2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#701 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 07, 2022 7:43 pm

Last edited by skyline385 on Sat May 07, 2022 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#702 Postby aspen » Sat May 07, 2022 7:59 pm


Seems like 1999 is one of the better possible analog seasons, since it started off with pretty meh MDR temperatures and was part of a multi-year Nina event. We’re clearly not at 2020/17/10/05 levels, but are ahead of 2018/19/21, so 2022 could end up in between the ACE of 2020 (lowest of the hyperactive years) and 2021 (highest of the recent NWAtl warm pool years). 1999 fell between that range (140-180 ACE) as well. However, I’m not sure we can really make confident analog comparisons given that this is a rare third year Nina, and I’m also doubtful 2022 would suddenly become a super prolific MDR year like how 1999 flipped.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#703 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat May 07, 2022 8:16 pm

aspen wrote:

Seems like 1999 is one of the better possible analog seasons, since it started off with pretty meh MDR temperatures and was part of a multi-year Nina event. We’re clearly not at 2020/17/10/05 levels, but are ahead of 2018/19/21, so 2022 could end up in between the ACE of 2020 (lowest of the hyperactive years) and 2021 (highest of the recent NWAtl warm pool years). 1999 fell between that range (140-180 ACE) as well. However, I’m not sure we can really make confident analog comparisons given that this is a rare third year Nina, and I’m also doubtful 2022 would suddenly become a super prolific MDR year like how 1999 flipped.


1999 does not seem to be one of the "better" analog seasons for 2022 simply due to its ASO pattern, which is what matters most for hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. The MDR was only 0.176 C above-average during ASO 1999, but the Atlantic Nino 3 region was 0.213 C above-average during ASO 1999. Currently, 2022 is expected to have an Atlantic Niña for ASO. In terms of overall ASO pattern, 1999 was closer to 2008 than it is expected to be to 2022.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#704 Postby Teban54 » Sat May 07, 2022 9:39 pm


As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.

Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#705 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat May 07, 2022 10:28 pm

Teban54 wrote:

As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.

Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.


Additionally, for those who argue that warmer than average sst anomalies in the MDR are necessary for a hyperactive season (especially in May or June or any time period near such), I do have a question to pose: is there a threshold MDR sst anomaly magnitude that draws the line between above average and hyperactive? Is the cutoff value +1 C? Or is it +0.5 C? Or is there even a line that can be reasonably drawn here?
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#706 Postby skyline385 » Sat May 07, 2022 10:36 pm

Teban54 wrote:

As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.

Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.


When you say other people you probably mean me because that's literally what I posted a few pages back. Regardless, Andy's tweet was more about how the SST's are currently trailing behind some of the more hyperactive seasons and obviously there are tons of other important factors at play here but If he as a scientist at NOAA feels that the MDR SSTs lagging behind this season is an important factor determining the activity of this season, then I am more inclined to believe him compared to random people on the internet.

Remember, no one here is saying that this season is going to be a bust but only that it might not be as hyperactive as some of the people here are hyping it up to be. We dont have a single forecast so far predicting a Hyperactive season and the Atlantic SSTs so far are nowhere close to what we have seen in the crazy seasons.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#707 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun May 08, 2022 5:15 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:

As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.

Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.


Additionally, for those who argue that warmer than average sst anomalies in the MDR are necessary for a hyperactive season (especially in May or June or any time period near such), I do have a question to pose: is there a threshold MDR sst anomaly magnitude that draws the line between above average and hyperactive? Is the cutoff value +1 C? Or is it +0.5 C? Or is there even a line that can be reasonably drawn here?


I cannot say ACE-wise what the threshold is, but there comes a point where the MDR is so below-average that a well-above-average MDR is virtually impossible. The WAM will warm the MDR from now to September, but it can only do so much. Here is a post I made analyzing the impacts of the WAM on MDR SSTAs. Obviously, ASO pattern matters more than May pattern, but should the MDR go significantly below-average this month, we can reasonably rule out a hyperactive season on the basis that the MDR will not be able to warm up by enough to reach SSTAs greater than 0.5 C.

