Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Little or no rain and no winter weather across TX this weekend on the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs. Nothing on Canadian, either. GFS & Canadian no longer have a closed upper low over NW Mexico this weekend. GFS has it west of Baja, Canadian closer to Baja. Euro keeps it west of Baja, too. Good agreement now. GFS has mostly well above normal temps across Texas for the next couple of weeks. Progressive pattern keeps pushing the cold air off to the east rather than south down the Plains.

GEFS says different and has 1-2” of rain over the next couple weeks.

That's mostly beyond 10 days and confined to SE TX.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My buddies in Houston mentioned the crazy lightning Sat night and I saw a MASSIVE tornado signature with the cell.

[Haris]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

[rwfromkansas]

Well, there goes another one. Hopefully, models will flip back.

[gpsnowman]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

An I-20 special except not special to the west.

[orangeblood]

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

[harp]

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?

[orangeblood]

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?

At certain times....but as documented on several occasions on this forum, when winter extremes are on the table it appears to be the most reliable

[orangeblood]

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?

Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold

[cheezyWXguy]

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?

Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-2Z7z3BEdU7M.png

I agree with you and think there is some reason for hope here, but I would like to see the coldest anomalies further west in the great plains. Maybe we can get lucky with a short duration passing shot in this pattern, but it seems like we’ll have to wait until at least the last few days of January for the MJO to fully cooperate and give us a more west-based pattern. Also agree that the CMC does well with extreme situations, I’m just not seeing one in the models yet.

[Iceresistance]

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?

Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-2Z7z3BEdU7M.png

I agree with you and think there is some reason for hope here, but I would like to see the coldest anomalies further west in the great plains. Maybe we can get lucky with a short duration passing shot in this pattern, but it seems like we’ll have to wait until at least the last few days of January for the MJO to fully cooperate and give us a more west-based pattern. Also agree that the CMC does well with extreme situations, I’m just not seeing one in the models yet.

(on the bolded): I've yet to see the MJO updates, there are no updates on the Climate Prediction Center since January 5th.

And also, this may get pushed back into February, & it seems like the February is the prime month for something like this. (As demonstrated just the year before)

[WinterMax]

I could go on vacation to Oymyakon, Russia. -35 for highs and -55 for lows commonly.

The long icy road to Oymyakon, was also the grave yard of the million people who built the road, as they froze 1 meter apart. Their bones were incorporated into the material used to build the road.
.
The "road of bones" was built in the early 1930's.

This is the saddest most cruel weather related story I've ever read

[Brent]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

Tennessee needs to share

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold

[Iceresistance]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

Tennessee needs to share

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold

To be Honest, the States along & east of the Mississippi River has their turn to have snow right now, our turn may come in February.

[HockeyTx82]

I could go on vacation to Oymyakon, Russia. -35 for highs and -55 for lows commonly.

The long icy road to Oymyakon, was also the grave yard of the million people who built the road, as they froze 1 meter apart. Their bones were incorporated into the material used to build the road.
.
The "road of bones" was built in the early 1930's.

This is the saddest most cruel weather related story I've ever read

I looked that up because I never heard of it. That's pretty macabre and apparently happened under Stalin's rule.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

Tennessee needs to share

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold

Dry cold is better than 80 and humid.

[Brent]

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

Tennessee needs to share

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold

Dry cold is better than 80 and humid.

Oh I'm not arguing that. The pattern is still better than it was in December and I have no issue with the highs in the 50s and near 60 like this week but I average decent snow up here and it's time to get moving I just don't want to see a high of 25 again and no moisture

[txtwister78]

In regard to the weekend (near term), the Euro and CMC are vastly different than what the GFS is showing temp wise and even regarding precip.

[orangeblood]

To highlight just how terrible the GFS is handling these cold airmasses, check out the low temp forecast tonight for DFW. Keep in mind the NWS is forecasting a low of 33 F, GFS Global "Gold Standard" model is forecasting a low of 43F



Even the Ensemble members are garbage with every single member at 40 F and above

[txtwister78]

FWIW ICON also showing similar setup as CMC and Euro with some rain mixed with snow over parts of West TX