2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515824427577057296

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515827750032097280

Also keep in mind these years were impacted some way or another by +ENSO/El Nino. That won't be the case this year.

2016 and 2021 were not affected by Nino.

ENSO is part ocean part atmosphere. 2016 had clear lingering atmospheric super El Nino effects even if the ocean didn't reflect it. The Atlantic was limited due to it, with El Nino-esque shear and sinking motion shutting down the season until Matthew and Nicole formed. Per some agencies (BOM), 2021 was affected by +ENSO during MJJ. Point is, ENSO will be far more conducive for the Atlantic hurricane season compared to 2016, 2019, and 2021, so it is something to factor regardless of the AMO similarities with those years.

[weeniepatrol]

2020 was impacted by +ENSO? Sure didn't feel like it.
By mid-April, the entire NATL was burning in 2020. 2022 doesn't even look close to it and while I am sure this will be another above-average or close to hyperactive season, there would need to be some insane warming of the NATL in the next months to beat 2020. 2020 had so much cyclogenesis that we constantly had tons of multiple systems and centers within monsoon troughs fighting each other.

Well the upcoming pattern features very weak trades in the MDR. Looks similar to 1995 around this time of date. Here's a very stupid and very-not-to-be-taken-seriously meme:



10 days is not a long time, so we'll have to see how long this pattern continues for. If May looks similar then I would expect a rapidly warming MDR by June...

[weeniepatrol]

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515824427577057296

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515827750032097280

That second one was just sarcastic lol - the MDR is cool yes but we are by no means in a -AMO. It's a pretty good reflection of that 2nd EOF +AMO

The MDR might warm up because of the weaker trade winds.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515824427577057296

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1515827750032097280

That second one was just sarcastic lol - the MDR is cool yes but we are by no means in a -AMO. It's a pretty good reflection of that 2nd EOF +AMO

The MDR might warm up because of the weaker trade winds.

Yes, it is still cool now but I'm interested in seeing what happens with this bout if weak trades. Could manage to reverse a good amount of that cooling

[Shell Mound]

That second one was just sarcastic lol - the MDR is cool yes but we are by no means in a -AMO. It's a pretty good reflection of that 2nd EOF +AMO

The MDR might warm up because of the weaker trade winds.

Yes, it is still cool now but I'm interested in seeing what happens with this bout if weak trades. Could manage to reverse a good amount of that cooling

Models have been trending toward a more persistent -NAO through at least early May, along with even lower MSLP and weaker trades over the MDR and eastern Caribbean vs. earlier runs. This pattern would also help to suppress the warm pool over the northwestern North Atlantic, at least to some degree. Already we are observing respectable warming over the eastern subtropical Atlantic and portions of the MDR, concomitantly with cooling over the Sargasso Sea and off the Eastern Seaboard. The equatorial warm pool off the northeastern tip of South America will therefore likely migrate northeastward over the MDR over the next several weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR might warm up because of the weaker trade winds.

Yes, it is still cool now but I'm interested in seeing what happens with this bout if weak trades. Could manage to reverse a good amount of that cooling

Models have been trending toward a more persistent -NAO through at least early May, along with even lower MSLP and weaker trades over the MDR and eastern Caribbean vs. earlier runs. This pattern would also help to suppress the warm pool over the northwestern North Atlantic, at least to some degree. Already we are observing respectable warming over the eastern subtropical Atlantic and portions of the MDR, concomitantly with cooling over the Sargasso Sea and off the Eastern Seaboard. The equatorial warm pool off the northeastern tip of South America will therefore likely migrate northeastward over the MDR over the next several weeks.

Oh yeah, no I agree with you on this Shell Mound. The NOAA sst anomaly map really shows that warming has begun, with the north part of South America especially turning orange. Also I will add that the Gulf is seeing some robust warming too. It's only a matter of time imho that the MDR flashes orange and has people in the 2022 season poll jacking up their prediction numbers for this season

[NotSparta]

The MDR might warm up because of the weaker trade winds.

