ATL: SAM - Models

[grapealcoholic]

Found the scorecard comparing the new euro against the current one scored on z500 observations. Second image is scoring against analyses

New euro looks to be 1-2% better

[toad strangler]

The Northern LA's and at least PR should be on their tippy toes. After that because of the DATE I'd side with climo and a re-curve as far W as the Bahamas to a sharper one that threatens Bermuda. THat's just a safe climo thought. Anything can happen and I'll never be the ding dong that says it can NOT.

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/DZwHZQ5h/7-CD1-F59-C-AB3-B-4-D62-8720-1-ABC05-DA5-ABB.gif

The good news is that this is 10 days out which can and will change...however if it does not that pattern screams SE Florida

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It doesn't. At the very end of the run most members sharply, and I mean SHARPLY curve it away from mainland US. If this run continued past 240 then I would bet on climo and say this is an uncomfortable OTS or Bermuda track for now.

I have to disagree, there is a group that turns NNW @65W and a large group that ends on a WNW path @21N/70W. Even at 70W still plenty of room to recurve w/o impacting the CONUS, but it's definitely not consensus sharp N turn at end of run.

[grapealcoholic]

GFS coming in further SW

[ScottNAtlanta]

There could be a trough split that sends this further west. That's what it looks like to me. That would have a tongue of high pressure that extends out to the east over the storm

[blp]

18z GFS further SW through 84hrs.

[grapealcoholic]

Can already tell this is going to be an interesting run

[toad strangler]

Can already tell this is going to be an interesting run

how?

[kevin]

18z GFS already ~130 miles further SW at +114 hours compared to the 12z run.

[grapealcoholic]

Can already tell this is going to be an interesting run

how?

Ridging looks stronger

[Blown Away]

18z GFS already ~130 miles further SW at +114 hours compared to the 12z run.

GFS continues trending SW...

[blp]

Can already tell this is going to be an interesting run

Yep, this one gives me a bad feeling. Real big shift here. Will probably have trouble clearing the islands.

[toad strangler]

Can already tell this is going to be an interesting run

how?

Ridging looks stronger

Run is a good jog SW but I'm not impressed with 500mb. We'll see

[grapealcoholic]

Wonder if that trough over SE canada cuts off allowing ridging to fill in under

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very obvious trend in the GFS continues. Weaker, further west & more of a threat to land.

[kevin]

GFS18z+156

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is a good jog further SW than 12z but the 500mb map screams easy re-curve before affecting even the N Lesser Antilles. PArt of larger trend though? We shall see.

[skyline385]

The ridge is just beginning to build and its already so much SW, good chance of a CONUS hit this run probably

[aspen]

That gets extremely close to the NW islands as a Cat 2/3 on September 29th.

[Teban54]

18z GFS is a good jog further SW than 12z but the 500mb map screams easy re-curve before affecting even the N Lesser Antilles. PArt of larger trend though? We shall see.

The ridge is just beginning to build and its already so much SW, good chance of a CONUS hit this run probably

The duality of S2K.