Texas Winter 2021-2022

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wxman22
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5681 Postby wxman22 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:01 pm

Golf7270 wrote:I think we can just about write off any winter weather next week for most. Models are too consistent on keeping the real cold from advancing east, especially for no ice storm. Especially the op runs. I will say the ensembles are still cold in that timeframe so I guess we shall see

You're in far east Arkansas though...with such a strong southeast ridge there will be a tight gradient in temps from west to east.Not saying you're wrong just saying that based on the setup next week Texas/Oklahoma may end up decently colder than east Arkansas and points south and east of there.Of course things will change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5682 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:05 pm

Definitely starting to get my attention now. Coldest run of the GEFS so far.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5683 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:12 pm

I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5684 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:25 pm

Texas Snow wrote:I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting :lol:


When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5685 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:28 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Definitely starting to get my attention now. Coldest run of the GEFS so far.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1645034400/1645639200-fF52I8bjNkI.png



Carolinas absolutely torching
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5686 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:30 pm

Haris wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:Definitely starting to get my attention now. Coldest run of the GEFS so far.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom/1645034400/1645639200-fF52I8bjNkI.png



Carolinas absolutely torching


Yup...stout ridge.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5687 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:51 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting :lol:


When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.


Yeah the storm in Kansas tomorrow had almost disappeared a few days ago and look at it now... It's basically a blizzard

It seems the globals always lose stuff in the mid range only to reappear. I definitely wouldn't write off a winter storm next week given that. So much can change in 5 days heck the storm 2 weeks ago here didn't look that big til inside 5 days
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5688 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:01 pm

Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting :lol:


When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.


Yeah the storm in Kansas tomorrow had almost disappeared a few days ago and look at it now... It's basically a blizzard

It seems the globals always lose stuff in the mid range only to reappear. I definitely wouldn't write off a winter storm next week given that. So much can change in 5 days heck the storm 2 weeks ago here didn't look that big til inside 5 days


I’ve been noticing for what seems like years models lose stuff in the mid range. Happens dam near every time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5689 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:11 pm

Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting :lol:


When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.


Yeah the storm in Kansas tomorrow had almost disappeared a few days ago and look at it now... It's basically a blizzard

It seems the globals always lose stuff in the mid range only to reappear. I definitely wouldn't write off a winter storm next week given that. So much can change in 5 days heck the storm 2 weeks ago here didn't look that big til inside 5 days


Yup but to be fair I think the storm itself was on the table, but the low track definitely has adjusted the past day or two so that northern Oklahoma and Kansas are now in the bullseye but back to the larger point as you describe whenever you're talking about winter precip...hell that's an adventure two to three days out and sometimes even in a nowcast scenario.

I think in terms of looking at a pattern 7/8 days out, the signals can show us what "might" be in play, but the actual factors of timing and surface setup etc are always going to be short term challenges when attempting to forecast winter precip (particularly across the southern plains).
Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5690 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:14 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.


Yeah the storm in Kansas tomorrow had almost disappeared a few days ago and look at it now... It's basically a blizzard

It seems the globals always lose stuff in the mid range only to reappear. I definitely wouldn't write off a winter storm next week given that. So much can change in 5 days heck the storm 2 weeks ago here didn't look that big til inside 5 days


I’ve been noticing for what seems like years models lose stuff in the mid range. Happens almost every time.


Maybe something tries to pop up in Mid-Range, sometimes does stop that system, but most of the time, it eventually returns.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5691 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:19 pm

Beating a dead horse here but more and more flocks of geese are cruising south. Anyone else noticing this? A sign or not it is something I take notice of before major fronts in years past. Before the deep freeze last year I witnessed the most hurried bird evac ever. Not the same now and smaller in numbers. Maybe I am desperate!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5692 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:34 pm

gpsnowman wrote:Beating a dead horse here but more and more flocks of geese are cruising south. Anyone else noticing this? A sign or not it is something I take notice of before major fronts in years past. Before the deep freeze last year I witnessed the most hurried bird evac ever. Not the same now but smaller in numbers. Maybe I am desperate!!

Not lately, even though that I've noticed more Dark-Eyed Juncos lately, they come here when the really cold weather comes in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5693 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 16, 2022 7:40 pm

Pretty solid -EPO driven. CIPS analogs suggest cold down the plains.

Image

Alaskan Ridge is the bridge to bring the cold.

2 to 3 SD above normal ridge is pretty stout.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5694 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:Pretty solid -EPO driven. CIPS analogs suggest cold down the plains.

https://i.imgur.com/51YPAL3.png

Alaskan Ridge is the bridge to bring the cold.

2 to 3 SD above normal ridge is pretty stout.

https://i.imgur.com/VkAs9s6.gif



Thought maybe I'd escape prolonged cold this winter :lol: Better than the up and down temps imo though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5695 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:52 pm

I may never see an ensemble mean this high here again. Especially within 24 hours. :eek:

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5696 Postby Golf7270 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:58 pm

I think the Alaskan ridge is feeding off of the real east based niña that's very intense currently. It's a big factor globally imo
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5697 Postby Golf7270 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 9:00 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I may never see an ensemble mean this high here again. Especially within 24 hours. :eek:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/BgvYXbz/SREF.png [/url]

Congrats buddy. Alot of snow for sure. Most snow I've ever seen is 9 inches in the March 2015 event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5698 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 16, 2022 9:02 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I may never see an ensemble mean this high here again. Especially within 24 hours. :eek:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/BgvYXbz/SREF.png [/url]

The Image quality is poor to me, I can't tell how much from the 21z SREF.


However, College of DuPage has 10 inches over Wichita, & that's only the 10:1 Ratio.

EDIT: 75-80% chance for 12 inches of snow on the 10:1 ratio for the area as well, this is looking to be huge.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5699 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 16, 2022 9:31 pm

Golf7270 wrote:I think the Alaskan ridge is feeding off of the real east based niña that's very intense currently. It's a big factor globally imo


An east based Nina (real one) with its spatial SSTa and raw SSTs, it's basically just a pseudo modoki El Nino when looking at walker circulation. The best feature to hold it up as a background Nina state (dryness) is the -PDO. Both feature consistent tropical convection over the IDL and WPAC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#5700 Postby Haris » Wed Feb 16, 2022 11:26 pm

Holy GFS !!
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