Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Golf7270
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1861 Postby Golf7270 » Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:42 pm

Ntxw, did you see the soi with a big drop to -20.65? Does that mean anything moving forward?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1862 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:04 pm

The GFS shows that day 10 storm up here again. Same timeframe from the other day
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1863 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:55 pm

Tornado Warning just north of Houston right now :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1864 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Tornado Warning just north of Houston right now :eek:


Apparently there must have been a pretty good storm over me early this morning because I just checked the rain gauge and measured 1.65”. There’s not even any standing water anywhere so that goes to show how dry it was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1865 Postby WinterMax » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:51 pm

NTXW, I hear the Aleutian low/West Coast ridge will be setting up? Hear anything on that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1866 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:55 pm

Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1867 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:18 pm

WinterMax wrote:NTXW, I hear the Aleutian low/West Coast ridge will be setting up? Hear anything on that?


Yes that is part of the retrogression I highlighted we'd transport towards. It's a very favorable set up for snow in the southern plains, especially peak climo. I suspect we will see multiple threats. The models haven't zoned in on any particular pieces of energy yet, likely as they draw closer.

Golf7270 wrote:Ntxw, did you see the soi with a big drop to -20.65? Does that mean anything moving forward?


SOI will stay relatively low given the convection around dateline. We are in a very El Nino like state. Cloudy, coolish days and lots of drizzle etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1868 Postby TropicalTundra » Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:02 pm

orangeblood wrote:Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png


CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1869 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:34 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png


CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.


It’s still a good ways out but right now the models don’t really have much moisture with next weekends possible system and aren’t nearly cold enough either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1870 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png


CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.


It’s still a good ways out but right now the models don’t really have much moisture with next weekends possible system and aren’t nearly cold enough either.


Yeah even the promising end of the week system hardly has rain now at least up here. Still having a problem getting significant moisture
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1871 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:47 am

Interesting night of weather over the Houston area tonight. Some areas have had up to a foot of rain along with numerous tornado warnings and some flash flood warnings. It’s pretty much been crickets around my area though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1872 Postby harp » Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:02 am

The latest GFS remains boring. I’m trying to hold out hope, but it remains harder to do. But, I’m not throwing in the towel just yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1873 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:05 am

Short lived CC drop on that tor warned cell in Houston. Haven't seen any official confirmation yet but there was likely a short lived tornado just north of I-10 a few minutes ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1874 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:25 am

Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1875 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:32 am

Weather Dude wrote:Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.


Saw that line approaching SW Houston around midnight and I unplugged all the computers because of the lightning. The line stalled just to my west and dropped 3-6 inches of rain there. Only got 0.1" of rain overnight in SW Houston. Total rain this weekend less than half an inch. Low this morning was 72 degrees, though, which is much better than 30 deg.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1876 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:05 am

wxman57 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.


Saw that line approaching SW Houston around midnight and I unplugged all the computers because of the lightning. The line stalled just to my west and dropped 3-6 inches of rain there. Only got 0.1" of rain overnight in SW Houston. Total rain this weekend less than half an inch. Low this morning was 72 degrees, though, which is much better than 30 deg.


I used to keep stuff plugged in even in thunderstorms, I do unplug them if the storms are potentially violent, especially if there is a crazy amount of lightning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1877 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 12:23 pm

Not Texas related but the GFS is basically showing a cat 2 Hurricane off the east coast in a few days. That’s wack!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1878 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:21 pm

What’s up with the Euro? The GFS and CMC both have a storm system coming through here next weekend. The Euro has nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1879 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:38 pm

You’d think with this setup, we’d be having a pretty cold outbreak?

Image

But instead it shows a torch:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1880 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:51 pm



The 500mb patterns is not matching the lower level patterns.
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