Texas Winter 2021-2022

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AustinTXResident

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1441 Postby AustinTXResident » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.


Correct. Much easier to set records at ABIA because of its short climate record.

As of the 28th, 2021 is 3.8° clear of 1933 for warmest December on record at Mabry. It's a rout of historic proportions, beating 2019's huge margin over 2nd place for warmest September on record.
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AustinTXResident

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1442 Postby AustinTXResident » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:09 pm

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png


Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO


What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1443 Postby utweather » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:17 pm

I've swam outdoors a couple of times this month. I could've today and this week if I went out before dark. I've never swam past early to mid October because normally the water is too cold then. Running outside has been incredibly nice though. AC is currently running.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1444 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:17 pm

AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Lol at the difference between the 12z GEFS & EPS in the longer range.

However, if this verifies then pack away the winter gear.

https://i.ibb.co/hC2GVpL/20211229-140706.png


Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO


What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?


It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1445 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:24 pm

Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
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AustinTXResident

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1446 Postby AustinTXResident » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:31 pm

orangeblood wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO


What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?


It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event


The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The claim that electric utilities and natural gas pipeline companies relied on the ECMWF model to the exclusion of other models and human meteorologists is preposterous on its face. And no investigatory report about what happened mentions it. Besides, did the South Texas Nuclear Project rip insulation off water pipes (that froze and caused a shutdown) just because the ECMWF was late to the show?
Last edited by AustinTXResident on Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1447 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:32 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!


That storm has a nice hook. Looks pretty nasty on radar.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1448 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Texas Snowman wrote:Another rough night of severe weather east of here. And as if we haven’t seen enough of these kinds of tornado warnings this month, another PDS tornado warning tonight in Alabama…

————-

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

ALC021-117-300445-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211230T0445Z/
Chilton AL-Shelby AL-
1012 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHILTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

At 1012 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Calera, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!


That storm has a nice hook. Looks pretty nasty on radar.


Luckily seems to have lifted for now no more debris signature
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1449 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:40 pm

orangeblood wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Euro doesn’t have a clue about where the MJO is headed, it continues to swing back towards Phase 6 but never materializes. It looks like we’re going to 8, where the GFS has it correctly. Toss the Euro IMO


What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?


It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event


You know that's a good point. I remember a bunch of people saying they had no idea it would be that bad... Well yeah if you had hugged the Euro clearly it wasnt going to be :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1450 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:43 pm

AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?


It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event


The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1451 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 30, 2021 12:02 am

AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
What supports the gold standard ECMWF's "cluelessness" about this?


It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event


The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?


IMHO Models should be judged by the most extreme/volatile situations aka when we need them most. The Euro failed us back in Feb. doesn’t mean it’s not useful, just that the gold standard label is extremely misplaced
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1452 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:15 am

TheProfessor wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:Okay yep, that's a bonafide winter storm on the NAM. Yikes.


I would issue a Winter Storm Watch soon for Southern & Eastern Kansas if I were you.



Gotta collaborate that, but I'm sure it will get brought up tonight. The ice showing up more makes it easier to do that though. I do want to see more consistency. If the Euro caves to the GFS and CMC I'm sure I'll get a call from WPC.


My dad in McPherson will get to use his snowblower maybe.

Jealous.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1453 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:40 am

Slight risk up for N TX/SE OK for Friday. Who needs snow when you can have storms? :lol: :spam:

But seriously hopefully we at least get something this weekend (except ice). Not a huge cold weather fan but I do love me some snow a few times a year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1454 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Dec 30, 2021 2:41 am

Not trying to get off topic, but obvious troll is (very) obvious. It’s almost on every page now.

Long time lurker here that enjoys reading everyone’s takes. It’s always been a cordial discussion. The recent trolling/pedantic stuff is not so enjoyable.

Feel free to delete this post. Just wanted to put in my .02 for what it’s worth.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1455 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:42 am

Portastorm wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Haven't seen the official word yet but am hearing we (Austin) set a new record at the airport for daily max temp and tied the record at the other reporting site in town (Camp Mabry). We hit 81 degrees at both locations.

The Texas Heat Miser (wxman57) continues his firm grip on the theromstat. :cry:


Update. We did set new records at the airport (83) and Camp Mabry (82).


84 here in Houston yesterday. 80s through Saturday. Sunday's high will struggle to reach 50 degrees, followed by a possible light freeze Monday morning before it starts warming up again. I don't see any significant frozen precip for Texas this weekend. The front around the 8th looks relatively weak now. Another front around the 11th may be a little less cold than Saturday's. Cold air won't hang around too long in this flow pattern. Not seeing any 80s in Houston after Saturday. :cry:
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AustinTXResident

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1456 Postby AustinTXResident » Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:51 am

Cerlin wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
It’s last 2-3 weeks of MJO forecasts, it’s one of the poorest performers recently with regards to the MJO.

Euro “gold standard” label got thrown out for us on this forum after Feb Historical outbreak…it was garbage and probably costs this state millions due to the fact that many Electric providers were hugging it leading up to the event


The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.


I haven't seen such a forecast from the ECMWF. It's not currently forecasting that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1457 Postby EnnisTx » Thu Dec 30, 2021 8:39 am

AustinTXResident wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
AustinTXResident wrote:
The statistics support its accuracy over others. If February 2021 in Texas were the only criterion to judge models, then everything except GEM and ICON are garbage.

Where is the objective verification of ECMWF's recent lack of skill regarding ths MJO?

The MJO has failed to retrograde to Phase 6 despite numerous attempts from the Euro to say it would for weeks now, thus casting doubt in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the MJO compared to other models.


I haven't seen such a forecast from the ECMWF. It's not currently forecasting that.


Forecasts can change by the hour, maybe instead of acting like a hall monitor, you can actually post what it’s currently forecasting?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1458 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Dec 30, 2021 9:30 am

Bust this morning. Made it down to 32. If I recall the forecast was for around 37-38.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1459 Postby Garnetcat5 » Thu Dec 30, 2021 9:52 am

Just worried about my tomato plants and fruit trees here in far southwest Houston. Is there any hope they will survive? My garden has been in it’s full glory! Makes me sick to lose it over a few hours of freezing weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1460 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 30, 2021 9:54 am

Garnetcat5 wrote:Just worried about my tomato plants and fruit trees here in far southwest Houston. Is there any hope they will survive? My garden has been in it’s full glory! Makes me sick to lose it over a few hours of freezing weather.


I would definitely protect them if you can. As with dense, cold air from a cold source region there is always the possibility it may run a few degrees colder than forecast especially if you are outside the immediate urban locations.
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