Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Golf7270]

Ntxw, did you see the soi with a big drop to -20.65? Does that mean anything moving forward?

[Brent]

The GFS shows that day 10 storm up here again. Same timeframe from the other day

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Warning just north of Houston right now

[Cpv17]

Tornado Warning just north of Houston right now

Apparently there must have been a pretty good storm over me early this morning because I just checked the rain gauge and measured 1.65”. There’s not even any standing water anywhere so that goes to show how dry it was.

[WinterMax]

NTXW, I hear the Aleutian low/West Coast ridge will be setting up? Hear anything on that?

[orangeblood]

Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

[Ntxw]

NTXW, I hear the Aleutian low/West Coast ridge will be setting up? Hear anything on that?

Yes that is part of the retrogression I highlighted we'd transport towards. It's a very favorable set up for snow in the southern plains, especially peak climo. I suspect we will see multiple threats. The models haven't zoned in on any particular pieces of energy yet, likely as they draw closer.

Ntxw, did you see the soi with a big drop to -20.65? Does that mean anything moving forward?

SOI will stay relatively low given the convection around dateline. We are in a very El Nino like state. Cloudy, coolish days and lots of drizzle etc.

[TropicalTundra]

Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png

CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.

[Cpv17]

Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png

CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.

It’s still a good ways out but right now the models don’t really have much moisture with next weekends possible system and aren’t nearly cold enough either.

[Brent]

Next weekend starting to look pretty intriguing for the southern plains, several GEFS members holding a substantial amount of energy back over Northern Mexico. With cold air aloft, could be a decent snow maker if a system comes together

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/z500_anom/1641664800/1642334400-5JPzW9Dk6xY.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/t850/1641664800/1642356000-59gWXhZd2A0.png

CMC and i'm pretty certain the CMC ENS both had a storm on them on the 0z run. CMC had snow as well as some cold in the teens to low 20s across South Texas. The new CMC 12z has almost no cold or precip. That GFS ENS run looks pretty unrealistic for next week. I'd say it will trend around 10-15 degrees warmer next run.

It’s still a good ways out but right now the models don’t really have much moisture with next weekends possible system and aren’t nearly cold enough either.

Yeah even the promising end of the week system hardly has rain now at least up here. Still having a problem getting significant moisture

[Cpv17]

Interesting night of weather over the Houston area tonight. Some areas have had up to a foot of rain along with numerous tornado warnings and some flash flood warnings. It’s pretty much been crickets around my area though.

[harp]

The latest GFS remains boring. I’m trying to hold out hope, but it remains harder to do. But, I’m not throwing in the towel just yet.

[ElectricStorm]

Short lived CC drop on that tor warned cell in Houston. Haven't seen any official confirmation yet but there was likely a short lived tornado just north of I-10 a few minutes ago.

[ElectricStorm]

Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.

[wxman57]

Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.

Saw that line approaching SW Houston around midnight and I unplugged all the computers because of the lightning. The line stalled just to my west and dropped 3-6 inches of rain there. Only got 0.1" of rain overnight in SW Houston. Total rain this weekend less than half an inch. Low this morning was 72 degrees, though, which is much better than 30 deg.

[Iceresistance]

Likely a tornado on the ground near Humble, TX...

This is gonna be a long night for those in the Houston area between all the flash flooding and tornado potential. Tornado threat not anything crazy but several of those cells have some decent rotation so it wouldn't take much for something weak to touch down.

Saw that line approaching SW Houston around midnight and I unplugged all the computers because of the lightning. The line stalled just to my west and dropped 3-6 inches of rain there. Only got 0.1" of rain overnight in SW Houston. Total rain this weekend less than half an inch. Low this morning was 72 degrees, though, which is much better than 30 deg.

I used to keep stuff plugged in even in thunderstorms, I do unplug them if the storms are potentially violent, especially if there is a crazy amount of lightning.

[Cpv17]

Not Texas related but the GFS is basically showing a cat 2 Hurricane off the east coast in a few days. That’s wack!

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the Euro? The GFS and CMC both have a storm system coming through here next weekend. The Euro has nothing.

[Cpv17]

You’d think with this setup, we’d be having a pretty cold outbreak?



But instead it shows a torch:

[Iceresistance]

You’d think with this setup, we’d be having a pretty cold outbreak?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.png

But instead it shows a torch:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010912/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_43.png

The 500mb patterns is not matching the lower level patterns.