Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR is a bad scenario unless a lot of that ends up falling as sleet.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022300/048/zr_acc.us_sc.png
The waves of precip and temps below 30 will accrete very well.
This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.
I was gonna say seems to be a lot less hype this time
Meanwhile power crews are stationed an hour south of me

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
CAA seems to have abated somewhat. Winds only at 10 mph generally.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Texas Snow wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.
Heck the activity on this board reflects that sentiment. I think a lot of folks are going to be caught way off guard Thursday morning especially.
Yeah nearly all of the qpf will fall during temps that stick it like glue. I think most of North Texas will struggle to get to 30 tomorrow. I still have a feeling tomorrow may be the worst day just due to the surprise factor.
Are we talking ealry morning surprise or mid-afternoon?
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR is a bad scenario unless a lot of that ends up falling as sleet.
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022022300/048/zr_acc.us_sc.png
The waves of precip and temps below 30 will accrete very well.
This may end up being worse than the first Feb storm. The funny thing is that the general public seems less concerned.
Quite possible. You know how it is with winter around here. Most people freak about the first one and then aren’t as amped up if there are second or third chances.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Precip depiction from the various models is always iffy but the 00z 12k NAM is showing more sleet than freezing rain for N. Texas.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
WacoWx wrote:Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?
If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
NAM 3k is a crush job
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Freezing line has resumed its southward march, after retreating some this afternoon.


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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Quixotic wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:
This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.
That block looks very big, now what do we need to get blocking in Greenland? #Greedy
Nope. NAO is overrated for our part of the nation. Don't get me wrong as it would be a bonus and keep us colder longer, but the EPO is the big driver on this.
Blocking over the top, and the Greenland region included, forces ULL's to track southward. Best case scenario, you get the two pairing together. Everything has to step down and it brings very stormy, colder weather, south.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Haris wrote:NAM 3k is a crush job
No one really talked about the 18z Euro. If temps stay lower than forecast we may ride this on and off icing through Saturday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Haris wrote:NAM 3k is a crush job
No one really talked about the 18z Euro. If temps stay lower than forecast we may ride this on and off icing through Saturday.
Also, shows deeper cold in place, so some of that might be snow.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Looks like Thursday afternoon will be a very tough forecast, where precip ends, temps warm up above freezing, but areas under precip stay below freezing.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:WacoWx wrote:Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?
If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.
The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before
Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Brent wrote:Ntxw wrote:WacoWx wrote:Roads won’t be bad tomorrow until afternoon/evening since temps have been so warm, right?
If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.
The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before
Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated
Warm grounds can play a role if you're talking about marginal temps and air high above is cold. It can effect accumulations at the onset. But with driving CAA for +24 hours it's all history if it gets below 30. Reverse can happen too, you can be frigid for a week single digits but it rises to high 20s with ample sunshine and it melts..
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:Ntxw wrote:
If temps are in the 20s it doesn't matter how warm it was. NWS forecast high for DFW tomorrow is 28.
The snowstorm a few weeks ago here it was well into the 70s right before
Didn't make a difference roads were a snow covered mess almost immediately. Warm ground is really overrated
Warm grounds can play a role if you're talking about marginal temps and air high above is cold. It can effect accumulations at the onset. But with driving CAA for +24 hours it's all history if it gets below 30. Reverse can happen too, you can be frigid for a week single digits but it rises to high 20s with ample sunshine and it melts..
Yeah that's another thing different here... We were still chasing the cold in the snowstorm a few weeks ago. Here it's already cold
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Seems quiet around here. Waiting on model runs?
I'm at 32.9, been dropping steadily since sunset.
I'm at 32.9, been dropping steadily since sunset.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
HockeyTx82 wrote:Seems quiet around here. Waiting on model runs?
I'm at 32.9, been dropping steadily since sunset.
Freezing rain is a winter mode most of us don't like that much. Quite honestly it's the most boring to look at. Looks like rain but glazing. It's most dangerous though. Sleet is good but we've had that.
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