
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
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skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
Seems like 1999 is one of the better possible analog seasons, since it started off with pretty meh MDR temperatures and was part of a multi-year Nina event. We’re clearly not at 2020/17/10/05 levels, but are ahead of 2018/19/21, so 2022 could end up in between the ACE of 2020 (lowest of the hyperactive years) and 2021 (highest of the recent NWAtl warm pool years). 1999 fell between that range (140-180 ACE) as well. However, I’m not sure we can really make confident analog comparisons given that this is a rare third year Nina, and I’m also doubtful 2022 would suddenly become a super prolific MDR year like how 1999 flipped.
skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
Teban54 wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.
Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.
Teban54 wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.
Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Teban54 wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
As people have noted a lot of times, 2005 and 2020's warm SSTs in the MDR did not translate to a hyperactive MDR season that many expected. While 2010 was definitely MDR-heavy, some have also argued its potential could have been higher given the record-breaking MDR SSTs.
Obviously there's still a correlation between MDR SSTs and seasonal activity, but it's far from the only factor.
Additionally, for those who argue that warmer than average sst anomalies in the MDR are necessary for a hyperactive season (especially in May or June or any time period near such), I do have a question to pose: is there a threshold MDR sst anomaly magnitude that draws the line between above average and hyperactive? Is the cutoff value +1 C? Or is it +0.5 C? Or is there even a line that can be reasonably drawn here?
AlphaToOmega wrote:The data are certainly interesting; from 2017 to 2021, every year has had a noticeable increase of MDR SSTAs from May to September:
2017: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.651 C; in September, they were 0.796 C, an increase of 0.145 C
2018: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.335 C; in September, they were 0.057 C, an increase of 0.392 C
2019: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.070 C; in September, they were 0.700 C, an increase of 0.630 C
2020: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.407 C; in September, they were 0.823 C, an increase of 0.416 C
2021: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.170 C; in September, they were 0.607 C, an increase of 0.437 C
This pattern continues looking at the years from 2012 to 2016, with every year barring one (2016) from having major increases of MDR SSTAs from May to September:
2012: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.083 C; in September, they were 0.548 C, an increase of 0.465 C
2013: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.419 C; in September, they were 0.550 C, an increase of 0.131 C
2014: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.055 C; in September, they were 0.215 C, an increase of 0.270 C
2015: MDR SSTAs in May were -0.171 C; in September, they were 0.590 C, an increase of 0.761 C
2016: MDR SSTAs in May were 0.601 C; in September, they were 0.602 C, an increase of 0.001 C
The average increase in MDR SSTAs from May to September from 2012 to 2021 is 0.365 C, so MDR SSTAs in May should be a decent indicator of where they will be in September once adjusted for inevitable MDR warming.
skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
It's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure how much meaning we can get out of it. I'm also not sure what he means by post warming. Post this years warming, so May 5th is just a convenient date? What did May 30th look like, generally the same for all those years? I'm not convinced this year will be hyperactive either, but I do think most signs at the moment are more fun rather than instructive, even from a scientist.
AlphaToOmega wrote:tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:Andy calling out hyperactive people I disagree with![]()
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083116977725441
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1523083335232528384
It's an interesting analysis but I'm not sure how much meaning we can get out of it. I'm also not sure what he means by post warming. Post this years warming, so May 5th is just a convenient date? What did May 30th look like, generally the same for all those years? I'm not convinced this year will be hyperactive either, but I do think most signs at the moment are more fun rather than instructive, even from a scientist.
SST patterns for May hold very little weight for the hurricane season (because what matters most is the pattern for ASO), but if you want to compare SST patterns for May, it is best to look at the entire month.
Zonacane wrote:Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes
Zonacane wrote:Hand wringing over MDR SST anomalies in May again. As if the MDR will be too cold for hurricanes
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.
aspen wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.
Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.
All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.
aspen wrote:zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/qVyeni3.png
Very strong trades incoming.
Does that mean a period of MDR cooling or warming would commence? Somehow I haven’t memorized this yet.
All of the maps on cyclonicwx have updated and show that the MDR has warmed up again by another 0.1-0.2C, with a warm tongue evident on the CRW map.
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