txtwister78 wrote:GFS may be an outlier in the long range, but it was definitely the first I do believe to see the potential for a cold outbreak next wk. That alone of course doesn't make it right, but in my opinion the Euro has never really been a model that can "see" colder air in the long term anyway. Just seems like we're back to the "is it wise to go beyond a 5 to 7-day window" for predicting what any given model will do when it's clear we are seeing what a few days can do to the pattern (next wk potential). So, on that front, I just think you take these one at a time rather than trying to decipher patterns/models more than 7 days out. My .02
Since the GFS is the only model that looks beyond 10 days, it's the only model that could see something beyond 10 days. Canadian and Euro are warmer for next week's cold, at least in SE TX. The Canadian doesn't even have a freeze for Houston next Friday (it has 29 Saturday, EC has 34 Saturday). Euro is at 32-33 degrees for Friday's low. GFS is upper 20s. Yes, it is best to wait until maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday to be more confident in Friday's temps. Believing the current coldest, snowiest model is not a good idea. However, I will believe any model that forecasts highs in the 80s.