2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2574
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Pretty bullish 12Z EPS with one member going straight through Florida, also lots of members through PR and DR
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Jun 18, 2022 3:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
What is interesting is that instead of the wave getting weaker in the Caribbean, it is getting stronger.
It's just barely crossed into the Caribbean at end of run but something to watch.
3 likes
- MHC Tracking
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 170
- Joined: Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:05 am
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Jeez, no wonder why the Euro is optimistic about that particular MDR system...
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- captainbarbossa19
- Category 5
- Posts: 1040
- Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mCesakn.png
Jeez, no wonder why the Euro is optimistic about that particular MDR system...
I hope if something forms, it stays weak and comes to Texas. My area is about 33% of it's normal annual rainfall this year.
0 likes
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 743
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Pretty bullish 12Z EPS with one member going straight through Florida, also lots of members through PR and DR
https://i.imgur.com/dVRAbzA.png
EPS says a CCKW will be propagating across the MDR late this month, so that's probably what the operational is hinting at with those strong waves. Could help give them a little boost.
4 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif
When theGFS or GEFS shows future possible MDR activity, meh. When the Euro does,
6 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This potential future MDR system reminds me a bit of Elsa due to its decently low latitude. Only this time, I feel that with the relaxed trades, it may not be an exact Elsa-2.0 repeat, especially considering Elsa was blasted with speed shear due to the fast trades last year.
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
InfernoFlameCat wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/icIFc6d.gif
When theGFS or GEFS shows future possible MDR activity, meh. When the Euro does,
Should be inversed. As last year showed us a lot of the time the EPS is stronger with MDR waves at long ranges
3 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
On the 12z Euro I guesstimated the speed of the vortmax, seemed somewhere around 15kt. Think it was a little slower for Emily.
Agreed probably won't become that strong if anything, it's late June/early July in a climatologically unfavored place. Usually don't get much in a place like that
2 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 193
- Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
This a really good point. I would love see Emily / Dennis case study .. I know SST was hella warm but what about the rest
2 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Deshaunrob17 wrote:aspen wrote:How do the forecast trades around the time that strong wave tries to develop/reaches the Lesser Antilles compare to the trades when Emily ‘05 formed and reached the Caribbean?
Right now I’m expecting something similar to either Bret ‘17 (typical weak early season storm) or Beryl ‘18/Elsa ‘21 (low-end hurricane with a small core that gets ripped apart) at the most, if this even forms.
This a really good point. I would love see Emily / Dennis case study .. I know SST was hella warm but what about the rest
The Caribbean iirc also had abnormally low shear during that timeframe. Getting a July Cat 3 is rare, but getting a July Cat 4 and 5 is exceptionally rare. I'm sure there is a good reason to this aside from favorable ssts, reduced trades, etc. However, I can't definitively say that just because it happened then and is rare means it cannot happen again, whether it's this season or in a future year. But yeah, I was a 4-year-old babbling toddler when Dennis and Emily happened, so I personally do not know the intricacies behind how exactly they happened, at least from a wx tracker's perspective. Would love to research it more though if possible.
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2014
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
There it is.
7 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3438
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
There it is.
https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:cycloneye wrote:ScottNAtlanta wrote:Are these model runs tracking the wave that just came off? That wave looks really robust. It also has a very sharp axis
There it is.
https://i.imgur.com/UZsH3vx.gif
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it
1 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2574
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it
Kinda hilarious how the tables have now turned lol
2 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:NotSparta wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:
The left wave interests me, just checked and it seems to be under relatively light shear. Are we sure this can’t at least become some weak and brief system? Or is the dust the limiting factor?
Looks like it has a date with South America. The right wave is probably more interesting. It should move north and not develop, but the Euro shows a lobe of vorticity breaking off and trying to form in about 10 days. Will it happen? We'll see. GFS doesn't buy it
Kinda hilarious how the tables have now turned lol
Indeed. Out here with the AEWs coming off Africa the Euro is the development-happy model
2 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, Emmett_Brown, gatorcane, HurakaYoshi, jgh, NDG, TallyTracker, tolakram, zzzh and 104 guests