Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#581 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:41 am

NDG wrote:Two things here: Over all La Nina ridging across the southern States not going away through the end of the year, and with NAO trending more negative over time along with a continuing -PNA ridging gets centered closer to TX. I'm sure wxman57 will appreciate this :D

https://i.imgur.com/Bb2khcQ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/whwHZkW.gif


This is pretty much exactly what I’ve been trying to say. It’s not a favorable look for cold in Texas. Yes the source region is cold but there’s no delivery mechanism to send it south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#582 Postby Quixotic » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:08 am

If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#583 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:41 am

Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#584 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:09 am

bubba hotep wrote:Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png


Did you place the picture in the wrong forum?

EDIT: No, you did not, I did not expect this at all.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#585 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:24 am

No, Bubba is implying that ensembles that accurately portray a strong Typhoon Rai favor downstream ridging on the West Coast and Gulf of Alaska.

These same ensembles indicate that cold will be filtered south in the lower 48.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#586 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:39 am

lsuhurricane wrote:No, Bubba is implying that ensembles that accurately portray a strong Typhoon Rai favor downstream ridging on the West Coast and Gulf of Alaska.

These same ensembles indicate that cold will be filtered south in the lower 48.


Yeah, that actually makes a good amount of sense. Never thought about that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#587 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:02 am

bubba hotep wrote:Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png


That Typhoon is going to stay in the deep tropics of the SW Pacific, is probably not going to alter the pattern by much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#588 Postby NDG » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:04 am

Quixotic wrote:If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.


We already have the EPO turning negative, the SE/southern ridge should hold because of the -PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#589 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:05 am

Ntxw wrote:
wxman57 wrote:18Z GFS is almost saying "what cold front?" next weekend. Euro has temps down to the mid to upper 30s across the DFW area post-frontal. No winter weather in Texas. Big surprise... I'm just not seeing a change that will bring any really cold air south to Texas through December.


Whaaat? No 80s in late December? That is not acceptable sir.


Sorry, I require payback for last February. Last 3 runs of the GFS have 80F in Houston for Christmas Day. Great weather for biking. Dont worry, I'm sure there will be a freeze or two in January & February. La Nina winters are typically warm and dry in Texas, and this looks like a typical La Nina winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#590 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:25 am

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:GFS ensembles are looking promising. If it holds, New Years will be interesting if we can get a Greenland block, and a block over Alaska.


Are you referring to this? Cuz if so I don’t really see what’s promising about this..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021121312/gfs-ens_z500a_name%20r_65.png


Have to remember that its an ensemble, but generally, when you have blocking in the arctic region, the upper level lows MUST go south into the United States. This brings down the cold air and the storminess.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#591 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:33 am

Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#592 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:39 am

orangeblood wrote:Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


That might change in the next couple of weeks

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#593 Postby harp » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:45 am

Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


That might change in the next couple of weeks

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
What does that mean?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#594 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:50 am

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Looks like we now have all 8 seasonal prediction models coming into decent agreement for the remainder of Winter.....good news for US Cold - really stout looking Negative EPO/WPO combo but bad news is a Positive AO. Hopefully, the EPO/WPO has a big enough punch to overwhelm. Siberian Air will be continually pouring into North America if this comes close to verifying

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGiVPgdWQAIVg92?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


That might change in the next couple of weeks

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Mid-December-AO-index.gif
What does that mean?


When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#595 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:
What does that mean?


When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.


Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.
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Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#596 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:12 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:What does that mean?


When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.


Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.


You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#597 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
When the AO goes Negative, the Polar Jet starts to kink & causes colder & unsettled weather across the CONUS.


Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.


You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.


What’s the PNA supposed to do?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#598 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:50 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:
Not necessarily across. I'm not exactly sure but generally -AO's tend to cause cold waves to splash down south. Like in Feb 2021, the AO was so strongly negative it was able to push arctic cold as far south as Mexico. +AO's are a constant northern cold where almost no cold leaks south. The jet streams stays almost completely straight up north. I would post a picture but for some reason Imgur seems to be down.


You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.


What’s the PNA supposed to do?


Strong Negative through end of month
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#599 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:59 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
You can use Gifyu as a replacement (May need to post a Image & the link like I do because the image may not load.), I remember the AO being extremely negative in February 2021, it fell to -5.

And yes, the AO is expected to turn negative in the next couple of weeks.


What’s the PNA supposed to do?


Strong Negative through end of month


Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#600 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:29 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
What’s the PNA supposed to do?


Strong Negative through end of month


Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?


Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
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