Texas Winter 2021-2022

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3341 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:06 pm

txtwister78 wrote:GFS may be an outlier in the long range, but it was definitely the first I do believe to see the potential for a cold outbreak next wk. That alone of course doesn't make it right, but in my opinion the Euro has never really been a model that can "see" colder air in the long term anyway. Just seems like we're back to the "is it wise to go beyond a 5 to 7-day window" for predicting what any given model will do when it's clear we are seeing what a few days can do to the pattern (next wk potential). So, on that front, I just think you take these one at a time rather than trying to decipher patterns/models more than 7 days out. My .02


Since the GFS is the only model that looks beyond 10 days, it's the only model that could see something beyond 10 days. Canadian and Euro are warmer for next week's cold, at least in SE TX. The Canadian doesn't even have a freeze for Houston next Friday (it has 29 Saturday, EC has 34 Saturday). Euro is at 32-33 degrees for Friday's low. GFS is upper 20s. Yes, it is best to wait until maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday to be more confident in Friday's temps. Believing the current coldest, snowiest model is not a good idea. However, I will believe any model that forecasts highs in the 80s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3342 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:21 pm

I don't really care about anything past Thursday right now, as it's the current potential threat. And, it's unusual to get many reinforcing shots in TX, so I would expect our typical result to be a quick-hitting storm, then moderation before maybe a reload down the road. Last year was unusual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3343 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:GFS may be an outlier in the long range, but it was definitely the first I do believe to see the potential for a cold outbreak next wk. That alone of course doesn't make it right, but in my opinion the Euro has never really been a model that can "see" colder air in the long term anyway. Just seems like we're back to the "is it wise to go beyond a 5 to 7-day window" for predicting what any given model will do when it's clear we are seeing what a few days can do to the pattern (next wk potential). So, on that front, I just think you take these one at a time rather than trying to decipher patterns/models more than 7 days out. My .02


Since the GFS is the only model that looks beyond 10 days, it's the only model that could see something beyond 10 days. Canadian and Euro are warmer for next week's cold, at least in SE TX. The Canadian doesn't even have a freeze for Houston next Friday (it has 29 Saturday, EC has 34 Saturday). Euro is at 32-33 degrees for Friday's low. GFS is upper 20s. Yes, it is best to wait until maybe next Tuesday or Wednesday to be more confident in Friday's temps. Believing the current coldest, snowiest model is not a good idea. However, I will believe any model that forecasts highs in the 80s.


Yeah I get that on the GFS (it definitely goes beyond 240 no question), but my comment was geared more toward model shopping for any particular pattern discernment (cold or hot) beyond a 5–7-day period (definitely agree on tossing out the extremes), but in terms of you believing in any model that forecast those warm temps... hey that's your story and you're sticking to it. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3344 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:34 pm

Tulsa doesn't seem overly excited right now but it is 5 days out

While this isn`t a classic heavy snow/ice setup, there
should at least be a long enough duration of precip in the cold
air to result in some accumulating ice and snow. Data continues to
point toward an advisory level event, but as mentioned earlier, a
lot can change between now and Wednesday. So stay tuned.

Norman on the other hand seems more concerned

Confidence is starting to
increase a bit with regards to winter weather impacts, perhaps
along and north of I-44, but obviously still too early to
determine how significant. If trends continue with a digging and
deeper trough to our west by Tue, expect impacts to increase area
wide.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3345 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:36 pm

I’ve noticed many times that models go back to what they were originally showing in the medium/long range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Euro trend back to what it was showing a couple days ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3346 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:44 pm

I’d be very hesitant to believe the second cold blast the 12z GFS was showing past 10 days. It has no support.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3347 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I’d be very hesitant to believe the second cold blast the 12z GFS was showing past 10 days. It has no support.


Yup and that's what we said before last year happened
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3348 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:51 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I’d be very hesitant to believe the second cold blast the 12z GFS was showing past 10 days. It has no support.


Yup and that's what we said before last year happened


The Euro, the EPS, and it’s own ensemble (GEFS) show no such thing. Haven’t checked the CMC or its ensemble though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3349 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:52 pm

I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3350 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:53 pm

Portastorm wrote:I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:


There has been some insane model runs up there over 40 inches on the clown maps

It should be noted their record is only 27 inches :lol:

One of these days I want to experience one of those storms
Last edited by Brent on Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3351 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:53 pm

Portastorm wrote:I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:


I dream about scenarios like that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3352 Postby Haris » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:


I dream about scenarios like that.


Oh yeah
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3353 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:


I dream about scenarios like that.


I once had 2-3 feet of snow when I lived in CT, I was a baby back then.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3354 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:05 pm

I bet the 2nd and 3rd cold blasts the 12z GFS were showing will be gone to some extent on the 18z. If not gone completely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3355 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:13 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I realize this isn't Texas weather per se ... but imagine waking up and seeing this as your forecast for the day (this is for Boston, tomorrow):

Blizzard Warning
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

:eek:


I dream about scenarios like that.


I wonder with the gulf and Houston's geography maybe something like that could have happened during the last ice age. Big ULL swing through Mexico neg tilt and a surface low builds over Brownsville and rides up the coast lashing moisture behind a polar front in similar fashion with latent heat release something sub 980mb. Perhaps a mini-version back in 1895.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3356 Postby Haris » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:14 pm

Image :froze: :froze: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3357 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:16 pm

I know this is a Texas centric thread, but if anyone is interested in following some of the East Coast/NE Northeaster storm there is a link to see HurricaneTrack.com live coverage of the event in the Hurricanetrack.com forum on our site.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3358 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:16 pm

Oh Lordy the 18z gfs…
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3359 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:18 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Oh Lordy the 18z gfs…


There's room for more too. S/W crossing is very much like 2011, that even was further north and walloped Oklahoma. This looks like a little further south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3360 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:20 pm

Brent wrote:Tulsa doesn't seem overly excited right now but it is 5 days out

While this isn`t a classic heavy snow/ice setup, there
should at least be a long enough duration of precip in the cold
air to result in some accumulating ice and snow. Data continues to
point toward an advisory level event, but as mentioned earlier, a
lot can change between now and Wednesday. So stay tuned.

Norman on the other hand seems more concerned

Confidence is starting to
increase a bit with regards to winter weather impacts, perhaps
along and north of I-44, but obviously still too early to
determine how significant. If trends continue with a digging and
deeper trough to our west by Tue, expect impacts to increase area
wide.



FWD isn't as impressed with the current model trends as we are:

The next feature to watch will be a strong cold front and the low
chance for wintry precip arriving midweek. A longwave trough will
sweep through the CONUS, spilling much colder Arctic temperatures
into a large area of the U.S. behind it. The strong cold front is
progged to arrive to North & Central Texas on Wednesday, with
rain possible out ahead of the front. Along and behind the front,
there`s a low probability (20 to 30%) that precip in the form of a
rain/snow mix sets up, that will then completely transition to snow
in areas generally north of I-20 and west of I-35.

The key takeaways for next week`s systems are that precipitation
chances right now are low, and additionally, the overall synoptic
set-up isn`t very favorable for wintry precip with impactful
accumulations due to the progressiveness of the upper trough.
However, if ensembles trend towards an upper level trough that 1)
slows and digs or 2) is able to detach further south than what the
models are currently showing, concerns will begin to increase for
the potential for winter precipitation and resulting impacts
across the forecast area. There`s a low signal (less than 20%)
this will occur, but it bears watching as additional model runs
become available. As always with these systems, please be aware of
your forecast sources and use common sense before sharing
information.
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