Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Texas Snowman]

Please, please let the 0z GFS be right for once. What a pattern shift noted at the 10-day mark if so.

I'm absolutely positive that the GFS will be right about a pattern change beyond 10 days this time.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

Lol, I don’t think Santa visits internet trolls!

[kingwood_tx1999]

Please, please let the 0z GFS be right for once. What a pattern shift noted at the 10-day mark if so.

I'm absolutely positive that the GFS will be right about a pattern change beyond 10 days this time.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

Lol, I don’t think Santa visits internet trolls!

He needs coal in his stocking and ALOT of it for teasing us!

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[Iceresistance]

The CPC forecast is the worst I've ever seen for the next 1-2 weeks.

[Texas Snowman]

@JeffLindner1 — Radar indicated rotation in SW San Jacinto County. Tornado warning in effect until 1115am #houwx #txwx

[Ntxw]

Chilly day today puts me in a mood for an optimistic post.

Do not lose hope my friends despite the coming torchmas. We torch but the broader pattern has changed. As prior mention the MJO forecast thus far have verified and the overall Cryosphere is beginning to set up the high latitude blocking (it hasn't happened yet but on the verge.) As a result the AO forecast is on the road to tank.



So for the first time this young meteorological winter the AO is now negative. That means the Arctic and Polar regions is ripe to disperse the bottled cold air eventually. We have plenty of it to disperse.

Needless it has happened before, can it happen again? Is the Arctic regions ready to go inside out and dislodge itself?


Some posts mid to late Jan 2021. It was desolate with the same ridge/trough configuration we are in now.

Go from exciting times to doom and gloom just like that Gotta love it.

This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

As the cold built in Canada eventually the -PNA relaxed and the -NAO/AO came. It was then unloaded...can we do it again but earlier?

Some posted maps from that period.

Maybe?...Wxman57's miscalculation is that the more he fortifies his seemingly impenetrable wall...the more it is pressured up behind it just waiting...for now...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wxman57 is going to fortify the wall, and it appears his wall is working so far.

[Iceresistance]

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!?

[harp]

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!?

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…

[Ntxw]

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!?

Because it's 2 weeks out .

All seriousness I still feel decently good about the changes though that was portrayed over a week ago. We just cleaned through the 500mb torch set up, and we're breaking it down with a couple of cool offs. One more torch pump from west coast trough then comes the mature blocking.

The birds are flurrying.

[Iceresistance]

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!?

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…

Also, did someone turn on the Hose?


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

Heat Miser needs to run if this verifies.

[Ntxw]

And not to negate the elephant in the room. Big -AO's during La Ninas have a tendency for massive cold dumps in the NHEM. The question always is where is the cold located when it dumps..

[Ntxw]

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!?

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…

Also, did someone turn on the Hose?

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

Heat Miser needs to run if this verifies.

Canada supermodel: YES!

T-Polar Vortex vacates it's residency from 60N. Forced out by warm ridges.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS trending colder in the long range compared to 6z

[kingwood_tx1999]

Yall dont play with my feelings now..

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[Ntxw]

We totally believe it. It will happen 300+ hours out.

GEFS

[kingwood_tx1999]

We totally believe it. It will happen 300+ hours out.

GEFS

I refuse to believe it at 300 hrs out..

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[Ntxw]

That wall better hold up. Hopefully the models are now getting into mirror view and picking up the AO shift after the Pacific shift.

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw, the voice of reason and hope.

As compared to you know who.

[Cpv17]

That wall better hold up. Hopefully the models are now getting into mirror view and picking up the AO shift after the Pacific shift.

https://i.imgur.com/ajgxACo.png

https://i.imgur.com/eL0l8oJ.png

The Euro actually looks pretty decent.

So the Euro, GFS, and CMC all look decent right now?

[orangeblood]

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!