2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[JetFuel_SE]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

You know it's bad when 57 goes bullish.

[AlphaToOmega]

The data are certainly interesting; from 2017 to 2021, every year has had a noticeable increase of MDR SSTAs from May to September:

2017: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.651 C; in September, they were 0.796 C, an increase of 0.145 C
2018: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.335 C; in September, they were 0.057 C, an increase of 0.392 C
2019: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.070 C; in September, they were 0.700 C, an increase of 0.630 C
2020: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.407 C; in September, they were 0.823 C, an increase of 0.416 C
2021: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.170 C; in September, they were 0.607 C, an increase of 0.437 C

This pattern continues looking at the years from 2012 to 2016, with every year barring one (2016) from having major increases of MDR SSTAs from May to September:

2012: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.083 C; in September, they were 0.548 C, an increase of 0.465 C
2013: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.419 C; in September, they were 0.550 C, an increase of 0.131 C
2014: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.055 C; in September, they were 0.215 C, an increase of 0.270 C
2015: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.171 C; in September, they were 0.590 C, an increase of 0.761 C
2016: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.601 C; in September, they were 0.602 C, an increase of 0.001 C

The average increase in MDR SSTAs from May to September from 2012 to 2021 is 0.365 C, so MDR SSTAs in May should be a decent indicator of where they will be in September once adjusted for inevitable MDR warming.

[toad strangler]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first?

Don’t hold your breath.
Phil is not, under any circumstance, going to “officially declare” a hyperactive season. No matter how bullish he thinks indicators are or are not. That’s just not what he does.

He may comment on that in November sometime though!

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so where does 2022 stack up in terms of favorability/unfavorability compared to all of the other post-2015 active seasons? 2022 is clearly ahead of 2018, which was arguably the least favorable season overall particularly given the impending El Nino and very cool MDR sst anomalies at this time of the year. 2022 is also ahead of 2016 and 2019, mainly since 2016, while an impending first La Nina year, still had to suffer the lingering effects of the Super El Nino from the year before. 2019 was also influenced by 2018's El Nino's lingering effects, and it was a warm neutral year. That leaves us with 2017, 2020, and 2021. 2021 was an impending second La Nina year, but it did experience a temporary relapse to neutral conditions during the spring/early summer and had a sst anomaly profile that was relatively unfavorable, with the MDR cool and the subtropics and equatorial Atlantic extremely warm. 2017 and 2020, the two hyperactive years, had very warm MDRs, and with an active WAM and being a second and first La Nina year respectively, it is no surprise that they are the most overall favorable seasons of the 6 so far.

So the way I see things, 2022 may be behind 2017 and 2020 in terms of overall favorability (particularly if one were to simply look at MDR sst anomalies), but it is way ahead of 2016, 2018, and 2019, and compared to 2021, 2022 does not seem to have the potential for a strong Atlantic Nino that would rob instability from the MDR (imho, 2022's setup is slightly more favorable than 2021's overall). The only flaw I see in 2022 is the coolish MDR, but if that changes, we may very well be in for a robust season, especially considering how this very likely will be the first year in a while with an established La Nina state as the season begins.

As a summary: 2018 < 2019 < 2016 < 2021 < 2022? < 2017/2020

[AnnularCane]

Would a cool MDR possibly make for a more active season, landfall-wise, by delaying development until the waves are further west?

Assuming, of course, it even stays cool.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Would a cool MDR possibly make for a more active season, landfall-wise, by delaying development until the waves are further west?

Assuming, of course, it even stays cool.

Excluding steering, if everything else lines up favorability-wise yeah, since waves will generally take longer to develop as you said.

[SFLcane]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

You know it's bad when 57 goes bullish.

Certainly! I just would like a bit more detail on why such a bullish season with ace reaching hyper levels of 170-190.

[SFLcane]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

Let's wait for Phil to officially declare a hyperactive season first?

Don’t hold your breath.
Phil is not, under any circumstance, going to “officially declare” a hyperactive season. No matter how bullish he thinks indicators are or are not. That’s just not what he does.

He may comment on that in November sometime though!

Careful we are in uncertain waters this season in some points and as the cfs shows things could be very favorable come July, Aug. I for one think the Mdr will warm by mid August.

[AlphaToOmega]

This certainly goes with Phil’s and 57’s idea of a super season oh boy.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1517986875637698568?s=21&t=WZ9zMMofShUkIsf_Vszbuw

You know it's bad when 57 goes bullish.

Certainly! I just would like a bit more detail on why such a bullish season with ace reaching hyper levels of 170-190.

