Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

Two things here: Over all La Nina ridging across the southern States not going away through the end of the year, and with NAO trending more negative over time along with a continuing -PNA ridging gets centered closer to TX. I'm sure wxman57 will appreciate this

https://i.imgur.com/Bb2khcQ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/whwHZkW.gif

This is pretty much exactly what I’ve been trying to say. It’s not a favorable look for cold in Texas. Yes the source region is cold but there’s no delivery mechanism to send it south.

[Quixotic]

If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.

[bubba hotep]

Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

[Iceresistance]

Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png

Did you place the picture in the wrong forum?

EDIT: No, you did not, I did not expect this at all.

[lsuhurricane]

No, Bubba is implying that ensembles that accurately portray a strong Typhoon Rai favor downstream ridging on the West Coast and Gulf of Alaska.

These same ensembles indicate that cold will be filtered south in the lower 48.

[Cpv17]

No, Bubba is implying that ensembles that accurately portray a strong Typhoon Rai favor downstream ridging on the West Coast and Gulf of Alaska.

These same ensembles indicate that cold will be filtered south in the lower 48.

Yeah, that actually makes a good amount of sense. Never thought about that.

[NDG]

Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png

That Typhoon is going to stay in the deep tropics of the SW Pacific, is probably not going to alter the pattern by much.

[NDG]

If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.

We already have the EPO turning negative, the SE/southern ridge should hold because of the -PNA.

[wxman57]

18Z GFS is almost saying "what cold front?" next weekend. Euro has temps down to the mid to upper 30s across the DFW area post-frontal. No winter weather in Texas. Big surprise... I'm just not seeing a change that will bring any really cold air south to Texas through December.

Whaaat? No 80s in late December? That is not acceptable sir.

Sorry, I require payback for last February. Last 3 runs of the GFS have 80F in Houston for Christmas Day. Great weather for biking. Dont worry, I'm sure there will be a freeze or two in January & February. La Nina winters are typically warm and dry in Texas, and this looks like a typical La Nina winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS ensembles are looking promising. If it holds, New Years will be interesting if we can get a Greenland block, and a block over Alaska.

Are you referring to this? Cuz if so I don’t really see what’s promising about this..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021121312/gfs-ens_z500a_name%20r_65.png

Have to remember that its an ensemble, but generally, when you have blocking in the arctic region, the upper level lows MUST go south into the United States. This brings down the cold air and the storminess.

[orangeblood]

Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

[Iceresistance]

Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

That might change in the next couple of weeks


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif

[harp]

Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

That might change in the next couple of weeks

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif

What does that mean?

[Iceresistance]

Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

That might change in the next couple of weeks

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif

What does that mean?

When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.

[TropicalTundra]

That might change in the next couple of weeks

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif

What does that mean?

When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.

Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.

[Iceresistance]

What does that mean?

When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.

Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.

You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.

[Cpv17]

When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.

Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.

You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.

What’s the PNA supposed to do?

[orangeblood]

Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.

You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.

What’s the PNA supposed to do?

Strong Negative through end of month

[Cpv17]

You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.

What’s the PNA supposed to do?

Strong Negative through end of month

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

[orangeblood]

What’s the PNA supposed to do?

Strong Negative through end of month

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario