Texas Winter 2021-2022

[AustinTXResident]

Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

Correct. Much easier to set records at ABIA because of its short climate record.

As of the 28th, 2021 is 3.8° clear of 1933 for warmest December on record at Mabry. It's a rout of historic proportions, beating 2019's huge margin over 2nd place for warmest September on record.

[AustinTXResident]

Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png

Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

[utweather]

I've swam outdoors a couple of times this month. I could've today and this week if I went out before dark. I've never swam past early to mid October because normally the water is too cold then. Running outside has been incredibly nice though. AC is currently running.

[orangeblood]

Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png

Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

[Texas Snowman]

Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

[AustinTXResident]

Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The claim that electric utilities and natural gas pipeline companies relied on the ECMWF model to the exclusion of other models and human meteorologists is preposterous on its face. And no investigatory report about what happened mentions it. Besides, did the South Texas Nuclear Project rip insulation off water pipes (that froze and caused a shutdown) just because the ECMWF was late to the show?

[Cpv17]

Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

That storm has a nice hook. Looks pretty nasty on radar.

[Brent]

Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

That storm has a nice hook. Looks pretty nasty on radar.

Luckily seems to have lifted for now no more debris signature

[Brent]

Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

You know that's a good point. I remember a bunch of people saying they had no idea it would be that bad... Well yeah if you had hugged the Euro clearly it wasnt going to be

[Cerlin]

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.

[orangeblood]

What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

IMHO Models should be judged by the most extreme/volatile situations aka when we need them most. The Euro failed us back in Feb. doesn’t mean it’s not useful, just that the gold standard label is extremely misplaced

[rwfromkansas]

Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.

I would issue a Winter Storm Watch soon for Southern & Eastern Kansas if I were you.

Gotta collaborate that, but I'm sure it will get brought up tonight. The ice showing up more makes it easier to do that though. I do want to see more consistency. If the Euro caves to the GFS and CMC I'm sure I'll get a call from WPC.

My dad in McPherson will get to use his snowblower maybe.

Jealous.

[ElectricStorm]

Slight risk up for N TX/SE OK for Friday. Who needs snow when you can have storms?

But seriously hopefully we at least get something this weekend (except ice). Not a huge cold weather fan but I do love me some snow a few times a year.

[Edwards Limestone]

Not trying to get off topic, but obvious troll is (very) obvious. It’s almost on every page now.

Long time lurker here that enjoys reading everyone’s takes. It’s always been a cordial discussion. The recent trolling/pedantic stuff is not so enjoyable.

Feel free to delete this post. Just wanted to put in my .02 for what it’s worth.

[wxman57]

Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

The Texas Heat Miser (wxman57) continues his firm grip on the theromstat.

Update. We did set new records at the airport (83) and Camp Mabry (82).

84 here in Houston yesterday. 80s through Saturday. Sunday's high will struggle to reach 50 degrees, followed by a possible light freeze Monday morning before it starts warming up again. I don't see any significant frozen precip for Texas this weekend. The front around the 8th looks relatively weak now. Another front around the 11th may be a little less cold than Saturday's. Cold air won't hang around too long in this flow pattern. Not seeing any 80s in Houston after Saturday.

[AustinTXResident]

It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event

The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.

I haven't seen such a forecast from the ECMWF. It's not currently forecasting that.

[EnnisTx]

The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.

I haven't seen such a forecast from the ECMWF. It's not currently forecasting that.

Forecasts can change by the hour, maybe instead of acting like a hall monitor, you can actually post what it’s currently forecasting?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Bust this morning. Made it down to 32. If I recall the forecast was for around 37-38.

[Garnetcat5]

Just worried about my tomato plants and fruit trees here in far southwest Houston. Is there any hope they will survive? My garden has been in it’s full glory! Makes me sick to lose it over a few hours of freezing weather.

[Ntxw]

Just worried about my tomato plants and fruit trees here in far southwest Houston. Is there any hope they will survive? My garden has been in it’s full glory! Makes me sick to lose it over a few hours of freezing weather.

I would definitely protect them if you can. As with dense, cold air from a cold source region there is always the possibility it may run a few degrees colder than forecast especially if you are outside the immediate urban locations.