Texas Winter 2021-2022

[TheProfessor]

Radar starting to fill in here. This first part of the storm is looking to hit us harder than we thought (were think best accumulations wouldn't be until after 9z). Unless precip ends earlier we may have a legit shot at double digits here, especially if the RAP and HRRR are handling things well in the near and now-term.

[Iceresistance]

Woodward is already at 33°F, it's almost at freezing.

[gpsnowman]

Looking at national radar and man there is already a ton of precip falling across the country. A combo of all weather currently. From California to Michigan.

[txtwister78]

The threat of freezing rain really looks to be increasing for San Antonio. 0z high-res models are in general agreement of the freezing line reaching into Bexar county before the precip ends there on Thursday.

Yup..not good. Noticeable trend in that direction with the 0z as you point out.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.

[ROCK]

Where are the Austin folks? Is Portastorm still around?

I'm thinking we end up with an ice storm. Thoughts?

I’ve been around … lol … been posting mostly earlier in the days. I’m concerned but still not convinced we see a significant amount of icing. I want to see the 0z suite which come out in a few hours. I’m thinking right now we see .10 to .15 which in itself can be bad enough. I’m just not buying into the heavier precip totals yet.

Ice storms suck. I’d prefer sleet or snow. But Mother Nature hasn’t asked me.

Temps seem to trending up some but overall still brutally cold here in CTX. Almost time for NOW casting looking at OBs to the North.

This will be my first winter event up here so not sure what to expect. I got a well water plumbing issue that needs to be resolved tomorrow before the 72hr deep freeze and I chopped tons of wood, About as prepared as I can be…will be getting a generator for next winter for sure.

[Iceresistance]

10 PM Freezing line according to Radar:

From Blackwell, to Medford, Cherokee, Waynoka, to Woodward, Vici & to Arnett. All in Oklahoma.

[orangeblood]

0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.

GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

[Texas Snow]

I am not going to make it up for the Euro. I figure I'll either be up late tomorrow or up early Thursday, probably both.

Here is the update to what I posted earlier for freeze arrival near me in far SW Collin county so you can see the trends. As Cheezy mentioned the NAM treatment of the heat Island looks to have slowed the 0Z on my tracker, but that is localized, not an overall trend for others. Otherwise a couple movements both ways. I also added a couple more Hi Res.

Edit, 0Z NBM is obviously midnight, not lunch Thursday.

[HockeyTx82]

Well I managed to run over a fresh road kill skunk on the way home. Had to run off and wash the car at a car wash real quick. Having that smell in the garage the next few days would have been bad. Fun times.

UNT just made the call, closing at 6PM tomorrow and all day Thursday. Will comment on Friday later.

[rwfromkansas]

0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.

GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png

That only keeps increasing for DFW, too with each run. Impressive.

[Ntxw]

0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.

GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png

Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.

[gpsnowman]

0z HRRR, ICON. and GFS showing a major storm for north Texas, and have either maintained or moved up timing. NAM is comparatively lacking in the qpf department, but is still a pretty decent hit for the area, and has moved up its timing a bit despite still lagging the others. I think the reason the NAM sucks so much at handling the temps is because it exaggerates the heat island effect around dfw to an unreasonable degree. I might buy it if we were talking about radiational cooling under clear skies, but for cold air advection it just doesn’t make sense.

GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png

Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.

If this scenario plays out, how much snow are we talkin?

[Ntxw]

GFS now bringing in some pretty decent snow amounts into DFW, comp to HRRR

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1643760000/1643976000-kCfzCZ052hg.png

Maximum lift occurs 12z-18z. If the turnover happens closer to 12z before the heavier qpf, with the trend in the guidance we can have a last minute hail mary for a jackpot.

If this scenario plays out, how much snow are we talkin?

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone hit 5-6" pretty quick if that pans out. Between qpf+temps Parker and Tarrant counties, at the moment, would be in the sweet spot.

[txtwister78]

RAP putting a good chunk of the state in ice Thursday

[orangeblood]

GEFS Mean getting more aggressive with QPF amounts post frz

Total precip after 9pm, when DFW is forecast to hit frz mark


Total precip after 6am, when Austin is forecast to hit frz mark maybe earlier

[Ralph's Weather]

RAP putting a good chunk of the state in ice Thursday

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022020203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's odd in its handling of E TX. Ice in Houston but none in East Texas. Looks like it is overdoing the Ouachita blocking.

[txtwister78]

RAP putting a good chunk of the state in ice Thursday

https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2022020203/051/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's odd in its handling of E TX. Ice in Houston but none in East Texas. Looks like it is overdoing the Ouachita blocking.

Yeah i would bet you see some adjustment further east in time just like we've definitely seen that expand south today more into SA metro

[ElectricStorm]

Small rain shower just blew up right on top of me. Hope we don't get too much or that will increase the freezing rain potential.

[bubba hotep]

Temps are running colder than the 21z SREF at both OKC and Amarillo. Upstream is cooling faster than modeled.