2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
So models support a bit of a lull in development after Sam and Victor die?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Lol… as I imagined nothing but typical early October bias on the Gefs and gfs. Anyways should be a quite 1-2 weeks
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Latest CMC shows a developing TC in the WCAR on October 12, but unfortunately the run stops there
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Throw the 12z GFS out the window with development happening the EPAC instead.
The reason, it has been erroneously forecasting EPAC development during the past week or so in its med to long range.
The reason, it has been erroneously forecasting EPAC development during the past week or so in its med to long range.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
NDG wrote:Throw the 12z GFS out the window with development happening the EPAC instead.
The reason, it has been erroneously forecasting EPAC development during the past week or so in its med to long range.
Ok yeah so just checked, and I think it is pretty likely that that actually does not occur.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:Latest CMC shows a developing TC in the WCAR on October 12, but unfortunately the run stops there
NAVGEM 6Z at 144 hr. hits toward potential development in far W. Caribbean. I'd never hang my hat on that model but simply stating another model suggesting low surface pressures that align with ensemble members broadly "pinging" in that particular region. As for the 12Z GFS operational...., this run now depicts genesis more in line with what the ICON has broadly been suggesting and pushes a developing system over to the Pacific. And????????

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
“Yeah right” NAVGEM heading NE in the long-range:


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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AutoPenalti wrote:It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.
Exactly, and THAT's the point

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yes, the GFS has a NW Caribbean bias this time of year, but IMO the GFS has performed pretty good past few years and I dare say better than King Euro.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AutoPenalti wrote:It’s sniffing something though, GEFS bias doesn’t seem to be occurring here.
Sniffing alright. Maybe it is sniffing glue instead of smoking crack?

Since I last posted on the GEFS, it has cut back significantly on W Car genesis chances for ~10/8. So, it is looking more like that may be a GFS suite phantom. We'll see!
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It's over.
Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
toad strangler wrote:
It's over.
Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.
Lol.. the timing just didn’t make no sense there’s currently a suppressed KW over the western Atlantic right now. Things start to get into a more favorable look in about 2 weeks. But yep I will always be hesitant when the Gefs is all by itself.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
According to the CFS the last few days. Development looks to be from the 19th -22nd. So if this to be believed we should start to see something on the GFS in the next couple of days.
Sat 10/2 +408hrs

Fri 10/1

Thurs 9/30

Sat 10/2 +408hrs

Fri 10/1

Thurs 9/30

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
blp wrote:According to the CFS the last few days. Development looks to be from the 19th -22nd. So if this to be believed we should start to see something on the GFS in the next couple of days.
Sat 10/2 +408hrs
https://i.ibb.co/SKDhqZy/21101900-0200.gif
Fri 10/1
https://i.ibb.co/G077gmG/21102212-0100.gif
Thurs 9/30
https://i.ibb.co/JdL0FYC/21102200-3000.gif
So much for the "CFS has nothing for the rest of the season" calls... Although things can still change.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I know you’re being sarcastic, but everyday we go where models show nothing for 10 days or more we get that much closer to that door being closed.toad strangler wrote:
It's over.
Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
otowntiger wrote:I know you’re being sarcastic, but everyday we go where models show nothing for 10 days or more we get that much closer to that door being closed.toad strangler wrote:
It's over.
Shut this place down. See ya'll in the 2022 Indicators thread.
Models not showing anything for 10 days is hardly reliable.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
There will be a tropical wave in the western Caribbean between Oct 6-10. During the tail end of a suppressive period, no development is probably a solid bet. But meh... we have seen greater upsets.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 0Z GEFS is awfully quiet going further out in time vs those recent very active runs. Looking more and more like a phantom for what once was an active period starting next weekend in the W Caribbean on quite a few GFS suite runs. So, unless this gets revived in future runs for next weekend, that means that at a minimum that there’s forecast time slippage.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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