Texas Winter 2021-2022

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1901 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 11:27 am

Cpv17 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Little or no rain and no winter weather across TX this weekend on the 00Z and 06Z GFS runs. Nothing on Canadian, either. GFS & Canadian no longer have a closed upper low over NW Mexico this weekend. GFS has it west of Baja, Canadian closer to Baja. Euro keeps it west of Baja, too. Good agreement now. GFS has mostly well above normal temps across Texas for the next couple of weeks. Progressive pattern keeps pushing the cold air off to the east rather than south down the Plains.


GEFS says different and has 1-2” of rain over the next couple weeks.


That's mostly beyond 10 days and confined to SE TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1902 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:50 pm

My buddies in Houston mentioned the crazy lightning Sat night and I saw a MASSIVE tornado signature with the cell.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1903 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:51 pm

South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1904 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:02 pm

Well, there goes another one. Hopefully, models will flip back.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1905 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:04 pm

Haris wrote:South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC

An I-20 special except not special to the west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1906 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:22 pm

From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1907 Postby harp » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:26 pm

orangeblood wrote:From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1908 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:37 pm

harp wrote:
orangeblood wrote:From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?


At certain times....but as documented on several occasions on this forum, when winter extremes are on the table it appears to be the most reliable
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1909 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:40 pm

harp wrote:
orangeblood wrote:From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?


Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1910 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:
harp wrote:
orangeblood wrote:From one of the most accurate low level cold models we have, the trend is towards the coldest stretch of winter so far occurring for the last 1/2 to 1/3rd of this month. This is over a 5 day time frame starting around Jan 20/21st. Really impressive for a mean ENS run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-WW0xpuatdBs.png

Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?


Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-2Z7z3BEdU7M.png

I agree with you and think there is some reason for hope here, but I would like to see the coldest anomalies further west in the great plains. Maybe we can get lucky with a short duration passing shot in this pattern, but it seems like we’ll have to wait until at least the last few days of January for the MJO to fully cooperate and give us a more west-based pattern. Also agree that the CMC does well with extreme situations, I’m just not seeing one in the models yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1911 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:55 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
harp wrote:Doesn’t the CMC typically have a cold bias?


Here is the GFS ENS for comparison during same time frame, isn't too far off particularly if you factor in its warm bias with low level cold
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_anom_5day/1641816000/1643198400-2Z7z3BEdU7M.png

I agree with you and think there is some reason for hope here, but I would like to see the coldest anomalies further west in the great plains. Maybe we can get lucky with a short duration passing shot in this pattern, but it seems like we’ll have to wait until at least the last few days of January for the MJO to fully cooperate and give us a more west-based pattern. Also agree that the CMC does well with extreme situations, I’m just not seeing one in the models yet.


(on the bolded): I've yet to see the MJO updates, there are no updates on the Climate Prediction Center since January 5th.

And also, this may get pushed back into February, & it seems like the February is the prime month for something like this. (As demonstrated just the year before)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1912 Postby WinterMax » Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:36 pm

I could go on vacation to Oymyakon, Russia. -35 for highs and -55 for lows commonly.

The long icy road to Oymyakon, was also the grave yard of the million people who built the road, as they froze 1 meter apart. Their bones were incorporated into the material used to build the road.
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The "road of bones" was built in the early 1930's.

This is the saddest most cruel weather related story I've ever read
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1913 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:40 pm

Haris wrote:South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC


Tennessee needs to share :spam:

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1914 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:52 pm

Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC


Tennessee needs to share :spam:

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold


To be Honest, the States along & east of the Mississippi River has their turn to have snow right now, our turn may come in February.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1915 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:07 pm

WinterMax wrote:I could go on vacation to Oymyakon, Russia. -35 for highs and -55 for lows commonly.

The long icy road to Oymyakon, was also the grave yard of the million people who built the road, as they froze 1 meter apart. Their bones were incorporated into the material used to build the road.
.
The "road of bones" was built in the early 1930's.

This is the saddest most cruel weather related story I've ever read


I looked that up because I never heard of it. That's pretty macabre and apparently happened under Stalin's rule.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1916 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:11 pm

Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC


Tennessee needs to share :spam:

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold


Dry cold is better than 80 and humid.
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1917 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:23 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:South east looking good for snow soon. Tennessee getting slammed this winter. Could get snow as far S as Atlanta to Charleston SC


Tennessee needs to share :spam:

I'm still not impressed with this pattern it looks like all the fun is east of us. I have no interest in more dry cold


Dry cold is better than 80 and humid.


Oh I'm not arguing that. The pattern is still better than it was in December and I have no issue with the highs in the 50s and near 60 like this week but I average decent snow up here and it's time to get moving :lol: I just don't want to see a high of 25 again and no moisture
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1918 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:30 pm

In regard to the weekend (near term), the Euro and CMC are vastly different than what the GFS is showing temp wise and even regarding precip.


Image

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1919 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:32 pm

To highlight just how terrible the GFS is handling these cold airmasses, check out the low temp forecast tonight for DFW. Keep in mind the NWS is forecasting a low of 33 F, GFS Global "Gold Standard" model is forecasting a low of 43F :double:

Image

Even the Ensemble members are garbage with every single member at 40 F and above

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#1920 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:53 pm

FWIW ICON also showing similar setup as CMC and Euro with some rain mixed with snow over parts of West TX

Image
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