As for the 170-190 ACE, I can only speculate, but for the CSU June forecasts, four indices are used to predict the hurricane season: NAtl SSTs (analogous to AMO), subtropical NAtl pressures (analogous to NAO), trade winds over equatorial Pacific (analogous to ENSO), and SSTs east of Australia. Data have shown that May AMO and May SSTs east of Australia have positive correlations to ACE and that May NAO and May ENSO have negative correlations to ACE. Right now, it seems that the AMO is positive, that the SSTs east of Australia are positive, that the ENSO is negative, and that the NAO is negative. Plus, according to the April forecast, the models all showed a hyperactive season: the CSU's statistical model showed 168 ACE; the ECMWF showed 180 ACE; the UKMET showed 166 ACE; the JMA showed 231 ACE.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1518336077408477186

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1518336077408477186?s=21&t=g-IBLKf9geGROVyt9E-hvA

Ahh no, don't jinx it!

But no, seriously, that's quite impressive. I hope that luck holds up for this season and the future, but as always, Mother Nature does not care about feelings, and just because it has not happened anytime recently does not mean it cannot happen anytime soon. While I love tracking hurricanes, it'll make me sick to the stomach the day I find myself tracking a high end Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane barreling toward the populated regions of the east and west coasts of the state, especially knowing the damage and suffering that will likely ensue.

[aspen]

I’m expecting 2022 to have some unexpected limiting factor that becomes a major part of predictions for the following season. In 2020, it was an unusual typhoon-pumped TUTT during September (although that didn’t do anything to stop Oct-Nov). In 2021, it was a combo of unusual MJO-dependency and possibly the Atlantic Niño in Oct-Nov. Who knows what 2022 will bring. Triple-dip Ninas are already uncommon, and this will be the first season in the 2016-onwards active phase (which has behaved differently to 1995-2012) to take place during one.

By “limiting factor”, I mean hostile conditions that don’t stop the season from producing ridiculous NS numbers, but keeps down the quality of storms during certain parts of the year. If Maysak and Haishen never formed and recurved the way they did to enhance that TUTT, 2020 could’ve hit 200 ACE with Paulette and Rene becoming stronger, higher-ACE hurricanes. While the exact cause for 2021’s late-season slump is still kinda debated, whatever it was probably prevented an additional 10-20+ ACE from at least one Caribbean hurricane.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1518336077408477186?s=21&t=g-IBLKf9geGROVyt9E-hvA

Ahh no, don't jinx it!

But no, seriously, that's quite impressive. I hope that luck holds up for this season and the future, but as always, Mother Nature does not care about feelings, and just because it has not happened anytime recently does not mean it cannot happen anytime soon. While I love tracking hurricanes, it'll make me sick to the stomach the day I find myself tracking a high end Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane barreling toward the populated regions of the east and west coasts of the state, especially knowing the damage and suffering that will likely ensue.

Building codes are VASTLY better than they were back in the days of Andrew. As long as people leave mobile homes and flood zones almost all of us will be fine.

Also that map posted of recent strikes is old. Does not include Irma. I mean yeah the Keys aren’t part of the main peninsula but come on.

[Teban54]

I’m expecting 2022 to have some unexpected limiting factor that becomes a major part of predictions for the following season. In 2020, it was an unusual typhoon-pumped TUTT during September (although that didn’t do anything to stop Oct-Nov). In 2021, it was a combo of unusual MJO-dependency and possibly the Atlantic Niño in Oct-Nov. Who knows what 2022 will bring. Triple-dip Ninas are already uncommon, and this will be the first season in the 2016-onwards active phase (which has behaved differently to 1995-2012) to take place during one.

By “limiting factor”, I mean hostile conditions that don’t stop the season from producing ridiculous NS numbers, but keeps down the quality of storms during certain parts of the year. If Maysak and Haishen never formed and recurved the way they did to enhance that TUTT, 2020 could’ve hit 200 ACE with Paulette and Rene becoming stronger, higher-ACE hurricanes. While the exact cause for 2021’s late-season slump is still kinda debated, whatever it was probably prevented an additional 10-20+ ACE from at least one Caribbean hurricane.

I remember one of the very casual, unscientific but nevertheless interesting ideas I've read from this forum earlier regarding 2010-13: it felt like the Atlantic was gradually "running out of steam", with each year being less impressive quality-wise. Some claimed this was due to the lack of an El Nino, which they say "recharges" the basin for subsequent years.

Granted, 2010-13 were under a very different set of circumstances from 2020-22. 2012 was a failed El Nino, whereas 2022 started with a La Nina and will almost certainly be one during peak season. 2013 was an anomaly in itself. But I do wonder if there's some scientific reasoning behind this, and if it would throw us an oddball this year.

