Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Radar starting to fill in here. This first part of the storm is looking to hit us harder than we thought (were think best accumulations wouldn't be until after 9z). Unless precip ends earlier we may have a legit shot at double digits here, especially if the RAP and HRRR are handling things well in the near and now-term.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Woodward is already at 33°F, it's almost at freezing.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Looking at national radar and man there is already a ton of precip falling across the country. A combo of all weather currently. From California to Michigan.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
South Texas Storms wrote:The threat of freezing rain really looks to be increasing for San Antonio. 0z high-res models are in general agreement of the freezing line reaching into Bexar county before the precip ends there on Thursday.
Yup..not good. Noticeable trend in that direction with the 0z as you point out.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Portastorm wrote:bigddstranny wrote:Where are the Austin folks? Is Portastorm still around?
I'm thinking we end up with an ice storm. Thoughts?
I’ve been around … lol … been posting mostly earlier in the days. I’m concerned but still not convinced we see a significant amount of icing. I want to see the 0z suite which come out in a few hours. I’m thinking right now we see .10 to .15 which in itself can be bad enough. I’m just not buying into the heavier precip totals yet.
Ice storms suck. I’d prefer sleet or snow. But Mother Nature hasn’t asked me.
Temps seem to trending up some but overall still brutally cold here in CTX. Almost time for NOW casting looking at OBs to the North.
This will be my first winter event up here so not sure what to expect. I got a well water plumbing issue that needs to be resolved tomorrow before the 72hr deep freeze and I chopped tons of wood, About as prepared as I can be…will be getting a generator for next winter for sure.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
10 PM Freezing line according to Radar:
From Blackwell, to Medford, Cherokee, Waynoka, to Woodward, Vici & to Arnett. All in Oklahoma.
From Blackwell, to Medford, Cherokee, Waynoka, to Woodward, Vici & to Arnett. All in Oklahoma.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
cheezyWXguy wrote:0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.
GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

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- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
I am not going to make it up for the Euro. I figure I'll either be up late tomorrow or up early Thursday, probably both.
Here is the update to what I posted earlier for freeze arrival near me in far SW Collin county so you can see the trends. As Cheezy mentioned the NAM treatment of the heat Island looks to have slowed the 0Z on my tracker, but that is localized, not an overall trend for others. Otherwise a couple movements both ways. I also added a couple more Hi Res.
Edit, 0Z NBM is obviously midnight, not lunch Thursday.

Here is the update to what I posted earlier for freeze arrival near me in far SW Collin county so you can see the trends. As Cheezy mentioned the NAM treatment of the heat Island looks to have slowed the 0Z on my tracker, but that is localized, not an overall trend for others. Otherwise a couple movements both ways. I also added a couple more Hi Res.
Edit, 0Z NBM is obviously midnight, not lunch Thursday.

Last edited by Texas Snow on Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Well I managed to run over a fresh road kill skunk on the way home. Had to run off and wash the car at a car wash real quick. Having that smell in the garage the next few days would have been bad. Fun times.
UNT just made the call, closing at 6PM tomorrow and all day Thursday. Will comment on Friday later.
UNT just made the call, closing at 6PM tomorrow and all day Thursday. Will comment on Friday later.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.
GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png
That only keeps increasing for DFW, too with each run. Impressive.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
orangeblood wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.
GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png
Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.
GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png
Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.
If this scenario plays out, how much snow are we talkin?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
gpsnowman wrote:Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:
GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png
Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.
If this scenario plays out, how much snow are we talkin?
I wouldn't be surprised to see someone hit 5-6" pretty quick if that pans out. Between qpf+temps Parker and Tarrant counties, at the moment, would be in the sweet spot.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
GEFS Mean getting more aggressive with QPF amounts post frz
Total precip after 9pm, when DFW is forecast to hit frz mark

Total precip after 6am, when Austin is forecast to hit frz mark maybe earlier

Total precip after 9pm, when DFW is forecast to hit frz mark

Total precip after 6am, when Austin is forecast to hit frz mark maybe earlier

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
txtwister78 wrote:RAP putting a good chunk of the state in ice Thursday
https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022020203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png
That's odd in its handling of E TX. Ice in Houston but none in East Texas. Looks like it is overdoing the Ouachita blocking.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ralph's Weather wrote:txtwister78 wrote:RAP putting a good chunk of the state in ice Thursday
https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022020203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png
That's odd in its handling of E TX. Ice in Houston but none in East Texas. Looks like it is overdoing the Ouachita blocking.
Yeah i would bet you see some adjustment further east in time just like we've definitely seen that expand south today more into SA metro
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Small rain shower just blew up right on top of me. Hope we don't get too much or that will increase the freezing rain potential.
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Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Temps are running colder than the 21z SREF at both OKC and Amarillo. Upstream is cooling faster than modeled.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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