2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1201 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:34 am

tolakram wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
tolakram wrote:How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

By how thick and widespread it is on observations and satellite, they also compare to previous ones as well.


Yea, that's the problem. It's eyeballing it unless there's some objective number or metric to rate these. I'm asking if there is such an objective measure. :)


The Aerosol Optical Depth is the objective measure though, measured by NASA's Terra satellite using the MODIS spectroradiometer. Check out the NASA link i posted above. The NASA-DUST Global model also runs on the AOD parameter.

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Last edited by skyline385 on Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1202 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:17 pm

The upward shift in gusts is certainly an eye opener for the Florida peninsula.

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1536829102774272000


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1203 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:22 pm

Just a few weeks to go before it all breaks loose! :crazyeyes:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536849958908768256


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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1204 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:42 pm

:uarrow: No sign of that strong Tutt feature that has seemed to find its way off the CONUS East Coast during Aug/Sept.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1205 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:03 pm

Recurves would make sense with the C3S precipitation plot

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840




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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1206 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:39 pm

Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge. :fishing:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1207 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:54 pm

From what I can tell, that still shows an anomalously wet Caribbean, so while there may be fish storms, that pattern seems to still suggest that Caribbean-tracking systems can occur, meaning a greater land threat and (possibly) CONUS issue if those systems track northward after passing through the Caribbean Sea
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1208 Postby Hammy » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:26 am

SFLcane wrote:Things could get cranking early as soon as July this season though i remain a bit skeptical as there has not been a strong hurricane in July since 2008 if i am not mistaken. We shall see


Depends on what you define as strong, and where specifically you're counting. Arthur in 2014 and Chris in 2018 both reached mid-Cat 2 in July off the Southeast.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1209 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:14 am

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1210 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:31 am

SFLcane wrote:Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge. :fishing:


Well, we all know that post Antilles re-curves off the SE US coast is the Atlantic I-95. So that is my expectation until an anomalous 500mb setup tells me otherwise.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1211 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:48 am

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge. :fishing:


Well, we all know that post Antilles re-curves off the SE US coast is the Atlantic I-95. So that is my expectation until an anomalous 500mb setup tells me otherwise.


Forecast could be wrong just saying most members of C3S are not showing a pattern conducive for Florida landfalls. EC being the notable exception.

If + nao verifies storms could get further west surely and as you know it all comes down to timing yet again. ridge/trough placement. Personally i am watching if we get a ridge over Canada and a Rockies trough or not. Certainly wouldn't write off any possibility!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1212 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:13 am

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1213 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:13 am

SFLcane wrote:Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png


It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1214 Postby skyline385 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:27 am

Iceresistance wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png


It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1215 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:52 am

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png


It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/24c1976d662f26fe38d2b91897cc6574.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/bce338fa21cf1c8edea9abab1abcc056.jpg


While not quite at 2017/2020 levels currently, I think it is safe to say that especially if the predicted trend plays out, this year will very likely surpass the 2016/2018/2019/2021 bunch in terms of MDR warmth
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1216 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:47 pm

UKMET, ECMWF, JMA precip are all into the caribbean. :double:

Image

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1217 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:02 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png


It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/24c1976d662f26fe38d2b91897cc6574.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/bce338fa21cf1c8edea9abab1abcc056.jpg


It’s possible we even pass 2017 / 2020 if the upcoming pattern verifies . I’m really curious to see how this map looks month end. I thought the last 2 weeks would have really reversed the anomalies but it’s still warmer than normal. Imagine when the westerlies kick in soon
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1218 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:07 pm

ECMWF CS3 ASO close-up

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1219 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:31 pm

From what I am seeing, I genuinely think that this season is bound to feature at least several major land impacts unfortunately. With so many models insistent on a wetter Caribbean (and where storms that trek through that region of the Atlantic typically end up hitting land inevitably at some point thanks to the geography), it would be a rather major miracle if by the end of this season the Caribbean-bordering islands and regions are spared. As for the CONUS, I'm still a bit uncertain as to how bad this season will be in the end, but given the La Nina and higher chance of seeing Caribbean tracking storms, I feel that the Gulf may be a place to watch, especially if these storms curve northward due to troughing in that region. A 2010 redux at this point imho is rather unlikely to happen, although that of course would be much welcomed considering the blitzkrieg of devastating storms from the past 6 consecutive years.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1220 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:51 am

One of them take Frances/Irma type track towards South Florida. Long range CFS so use with extreme caution but the fact its showing wave after wave trying to develop is a good sign a few make could surely make it west.

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