Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Quixotic]

Light returns starting to show up to the SW.

[Brent]

00z HRRR is a bad scenario unless a lot of that ends up falling as sleet.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022300/048/zr_acc.us_sc.png

The waves of precip and temps below 30 will accrete very well.

This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.

I was gonna say seems to be a lot less hype this time

Meanwhile power crews are stationed an hour south of me

[WacoWx]

Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?

[Quixotic]

CAA seems to have abated somewhat. Winds only at 10 mph generally.

[HockeyTx82]

This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.

Heck the activity on this board reflects that sentiment. I think a lot of folks are going to be caught way off guard Thursday morning especially.

Yeah nearly all of the qpf will fall during temps that stick it like glue. I think most of North Texas will struggle to get to 30 tomorrow. I still have a feeling tomorrow may be the worst day just due to the surprise factor.

Are we talking ealry morning surprise or mid-afternoon?

[Quixotic]

00z HRRR is a bad scenario unless a lot of that ends up falling as sleet.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022300/048/zr_acc.us_sc.png

The waves of precip and temps below 30 will accrete very well.

This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.

Quite possible. You know how it is with winter around here. Most people freak about the first one and then aren’t as amped up if there are second or third chances.

[bubba hotep]

Precip depiction from the various models is always iffy but the 00z 12k NAM is showing more sleet than freezing rain for N. Texas.

[Ntxw]

Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?

If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.

[Haris]

NAM 3k is a crush job

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line has resumed its southward march, after retreating some this afternoon.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.

That block looks very big, now what do we need to get blocking in Greenland? #Greedy

Nope. NAO is overrated for our part of the nation. Don't get me wrong as it would be a bonus and keep us colder longer, but the EPO is the big driver on this.

Blocking over the top, and the Greenland region included, forces ULL's to track southward. Best case scenario, you get the two pairing together. Everything has to step down and it brings very stormy, colder weather, south.

[Ntxw]

NAM 3k is a crush job

No one really talked about the 18z Euro. If temps stay lower than forecast we may ride this on and off icing through Saturday.

[bubba hotep]

NAM 3k is a crush job

No one really talked about the 18z Euro. If temps stay lower than forecast we may ride this on and off icing through Saturday.

Also, shows deeper cold in place, so some of that might be snow.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like Thursday afternoon will be a very tough forecast, where precip ends, temps warm up above freezing, but areas under precip stay below freezing.

[Brent]

Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?

If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.

The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before

Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated

[Ntxw]

Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?

If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.

The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before

Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated

Warm grounds can play a role if you're talking about marginal temps and air high above is cold. It can effect accumulations at the onset. But with driving CAA for +24 hours it's all history if it gets below 30. Reverse can happen too, you can be frigid for a week single digits but it rises to high 20s with ample sunshine and it melts..

[Brent]

If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.

The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before

Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated

Warm grounds can play a role if you're talking about marginal temps and air high above is cold. It can effect accumulations at the onset. But with driving CAA for +24 hours it's all history if it gets below 30. Reverse can happen too, you can be frigid for a week single digits but it rises to high 20s with ample sunshine and it melts..

Yeah that's another thing different here... We were still chasing the cold in the snowstorm a few weeks ago. Here it's already cold

[HockeyTx82]

Seems quiet around here. Waiting on model runs?

I'm at 32.9, been dropping steadily since sunset.

[cstrunk]

It's a balmy 46F in Longview.

[Ntxw]

Seems quiet around here. Waiting on model runs?

I'm at 32.9, been dropping steadily since sunset.

Freezing rain is a winter mode most of us don't like that much. Quite honestly it's the most boring to look at. Looks like rain but glazing. It's most dangerous though. Sleet is good but we've had that.