Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NDG wrote:Quixotic wrote:If we get a -EPO, the SE ridge will not hold up. A -NAO would hasten this.
We already have the EPO turning negative, the SE/southern ridge should hold because of the -PNA.
If we get that big block for EPO and WPO, it might take a few pushes but eventually the SE ridge will get tamped down. Led to the big ice storm in December of 2013. Cold came and couldn't shove off to the east. By the end of the winter, we were getting these fast moving storms that were scooting off quickly. I mean, yeah, it could cause problems but not f the other stuff comes together.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Strong Negative through end of month
Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?
Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.
I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.
We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?
Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.
I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.
We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.
That GOA low needs to gtfoh!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?
Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.
I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.
We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.
With almost half the month in, DFW is averaging 60F....record highest average temp for the month of December is 54F, odds we break this record for warmest December on record set in 1933 ?? Looking at the long range, I'd say there's a really good chance to set that record this month
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.
I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.
We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.
That GOA low needs to gtfoh!
You can blame the Colder than Normal SSTs at the GOA.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
This is a nightmare forecast from the Euro Extended for the Southern Plains, looks very similar to what the end of December is going towards....Yikes!!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Not necessarily, NAO looks like its going in the tank as well. My main concern is the main axis of ridge centered over Texas in this scenario
Check out the Hudson blocking/Eastern Canada on the Euro. Lets get through this warm stretch and allow the blocking to settle and see how the guidance is catching up to the tropical forcing.
I've been following the Christmas Eve/Christmas forecast and run to run has been huge swings. I don't think the models have settled yet.
We are just now entering the big GOA low pattern that generates the torch. The ridge bringing in the cold to NA hasn't even appeared in real time yet.
With almost half the month in, DFW is averaging 60F....record highest average temp for the month of December is 54F, odds we break this record for warmest December on record set in 1933 ?? Looking at the long range, I'd say there's a really good chance to set that record this month
Yeah this pattern change can't happen soon enough. Our LOW tonight is 63.

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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NWS-Norman predicting Blowing Dust for Tomorrow in Central Oklahoma, I've never seen this in a NWS-Norman forecast before.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Really good Twitter thread discussing the possibilities of the upcoming weather pattern over North America and the US…
https://twitter.com/griteater/status/14 ... 37350?s=21
https://twitter.com/griteater/status/14 ... 37350?s=21
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Reports,models,blah,blab,blah..all this talk and no action lol..sounds like my wife

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk


Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
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- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I want SNOW!!






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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Wxman57, are you going biking tomorrow? Perfect summer weather, not too hot, not too cold
. Personally I like it being warm though too. But 63 as a low is a bit absurd I’m December. Then again, it’s called Texas weather for a reason, it’s Texas.



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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I'm not giving up for snow this winter, but I'm thinking that Heat Miser is sadly countering December 2020 Snowstorms in Oklahoma & Texas
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:I'm not giving up for snow this winter, but I'm thinking that Heat Miser is sadly countering December 2020 Snowstorms in Oklahoma & Texas
I mean our best climo is still to come but this pattern is so far away from it
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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NDG wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Reminder thst ensembles smooth things out in the longer range and that can make the pattern flip harder to see (earlier flips vs later flips get smoothed out to look like stagnation). Do your cluster analysis based on ensemble members that have a strong system in the SW Pacific.
https://i.ibb.co/8ssG7zQ/20211214-093602.png
That Typhoon is going to stay in the deep tropics of the SW Pacific, is probably not going to alter the pattern by much.
Convection in that region modulates the mid lat wave train, so while not as direct as a NPAC recurve, it certainly impacts the downstream.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Wxman57, are you going biking tomorrow? Perfect summer weather, not too hot, not too cold. Personally I like it being warm though too. But 63 as a low is a bit absurd I’m December. Then again, it’s called Texas weather for a reason, it’s Texas.
I'm on the swing shift tomorrow (1:15pm-9:30pm). Need to "mow" my lawn before work to keep up with the falling leaves. Low in the upper 60s tonight with a high in the low 80s tomorrow. Not too cold to mow in shorts.

If you're looking for cold in Texas, you may have to wait until the second or third week of January. Nothing before New Year's, at least.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Let Heat Miser have his revenge in December, then we will get our revenge against that in January/February 2022! 

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
What’s the PNA supposed to do?
Strong Negative through end of month
Won’t that just make the southeast ridge even stronger?
In most cases, but if there is blocking in the arctic, the UL will not able to climb NE like they normally do, they will traverse the entire country.
With that said a -PNA isnt the best for Texas
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:NWS-Norman predicting Blowing Dust for Tomorrow in Central Oklahoma, I've never seen this in a NWS-Norman forecast before.
Predicting 100 mph gusts in the foothills here in Denver. Going to get Western out here.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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