AlphaToOmega wrote:The data are certainly interesting; from 2017 to 2021, every year has had a noticeable increase of MDR SSTAs from May to September:

2017: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.651 C; in September, they were 0.796 C, an increase of 0.145 C
2018: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.335 C; in September, they were 0.057 C, an increase of 0.392 C
2019: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.070 C; in September, they were 0.700 C, an increase of 0.630 C
2020: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.407 C; in September, they were 0.823 C, an increase of 0.416 C
2021: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.170 C; in September, they were 0.607 C, an increase of 0.437 C

This pattern continues looking at the years from 2012 to 2016, with every year barring one (2016) from having major increases of MDR SSTAs from May to September:

2012: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.083 C; in September, they were 0.548 C, an increase of 0.465 C
2013: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.419 C; in September, they were 0.550 C, an increase of 0.131 C
2014: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.055 C; in September, they were 0.215 C, an increase of 0.270 C
2015: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.171 C; in September, they were 0.590 C, an increase of 0.761 C
2016: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.601 C; in September, they were 0.602 C, an increase of 0.001 C

The average increase in MDR SSTAs from May to September from 2012 to 2021 is 0.365 C, so MDR SSTAs in May should be a decent indicator of where they will be in September once adjusted for inevitable MDR warming.


Edit: I concluded that if the MDR is greater than 0.4 C throughout May, it will definitely by greater than 0.5 C throughout September. If it is less than -0.2 C throughout May, it will definitely be less than 0.5 throughout September. If it is in between, it could be either.
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Sun May 08, 2022 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#708 Postby tolakram » Sun May 08, 2022 6:55 am



It's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure how much meaning we can get out of it. I'm also not sure what he means by post warming. Post this years warming, so May 5th is just a convenient date? What did May 30th look like, generally the same for all those years? I'm not convinced this year will be hyperactive either, but I do think most signs at the moment are more fun rather than instructive, even from a scientist. :)
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#709 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun May 08, 2022 8:25 am

tolakram wrote:


It's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure how much meaning we can get out of it. I'm also not sure what he means by post warming. Post this years warming, so May 5th is just a convenient date? What did May 30th look like, generally the same for all those years? I'm not convinced this year will be hyperactive either, but I do think most signs at the moment are more fun rather than instructive, even from a scientist. :)


SST patterns for May hold very little weight for the hurricane season (because what matters most is the pattern for ASO), but if you want to compare SST patterns for May, it is best to look at the entire month.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#710 Postby zzh » Sun May 08, 2022 11:12 am

Image
Very strong trades incoming.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#711 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 08, 2022 11:20 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
tolakram wrote:


It's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure how much meaning we can get out of it. I'm also not sure what he means by post warming. Post this years warming, so May 5th is just a convenient date? What did May 30th look like, generally the same for all those years? I'm not convinced this year will be hyperactive either, but I do think most signs at the moment are more fun rather than instructive, even from a scientist. :)


SST patterns for May hold very little weight for the hurricane season (because what matters most is the pattern for ASO), but if you want to compare SST patterns for May, it is best to look at the entire month.


They're not everything but there's predictive value.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#712 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 08, 2022 2:20 pm

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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#713 Postby Zonacane » Sun May 08, 2022 2:51 pm

Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#714 Postby Cat5James » Sun May 08, 2022 3:42 pm

Zonacane wrote:Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes

Yep... and a coolish Eastern MDR would only delay consolidation and strengthening until the waves are further West= higher chances of land impacts
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#715 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun May 08, 2022 5:11 pm

Zonacane wrote:Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes


If Florence could do it, then why can't other storms, ya know :wink: ?

(the point here is, Florence was able to be a long-lived, powerful Cape Verde system over marginal ssts, which still exceeded 26 C but not overwhlemingly so).

I could point to examples such as Michael and Lorenzo too; both traversed 82-83 F waters at their peak; the upper level wind patterns though were the real factors that allowed for their intensification and strength.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#716 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 08, 2022 5:17 pm

NMME for May has this, BenNollWeather has taken note of above average rainfall for a good part of the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1523424253671919616


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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#717 Postby SFLcane » Sun May 08, 2022 5:50 pm

Bahamas near SFL could be busy this season based on map above.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#718 Postby aspen » Sun May 08, 2022 5:55 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#719 Postby NotSparta » Sun May 08, 2022 6:01 pm

aspen wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.


Stronger trades mean stronger wind and cooling for the most part. Trades are weak for now which has allowed for some warming recently
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Re: 2022 indicators: SSTs / SAL / MSLP / shear / steering / instability / images

#720 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun May 08, 2022 6:10 pm

aspen wrote:
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.

Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.

All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.


On cyclonicwx the SST maps still have not updated from May 6 (at least for OISSTv2, which I use). :D

The OISSTv2 does say that MDR SSTAs were 0.3 C above-average on May 6, though.
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