2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AC5230]

So models support a bit of a lull in development after Sam and Victor die?

[SFLcane]

Lol… as I imagined nothing but typical early October bias on the Gefs and gfs. Anyways should be a quite 1-2 weeks

[Category5Kaiju]

Latest CMC shows a developing TC in the WCAR on October 12, but unfortunately the run stops there

[NDG]

Throw the 12z GFS out the window with development happening the EPAC instead.
The reason, it has been erroneously forecasting EPAC development during the past week or so in its med to long range.

[Category5Kaiju]

Throw the 12z GFS out the window with development happening the EPAC instead.
The reason, it has been erroneously forecasting EPAC development during the past week or so in its med to long range.

Ok yeah so just checked, and I think it is pretty likely that that actually does not occur.

[chaser1]

Latest CMC shows a developing TC in the WCAR on October 12, but unfortunately the run stops there

NAVGEM 6Z at 144 hr. hits toward potential development in far W. Caribbean. I'd never hang my hat on that model but simply stating another model suggesting low surface pressures that align with ensemble members broadly "pinging" in that particular region. As for the 12Z GFS operational...., this run now depicts genesis more in line with what the ICON has broadly been suggesting and pushes a developing system over to the Pacific. And???????? I give that solution about just as much (or actually as "little") stock as if the GFS were projecting a hurricane to track smack over S. Florida right now LOL. My best guess is that a T.S. will form in the W. Caribbean between the 7th-10th. Even if that were to verify depending on the exact point of genesis and steering condition at such a time, any track ranging from westward to northeastward could potentially play out. How one latches on to any one solution at this timeframe and still without an actual storm is a head-scratcher.

[gatorcane]

“Yeah right” NAVGEM heading NE in the long-range:

[AutoPenalti]

It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.

[chaser1]

It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.

Exactly, and THAT's the point Evaluating specific model storms, their strength, or their track this far out is akin to listening to a football team talk smack hours before the game. It might suggest team confidence..... and "possibly" suggest how they'll play early on in the game, but that ain't worth squat in terms of the final score or who won the game. Hey, Gatorcane knows his stuff and those of us who have been around DO sarcastically joke how some models projecting a long term landfall is typically the "all clear" flag for that spot LOL. Heck I'd even be leery if the NAVGEM tagged Florida on a 72 hr. forecast, unless the EURO and GFS suddenly came in line suggesting the same. As AutoPenalti said though, it's certainly picking up on low surface pressures and overall favorable conditions for the overall region. Obviously, there's actual wobble-watching and then there's model wobble-watching, but right now all we can seriously do is simply watch to see if the "tropical development needle" begins to incrementally rise or fall.

[Blown Away]

Yes, the GFS has a NW Caribbean bias this time of year, but IMO the GFS has performed pretty good past few years and I dare say better than King Euro.

[LarryWx]

It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.

Sniffing alright. Maybe it is sniffing glue instead of smoking crack?

Since I last posted on the GEFS, it has cut back significantly on W Car genesis chances for ~10/8. So, it is looking more like that may be a GFS suite phantom. We'll see!

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/XqRDFWSk/84-EF6-D58-FEA5-41-E7-B16-D-21-DCDBDB0-DDB.gif

It's over.

Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/XqRDFWSk/84-EF6-D58-FEA5-41-E7-B16-D-21-DCDBDB0-DDB.gif

It's over.

Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.

Lol.. the timing just didn’t make no sense there’s currently a suppressed KW over the western Atlantic right now. Things start to get into a more favorable look in about 2 weeks. But yep I will always be hesitant when the Gefs is all by itself.

[blp]

According to the CFS the last few days. Development looks to be from the 19th -22nd. So if this to be believed we should start to see something on the GFS in the next couple of days.

Sat 10/2 +408hrs


Fri 10/1


Thurs 9/30

[Teban54]

According to the CFS the last few days. Development looks to be from the 19th -22nd. So if this to be believed we should start to see something on the GFS in the next couple of days.

Sat 10/2 +408hrs
https://i.ibb.co/SKDhqZy/21101900-0200.gif

Fri 10/1
https://i.ibb.co/G077gmG/21102212-0100.gif

Thurs 9/30
https://i.ibb.co/JdL0FYC/21102200-3000.gif

So much for the "CFS has nothing for the rest of the season" calls... Although things can still change.

[otowntiger]

https://i.postimg.cc/XqRDFWSk/84-EF6-D58-FEA5-41-E7-B16-D-21-DCDBDB0-DDB.gif

It's over.

Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.

I know you’re being sarcastic, but everyday we go where models show nothing for 10 days or more we get that much closer to that door being closed.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/XqRDFWSk/84-EF6-D58-FEA5-41-E7-B16-D-21-DCDBDB0-DDB.gif

It's over.

Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.

I know you’re being sarcastic, but everyday we go where models show nothing for 10 days or more we get that much closer to that door being closed.

Models not showing anything for 10 days is hardly reliable.

[Ubuntwo]

There will be a tropical wave in the western Caribbean between Oct 6-10. During the tail end of a suppressive period, no development is probably a solid bet. But meh... we have seen greater upsets.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is awfully quiet going further out in time vs those recent very active runs. Looking more and more like a phantom for what once was an active period starting next weekend in the W Caribbean on quite a few GFS suite runs. So, unless this gets revived in future runs for next weekend, that means that at a minimum that there’s forecast time slippage.