2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

By how thick and widespread it is on observations and satellite, they also compare to previous ones as well.

Yea, that's the problem. It's eyeballing it unless there's some objective number or metric to rate these. I'm asking if there is such an objective measure.

The Aerosol Optical Depth is the objective measure though, measured by NASA's Terra satellite using the MODIS spectroradiometer. Check out the NASA link i posted above. The NASA-DUST Global model also runs on the AOD parameter.

[SFLcane]

The upward shift in gusts is certainly an eye opener for the Florida peninsula.

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1536829102774272000

[SFLcane]

Just a few weeks to go before it all breaks loose!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536849958908768256

[Blown Away]

No sign of that strong Tutt feature that has seemed to find its way off the CONUS East Coast during Aug/Sept.

[skyline385]

Recurves would make sense with the C3S precipitation plot

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536875899118755840

[SFLcane]

Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge.

[Category5Kaiju]

From what I can tell, that still shows an anomalously wet Caribbean, so while there may be fish storms, that pattern seems to still suggest that Caribbean-tracking systems can occur, meaning a greater land threat and (possibly) CONUS issue if those systems track northward after passing through the Caribbean Sea

[Hammy]

Things could get cranking early as soon as July this season though i remain a bit skeptical as there has not been a strong hurricane in July since 2008 if i am not mistaken. We shall see

Depends on what you define as strong, and where specifically you're counting. Arthur in 2014 and Chris in 2018 both reached mid-Cat 2 in July off the Southeast.

[SFLcane]

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

[toad strangler]

Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge.

Well, we all know that post Antilles re-curves off the SE US coast is the Atlantic I-95. So that is my expectation until an anomalous 500mb setup tells me otherwise.

[SFLcane]

Sure thing if that pattern came to pass on the CS3 it clearly supports troughs undercutting the ridge.

Well, we all know that post Antilles re-curves off the SE US coast is the Atlantic I-95. So that is my expectation until an anomalous 500mb setup tells me otherwise.

Forecast could be wrong just saying most members of C3S are not showing a pattern conducive for Florida landfalls. EC being the notable exception.

If + nao verifies storms could get further west surely and as you know it all comes down to timing yet again. ridge/trough placement. Personally i am watching if we get a ridge over Canada and a Rockies trough or not. Certainly wouldn't write off any possibility!

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/tlefortmeteo/status/1537075189598625793

[Iceresistance]

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png

It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

[skyline385]

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png

It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

[Category5Kaiju]

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png

It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/24c1976d662f26fe38d2b91897cc6574.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/bce338fa21cf1c8edea9abab1abcc056.jpg

While not quite at 2017/2020 levels currently, I think it is safe to say that especially if the predicted trend plays out, this year will very likely surpass the 2016/2018/2019/2021 bunch in terms of MDR warmth

[SFLcane]

UKMET, ECMWF, JMA precip are all into the caribbean.

[Deshaunrob17]

Warming up! subtracting the global mean also shows it.

https://i.postimg.cc/RC2XQvqz/sst.png

It's been a while since I've seen the MDR this warm in June.

We are still plenty behind 2020

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/24c1976d662f26fe38d2b91897cc6574.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220615/bce338fa21cf1c8edea9abab1abcc056.jpg

It’s possible we even pass 2017 / 2020 if the upcoming pattern verifies . I’m really curious to see how this map looks month end. I thought the last 2 weeks would have really reversed the anomalies but it’s still warmer than normal. Imagine when the westerlies kick in soon

[SFLcane]

ECMWF CS3 ASO close-up

[Category5Kaiju]

From what I am seeing, I genuinely think that this season is bound to feature at least several major land impacts unfortunately. With so many models insistent on a wetter Caribbean (and where storms that trek through that region of the Atlantic typically end up hitting land inevitably at some point thanks to the geography), it would be a rather major miracle if by the end of this season the Caribbean-bordering islands and regions are spared. As for the CONUS, I'm still a bit uncertain as to how bad this season will be in the end, but given the La Nina and higher chance of seeing Caribbean tracking storms, I feel that the Gulf may be a place to watch, especially if these storms curve northward due to troughing in that region. A 2010 redux at this point imho is rather unlikely to happen, although that of course would be much welcomed considering the blitzkrieg of devastating storms from the past 6 consecutive years.

[SFLcane]

One of them take Frances/Irma type track towards South Florida. Long range CFS so use with extreme caution but the fact its showing wave after wave trying to develop is a good sign a few make could surely make it west.