Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Also keep in mind these years were impacted some way or another by +ENSO/El Nino. That won't be the case this year.
2016 and 2021 were not affected by Nino.
ENSO is part ocean part atmosphere. 2016 had clear lingering atmospheric super El Nino effects even if the ocean didn't reflect it. The Atlantic was limited due to it, with El Nino-esque shear and sinking motion shutting down the season until Matthew and Nicole formed. Per some agencies (BOM), 2021 was affected by +ENSO during MJJ. Point is, ENSO will be far more conducive for the Atlantic hurricane season compared to 2016, 2019, and 2021, so it is something to factor regardless of the AMO similarities with those years.