[Kingarabian]

I’m expecting 2022 to have some unexpected limiting factor that becomes a major part of predictions for the following season. In 2020, it was an unusual typhoon-pumped TUTT during September (although that didn’t do anything to stop Oct-Nov). In 2021, it was a combo of unusual MJO-dependency and possibly the Atlantic Niño in Oct-Nov. Who knows what 2022 will bring. Triple-dip Ninas are already uncommon, and this will be the first season in the 2016-onwards active phase (which has behaved differently to 1995-2012) to take place during one.

By “limiting factor”, I mean hostile conditions that don’t stop the season from producing ridiculous NS numbers, but keeps down the quality of storms during certain parts of the year. If Maysak and Haishen never formed and recurved the way they did to enhance that TUTT, 2020 could’ve hit 200 ACE with Paulette and Rene becoming stronger, higher-ACE hurricanes. While the exact cause for 2021’s late-season slump is still kinda debated, whatever it was probably prevented an additional 10-20+ ACE from at least one Caribbean hurricane.

I remember one of the very casual, unscientific but nevertheless interesting ideas I've read from this forum earlier regarding 2010-13: it felt like the Atlantic was gradually "running out of steam", with each year being less impressive quality-wise. Some claimed this was due to the lack of an El Nino, which they say "recharges" the basin for subsequent years.

Granted, 2010-13 were under a very different set of circumstances from 2020-22. 2012 was a failed El Nino, whereas 2022 started with a La Nina and will almost certainly be one during peak season. 2013 was an anomaly in itself. But I do wonder if there's some scientific reasoning behind this, and if it would throw us an oddball this year.

The big curve ball is that 3rd year Nina's although they do happen, they are not common. Historically year three of a three peat La Nina results in a slower Atlantic hurricane season compared to the previous two.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1518336077408477186?s=21&t=g-IBLKf9geGROVyt9E-hvA

Ahh no, don't jinx it!

But no, seriously, that's quite impressive. I hope that luck holds up for this season and the future, but as always, Mother Nature does not care about feelings, and just because it has not happened anytime recently does not mean it cannot happen anytime soon. While I love tracking hurricanes, it'll make me sick to the stomach the day I find myself tracking a high end Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane barreling toward the populated regions of the east and west coasts of the state, especially knowing the damage and suffering that will likely ensue.

Building codes are VASTLY better than they were back in the days of Andrew. As long as people leave mobile homes and flood zones almost all of us will be fine.

Also that map posted of recent strikes is old. Does not include Irma. I mean yeah the Keys aren’t part of the main peninsula but come on.

Ok, yes, you have a very good and valid point, and I am truly sorry if my comment may have come across as me ignoring the horrific impacts of Irma on the Keys or belittling the abilities of residents in the at-risk zones to fare well during a storm. That obviously was never my intention in the first place; in fact, I would like to update and clarify what I just said to focusing primarily on the impacts of Cat 4+ direct landfalling storms on the peninsular part of the state. Also, it is awesome to hear that the building codes have really gone long ways since Andrew, and I sincerely do hope that for those in the risk zones, that such building codes will show their effectiveness and power to keep people safe in the event of a Cat 4 or higher storm hits a more populated part of S. Florida.

[NotSparta]

I’m expecting 2022 to have some unexpected limiting factor that becomes a major part of predictions for the following season. In 2020, it was an unusual typhoon-pumped TUTT during September (although that didn’t do anything to stop Oct-Nov). In 2021, it was a combo of unusual MJO-dependency and possibly the Atlantic Niño in Oct-Nov. Who knows what 2022 will bring. Triple-dip Ninas are already uncommon, and this will be the first season in the 2016-onwards active phase (which has behaved differently to 1995-2012) to take place during one.

By “limiting factor”, I mean hostile conditions that don’t stop the season from producing ridiculous NS numbers, but keeps down the quality of storms during certain parts of the year. If Maysak and Haishen never formed and recurved the way they did to enhance that TUTT, 2020 could’ve hit 200 ACE with Paulette and Rene becoming stronger, higher-ACE hurricanes. While the exact cause for 2021’s late-season slump is still kinda debated, whatever it was probably prevented an additional 10-20+ ACE from at least one Caribbean hurricane.

I remember one of the very casual, unscientific but nevertheless interesting ideas I've read from this forum earlier regarding 2010-13: it felt like the Atlantic was gradually "running out of steam", with each year being less impressive quality-wise. Some claimed this was due to the lack of an El Nino, which they say "recharges" the basin for subsequent years.

Granted, 2010-13 were under a very different set of circumstances from 2020-22. 2012 was a failed El Nino, whereas 2022 started with a La Nina and will almost certainly be one during peak season. 2013 was an anomaly in itself. But I do wonder if there's some scientific reasoning behind this, and if it would throw us an oddball this year.

The big curve ball is that 3rd year Nina's although they do happen, they are not common. Historically year three of a three peat La Nina results in a slower Atlantic hurricane season compared to the previous two.

