2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AlphaToOmega]

Something is definitely fishy about the ECMWF. It shows a -AMM horseshoe during the peak season, yet it shows an ACE 130% the 1993-2016 average.

[SFLcane]

Something is definitely fishy about the ECMWF. It shows a -AMM horseshoe during the peak season, yet it shows an ACE 130% the 1993-2016 average.

it's going heavy on the Caribbean which Makes sense given the strong ridge over the entire CONUS.

[SFLcane]

I think it should cause those who have been predicting hyperactivity to slow down.

[cycloneye]

I think it should cause those who have been predicting hyperactivity to slow down.

Some private companys went very high on numbers and ACE. Waiting for NOAA in the next few days. See Expert forecasts thread

[AlphaToOmega]

We need to see what this does:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A little confused at the SEAS5's graphically bearish signal in tandem with an ACE prediction of 130% of average. Unless it's expecting a bunch of Caribbean Cruisers it doesn't make a lot of sense to me...
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971770953979813908/ps2png-worker-commands-7c47f6996d-7pm8d-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-LVjH_T.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971796572893487144/20220505_113232.jpg

Another oddity is that the WAM seems unusually weak, at least for this current era we're in.

[Category5Kaiju]

A little confused at the SEAS5's graphically bearish signal in tandem with an ACE prediction of 130% of average. Unless it's expecting a bunch of Caribbean Cruisers it doesn't make a lot of sense to me...
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971770953979813908/ps2png-worker-commands-7c47f6996d-7pm8d-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-LVjH_T.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971796572893487144/20220505_113232.jpg

Another oddity is that the WAM seems unusually weak, at least for this current era we're in.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/971827046533697566/seas5_qpfa_3mon_nafrica_ASO.png

Wait...what??

Yeah, I am not sure if that will pan out, unless something happens and the strong WAM we've been consistently seeing the past years suddenly falters.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

[AlphaToOmega]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

I wonder why the ECMWF outputs ACE at a percentage of a climatological mean instead of outputting a raw ACE value.

[aspen]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

So this month’s ECMWF run predicts a lack of a +AMO and a nearly dead ITCZ…and yet it still gets 165 ACE. Unless we’re missing something, this run doesn’t make a ton of sense.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

I wonder why the ECMWF outputs ACE at a percentage of a climatological mean instead of outputting a raw ACE value.

I think my biggest question is why they're using that climo in particular. 1993-2021 is overwhelmingly +AMO.

[Category5Kaiju]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

So this month’s ECMWF run predicts a lack of a +AMO and a nearly dead ITCZ…and yet it still gets 165 ACE. Unless we’re missing something, this run doesn’t make a ton of sense.

I guarantee you that if we get a hyperactive season despite a -AMO and a dead ITCZ, then this season will go down in history and be talked about as a reference season for many years to come . But yes, seriously I agree, imho there's something very wrong with what this run just generated.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

Something is off with that ace especially 165 considering everything else its predicting.

[NotSparta]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

So this month’s ECMWF run predicts a lack of a +AMO and a nearly dead ITCZ…and yet it still gets 165 ACE. Unless we’re missing something, this run doesn’t make a ton of sense.

2022 effect. No matter what, models will still print out a hyperactive (>= 160 ACE) season

[AlphaToOmega]

ECMWF=165 ACE. Those peeps worried dont panic.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1522271780542558211

So this month’s ECMWF run predicts a lack of a +AMO and a nearly dead ITCZ…and yet it still gets 165 ACE. Unless we’re missing something, this run doesn’t make a ton of sense.

2022 effect. No matter what, models will still print out a hyperactive (>= 160 ACE) season

Is the model trying to correct for something? 165 ACE seems reasonable for this season's projected base state for ASO (+AMO, -PDO, +AMM, -ENSO, and Atlantic Nina), but not for the ECMWF's projected base state. Maybe the ECMWF is trying to correct its warm ENSO bias, cool MDR bias, and dry West Africa bias for the hurricane totals but nothing else. If you want to know, ask the people who maintain the ECMWF, not me.

[toad strangler]

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

well, that wraps it up. It's over. See you next May!

So I'm kinda old school and lean heavily on CSU and NOAA forecasts as the biggest indicators in my thought process over any modeling. Bullish or Bearish don't matter. So I wait patiently for NOAA to help guide my initial thoughts on the season.

Ironically, part of the reason CSU went so high is because of their modeling

Ya, part. But they aren't cliff jumping weenies like many of us from model to model And thus, WHY waiting for NOAA to chime in as well is the most prudent thing to do IMO.

[aspen]

If the ECMWF is right about a very weak WAM and ITCZ, then there must be something we’re missing right now. Maybe we’ve missed some indicators, or what happened in ON 2021 has led to suppressive impacts for 2022. How has precipitation in Africa this year compare to 2020 and 2021 by this point?

[Iceresistance]

I'm surprised that no one has noticed how fast the Atlantic MDR warmed, it's +0.5°C warmer compared to Mid-April!

[NotSparta]

If the ECMWF is right about a very weak WAM and ITCZ, then there must be something we’re missing right now. Maybe we’ve missed some indicators, or what happened in ON 2021 has led to suppressive impacts for 2022. How has precipitation in Africa this year compare to 2020 and 2021 by this point?

Probably won't be right. The weak WAM is a very well-known ECMWF bias

[NotSparta]

I'm surprised that no one has noticed how fast the Atlantic MDR warmed, it's +0.5°C warmer compared to Mid-April!

What do you mean? When it was still warming that's all everyone was talking about lol