Brent wrote:txtwister78 wrote:Texas Snow wrote:I love it when somebody posts no way such and such happens, then someone gives up, then immediately somebody posts the opposite happening. It's what keeps this forum interesting

When you're still 7/8 days away from any event, you're going to see some changes so not surprising, but yeah, no reason to ever "give up" on mother nature. Always a few surprises lurking. I agree it definitely makes things interesting.
Yeah the storm in Kansas tomorrow had almost disappeared a few days ago and look at it now... It's basically a blizzard
It seems the globals always lose stuff in the mid range only to reappear. I definitely wouldn't write off a winter storm next week given that. So much can change in 5 days heck the storm 2 weeks ago here didn't look that big til inside 5 days
Yup but to be fair I think the storm itself was on the table, but the low track definitely has adjusted the past day or two so that northern Oklahoma and Kansas are now in the bullseye but back to the larger point as you describe whenever you're talking about winter precip...hell that's an adventure two to three days out and sometimes even in a nowcast scenario.
I think in terms of looking at a pattern 7/8 days out, the signals can show us what "might" be in play, but the actual factors of timing and surface setup etc are always going to be short term challenges when attempting to forecast winter precip (particularly across the southern plains).