Those 3 years were all generally -AMO so it could just be the sample size messing with things. At the same time the long-lived nature of those -ENSO events could push things towards -AMO so it's probably a bit of a chicken and egg thing. Probably better to not look at 3rd year Niñas too closely given the lack of them and the possibility that this season does not resemble those as much aside from ENSO

[Kingarabian]

I remember one of the very casual, unscientific but nevertheless interesting ideas I've read from this forum earlier regarding 2010-13: it felt like the Atlantic was gradually "running out of steam", with each year being less impressive quality-wise. Some claimed this was due to the lack of an El Nino, which they say "recharges" the basin for subsequent years.

Granted, 2010-13 were under a very different set of circumstances from 2020-22. 2012 was a failed El Nino, whereas 2022 started with a La Nina and will almost certainly be one during peak season. 2013 was an anomaly in itself. But I do wonder if there's some scientific reasoning behind this, and if it would throw us an oddball this year.

The big curve ball is that 3rd year Nina's although they do happen, they are not common. Historically year three of a three peat La Nina results in a slower Atlantic hurricane season compared to the previous two.

Those 3 years were all generally -AMO so it could just be the sample size messing with things. At the same time the long-lived nature of those -ENSO events could push things towards -AMO so it's probably a bit of a chicken and egg thing. Probably better to not look at 3rd year Niñas too closely given the lack of them and the possibility that this season does not resemble those as much aside from ENSO

That's true. Just wanted to add to the casual observation of a basin "running out of steam" idea. That being said, ENSO is a big driver so the sample size of 3peat La Nina's although small, deserve some attention. 2022 has a chance to prove or disprove this take.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1518336077408477186?s=21&t=g-IBLKf9geGROVyt9E-hvA

Ahh no, don't jinx it!

But no, seriously, that's quite impressive. I hope that luck holds up for this season and the future, but as always, Mother Nature does not care about feelings, and just because it has not happened anytime recently does not mean it cannot happen anytime soon. While I love tracking hurricanes, it'll make me sick to the stomach the day I find myself tracking a high end Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane barreling toward the populated regions of the east and west coasts of the state, especially knowing the damage and suffering that will likely ensue.

Building codes are VASTLY better than they were back in the days of Andrew. As long as people leave mobile homes and flood zones almost all of us will be fine.

Also that map posted of recent strikes is old. Does not include Irma. I mean yeah the Keys aren’t part of the main peninsula but come on.

This is not the point. Regardless metropolitan Dade and Broward have and continue to be extremely lucky. Until one day which could be this season or 30 years from now.

[mixedDanilo.E]

I’m expecting 2022 to have some unexpected limiting factor that becomes a major part of predictions for the following season. In 2020, it was an unusual typhoon-pumped TUTT during September (although that didn’t do anything to stop Oct-Nov). In 2021, it was a combo of unusual MJO-dependency and possibly the Atlantic Niño in Oct-Nov. Who knows what 2022 will bring. Triple-dip Ninas are already uncommon, and this will be the first season in the 2016-onwards active phase (which has behaved differently to 1995-2012) to take place during one.

By “limiting factor”, I mean hostile conditions that don’t stop the season from producing ridiculous NS numbers, but keeps down the quality of storms during certain parts of the year. If Maysak and Haishen never formed and recurved the way they did to enhance that TUTT, 2020 could’ve hit 200 ACE with Paulette and Rene becoming stronger, higher-ACE hurricanes. While the exact cause for 2021’s late-season slump is still kinda debated, whatever it was probably prevented an additional 10-20+ ACE from at least one Caribbean hurricane.

I remember one of the very casual, unscientific but nevertheless interesting ideas I've read from this forum earlier regarding 2010-13: it felt like the Atlantic was gradually "running out of steam", with each year being less impressive quality-wise. Some claimed this was due to the lack of an El Nino, which they say "recharges" the basin for subsequent years.

Granted, 2010-13 were under a very different set of circumstances from 2020-22. 2012 was a failed El Nino, whereas 2022 started with a La Nina and will almost certainly be one during peak season. 2013 was an anomaly in itself. But I do wonder if there's some scientific reasoning behind this, and if it would throw us an oddball this year.

The thing with that is since 2018 we’ve been getting wonky quality in the Atlantic - 2021 was basically 2019 just with no C5s but still very powerful hurricanes OTS and ofc Ida. And since 2018 tho we got Michael, Florence, Dorian, Laura, Eta, Iota, Ida and Sam back to back. And 2021 tbh could’ve seen better if not for the late season issue despite the MDR not being warm early due to the Atlantic Nino. So I can see Merritt in the 2010-13 being loosing steam situation but the past 2 years taught me Atlantic doesn’t follow history sometimes and massively goes off track. We also are kinda in pretty different situations than 2010-13. So we’ll see.