Yes, it is still cool now but I'm interested in seeing what happens with this bout if weak trades. Could manage to reverse a good amount of that cooling

Models have been trending toward a more persistent -NAO through at least early May, along with even lower MSLP and weaker trades over the MDR and eastern Caribbean vs. earlier runs. This pattern would also help to suppress the warm pool over the northwestern North Atlantic, at least to some degree. Already we are observing respectable warming over the eastern subtropical Atlantic and portions of the MDR, concomitantly with cooling over the Sargasso Sea and off the Eastern Seaboard. The equatorial warm pool off the northeastern tip of South America will therefore likely migrate northeastward over the MDR over the next several weeks.

Yeah the -NAO is certainly an interesting development. We'll see where we are once it winds down I guess. Definitely can see a window where the pattern transforms into a more classical +AMO and the more high end predictions for the season look more likely. We'll just have to wait and watch

[zzh]

What trade?

[AlphaToOmega]

Interestingly, this pattern has been ongoing for over a week, but little has actually changed.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, this pattern has been ongoing for over a week, but little has actually changed.
https://i.postimg.cc/mrJq05Jz/ssta-graph-atlmdr.png

I am pretty sure that we were not in a -NAO until right around now, which is when we should be transitioning to +NAO and seeing much more noticeable warming

Edit: shoot, sorry, I think I meant the other way around. If I am not mistaken, +NAO favors trades while -NAO doesn't?

[skyline385]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

[zzh]

Interestingly, this pattern has been ongoing for over a week, but little has actually changed.
https://i.postimg.cc/mrJq05Jz/ssta-graph-atlmdr.png

Because weak trades were only in Eastern tropical Atlantic...

We can clearly see warming in Eastern tropical Atlantic, it correlates with 850U pretty well.
Strong trades were over the Caribbean, that's why the OVERALL MDR SSTA didn't change that much. This pattern is expected to change with weak trades in the entire MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

[skyline385]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

Well Andy and Alex seem to think that early season will see MDR stability and a lot of those seasons did have MDR runners.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 3398397954

[NotSparta]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

Well Andy and Alex seem to think that early season will see MDR stability and a lot of those seasons did have MDR runners.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 3398397954

Condition for that is the MDR remains cooler than the subtropics. If we see that reverse or the MDR being even on the subtropics (perhaps due to the -NAO) then I don't see stability being as much a problem

[skyline385]

Even then, 1988 had Gilbert and Joan while 1989 had Hugo. In other words, both of those years featured their fair share of very damaging and powerful storms despite being in a -AMO period!

Well Andy and Alex seem to think that early season will see MDR stability and a lot of those seasons did have MDR runners.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 3398397954

Condition for that is the MDR remains cooler than the subtropics. If we see that reverse or the MDR being even on the subtropics (perhaps due to the -NAO) then I don't see stability being as much a problem

Yea and that's a pretty big IF for now. There are some signs of the MDR starting to warm up but still got to wait and see. Also the average SST based on climo also goes up as we approach June so even if the MDR is warming a bit it could still be lower than historical average no?

[AlphaToOmega]

Well Andy and Alex seem to think that early season will see MDR stability and a lot of those seasons did have MDR runners.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 3398397954

Condition for that is the MDR remains cooler than the subtropics. If we see that reverse or the MDR being even on the subtropics (perhaps due to the -NAO) then I don't see stability being as much a problem

Yea and that's a pretty big IF for now. There are some signs of the MDR starting to warm up but still got to wait and see. Also the average SST based on climo also goes up as we approach June so even if the MDR is warming a bit it could still be lower than historical average no?

That is possible, but the -NAO is probably going increase MDR SSTAs, which means increasing MDR SSTs relative to average. While we know the MDR is definitely going to be above-average in terms of SSTAs by ASO, if the MDR is above-average by June, the WAM will make the MDR even more above-average by ASO.

[aspen]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Most of those years had at least one long-tracking major from the MDR (not all peaked in the MDR though), and three of them (1985, 1999, and 2011) had an “East Coast Sweeper” storm (Gloria, Floyd, and Irene). I wonder if these kinds of tracks are correlated with second or third year Ninas.

[skyline385]

Slightly different take from Philip

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 7107191811

Except 1988 and 1989, all others had a large number of majors.

Most of those years had at least one long-tracking major from the MDR (not all peaked in the MDR though), and three of them (1985, 1999, and 2011) had an “East Coast Sweeper” storm (Gloria, Floyd, and Irene). I wonder if these kinds of tracks are correlated with second or third year Ninas.

They does seem to be a theme, Andy was joking about Dorian 2.0 in a different tweet as well.