammy]

GFS trending further southwest and weaker through 72 hours over the last few runs.