Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Quixotic]

-EPO and -WPO screams cross polar flow. 2013 - 2015 anybody?

[Quixotic]

If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.

We already have the EPO turning negative, the SE/southern ridge should hold because of the -PNA.

If we get that big block for EPO and WPO, it might take a few pushes but eventually the SE ridge will get tamped down. Led to the big ice storm in December of 2013. Cold came and couldn't shove off to the east. By the end of the winter, we were getting these fast moving storms that were scooting off quickly. I mean, yeah, it could cause problems but not f the other stuff comes together.

[Ntxw]

Strong Negative through end of month

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario

Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.

I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.

We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.

[Cpv17]

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario

Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.

I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.

We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.

That GOA low needs to gtfoh!

[orangeblood]

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario

Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.

I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.

We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.

With almost half the month in, DFW is averaging 60F....record highest average temp for the month of December is 54F, odds we break this record for warmest December on record set in 1933 ?? Looking at the long range, I'd say there's a really good chance to set that record this month

[Iceresistance]

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario

Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.

I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.

We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.

That GOA low needs to gtfoh!

You can blame the Colder than Normal SSTs at the GOA.

[orangeblood]

This is a nightmare forecast from the Euro Extended for the Southern Plains, looks very similar to what the end of December is going towards....Yikes!!!

[Brent]

Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario

Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.

I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.

We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.

With almost half the month in, DFW is averaging 60F....record highest average temp for the month of December is 54F, odds we break this record for warmest December on record set in 1933 ?? Looking at the long range, I'd say there's a really good chance to set that record this month

Yeah this pattern change can't happen soon enough. Our LOW tonight is 63. 64 is our all time warmest December low

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman predicting Blowing Dust for Tomorrow in Central Oklahoma, I've never seen this in a NWS-Norman forecast before.

[869MB]

Really good Twitter thread discussing the possibilities of the upcoming weather pattern over North America and the US…

https://twitter.com/griteater/status/14 ... 37350?s=21

[kingwood_tx1999]

Reports,models,blah,blab,blah..all this talk and no action lol..sounds like my wife

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[TropicalTundra]

I want SNOW!!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wxman57, are you going biking tomorrow? Perfect summer weather, not too hot, not too cold . Personally I like it being warm though too. But 63 as a low is a bit absurd I’m December. Then again, it’s called Texas weather for a reason, it’s Texas.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not giving up for snow this winter, but I'm thinking that Heat Miser is sadly countering December 2020 Snowstorms in Oklahoma & Texas

[Brent]

I'm not giving up for snow this winter, but I'm thinking that Heat Miser is sadly countering December 2020 Snowstorms in Oklahoma & Texas

I mean our best climo is still to come but this pattern is so far away from it

[bubba hotep]

Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.

https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png

That Typhoon is going to stay in the deep tropics of the SW Pacific, is probably not going to alter the pattern by much.

Convection in that region modulates the mid lat wave train, so while not as direct as a NPAC recurve, it certainly impacts the downstream.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, are you going biking tomorrow? Perfect summer weather, not too hot, not too cold . Personally I like it being warm though too. But 63 as a low is a bit absurd I’m December. Then again, it’s called Texas weather for a reason, it’s Texas.

I'm on the swing shift tomorrow (1:15pm-9:30pm). Need to "mow" my lawn before work to keep up with the falling leaves. Low in the upper 60s tonight with a high in the low 80s tomorrow. Not too cold to mow in shorts.

If you're looking for cold in Texas, you may have to wait until the second or third week of January. Nothing before New Year's, at least.

[Iceresistance]

Let Heat Miser have his revenge in December, then we will get our revenge against that in January/February 2022!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What’s the PNA supposed to do?

Strong Negative through end of month

Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?

In most cases, but if there is blocking in the arctic, the UL will not able to climb NE like they normally do, they will traverse the entire country.

With that said a -PNA isnt the best for Texas

[TeamPlayersBlue]

NWS-Norman predicting Blowing Dust for Tomorrow in Central Oklahoma, I've never seen this in a NWS-Norman forecast before.

Predicting 100 mph gusts in the foothills here in Denver. Going to get Western out here.