2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Nimbus]

00z GFS continues to model development in the western Caribbean at around +180, but it's an outlier; only one other model from this morning's runs and the 12z runs yesterday show this solution. Other models have the precursor disturbance moving into the Pacific before developing.

I'm not sure why they run these models more than 10 days out, unless there is an African wave train with very stable upper air pattern locked in place they aren't worth much.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS

[skyline385]

06Z GFS sure loves Florida

[InfernoFlameCat]

06Z GFS sure loves Florida

It’s like it wants to make up for all those years without a landfall on Tampa.

[hurricane2025]

If I was a betting man pacific storm or Mexico to south texas

[Cpv17]

If I was a betting man pacific storm or Mexico to south texas

As of right now I would agree with that.

[Fancy1001]

[imgur][/imgur]

06Z GFS sure loves Florida

It’s like it wants to make up for all those years without a landfall on Tampa.

What do you mean, it looks like it’s intentionally avoiding landfall in Tampa

You have to really zoom in to see what I mean

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60906&fh=6

[BobHarlem]

[url][/url]

06Z GFS sure loves Florida

It’s like it wants to make up for all those years without a landfall on Tampa.

What do you mean, it looks like it’s intentionally avoiding landfall in Tampa

You have to really zoom in to see what I mean

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60906&fh=6

Maybe, but that setup drives surge up the bay for nearly 24 hours.

[SFLcane]

[Category5Kaiju]

How much you want to bet that at some point in this season, the GFS will continuously spit out a strong GoM or WCAR "boguscane" as the other models disagree, and then that powerful boguscane actually ends up happening?

[Cpv17]

How much you want to bet that at some point in this season, the GFS will continuously spit out a strong GoM or WCAR "boguscane" as the other models disagree, and then that powerful boguscane actually ends up happening?

It probably will at some point but it’s typically hard to get a vertically stacked system in June in the GOM. How’s shear looking anyway? What’s it forecasted to do over the next week or two?

[jfk08c]

How much you want to bet that at some point in this season, the GFS will continuously spit out a strong GoM or WCAR "boguscane" as the other models disagree, and then that powerful boguscane actually ends up happening?

It probably will at some point but it’s typically hard to get a vertically stacked system in June in the GOM. How’s shear looking anyway? What’s it forecasted to do over the next week or two?

Low shear environment over Florida and Western Cuba as of right now. Pretty high shear over the area the GFS initializes it's next wildcard hurricane. Who knows what might happen in the next week. Pretty sure I recall the GFS predicting that tropical system that hit Florida the other week quite a ways out. Have to see the next few runs to see if it's just a one off or trying to sniff something out

[skyline385]

How much you want to bet that at some point in this season, the GFS will continuously spit out a strong GoM or WCAR "boguscane" as the other models disagree, and then that powerful boguscane actually ends up happening?

Seeing how bad the Euro has been at TCG lately, the GFS is eventually going to turn out right. I can't remember a single case in recent years where the Euro was the first model to pick up on the genesis of a new system, it's mostly the GFS who picks it up first because of its long range and it's high rate of TCG.

[skyline385]

GFS 12Z heading for Florida again

EDIT: scratch that, turning left now lol

[skyline385]

Does this count as the NOLA run?

[captainbarbossa19]

Does this count as the NOLA run?

Close enough, but man Louisiana has had enough the past several years.

[PTrackerLA]

Does this count as the NOLA run?

Close enough, but man Louisiana has had enough the past several years.

Can we have a tropical storm version of this? Many areas around here running 12" deficits for the year on top of a very dry October-December. Now it's heat wave time.

[captainbarbossa19]

Does this count as the NOLA run?

Close enough, but man Louisiana has had enough the past several years.

Can we have a tropical storm version of this? Many areas around here running 12" deficits for the year on top of a very dry October-December. Now it's heat wave time.

This would be nice. In fact, it should ride along the coastline moving WNW from New Orleans and move in around High Island, Texas. It can keep moving WNW after landfall and soak Louisiana and Texas.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1534932606243971072




 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1534941763697360897

[skyline385]

Some activity on 12Z EPS