2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

It's something that I am genuinely curious to see, but we haven't had a decently active early August (at least one with major hurricanes) in a while. The typical pattern in recent years has been for the first major hurricane to form after the August 20 bell-ringing date, but it's also (unlike seeing July Cat 4s or 5s lol) not terribly uncommon historically-speaking for early August to feature at least one major hurricane. We notably saw this with storms such as Camille, Allen, and Charley. Now whether this year breaks that kind of pattern (especially considering the cool subtropics, which I personally think would destabilize the MDR and perhaps allow for a more favorable early August than normal) is up in the air, though it certainly would be intriguing to see something like that happen.

[skyline385]

Folks, the shearing Tutt is likely to be no were to be found come early August. The doors are wide open for a strengthening TC.

Unless a recurving typhoon pumps up one like Malakas did in September 2020. In a VP anomaly chart in one of the tweets cycloneye posted, there looks to be a Kelvin Wave going through the WPac in the first week of August. That could trigger some WPac development, but seeing how this year has gone so far, something capable of pumping a TUTT isn’t particularly likely. Still a slim possibility.

Papin also talked about how TUTT evolution isnt something you can accurately predict on a ensemble plot 2 months in the future, simply because the scale is too small for ensembles (which are already blending in when 2 months in the future) to correctly simulate. So all of the talks about a lack or presence of TUTT is not set in stone, we wont know until we are in August.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1545403605150310402




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1545406657412431873

[Hurricaneman]

The thing the models are showing is the bell ringing early for the big stuff this year, similar to 2004 but let’s hope something unforeseen happens like more of a TUTT or an unforeseen trough to recurve systems because if not this could be a blockbuster season with many hurricane landfalls but as said above unforeseen things can and sometimes do happen

[St0rmTh0r]

The thing the models are showing is the bell ringing early for the big stuff this year, similar to 2004 but let’s hope something unforeseen happens like more of a TUTT or an unforeseen trough to recurve systems because if not this could be a blockbuster season with many hurricane landfalls but as said above unforeseen things can and sometimes do happen

this is looking like a year that could feature the longest stretch of storms eve seen. August thru november of non stop storms is possible.

[skyline385]

The thing the models are showing is the bell ringing early for the big stuff this year, similar to 2004 but let’s hope something unforeseen happens like more of a TUTT or an unforeseen trough to recurve systems because if not this could be a blockbuster season with many hurricane landfalls but as said above unforeseen things can and sometimes do happen

this is looking like a year that could feature the longest stretch of storms eve seen. August thru november of non stop storms is possible.

Err nothing so far has implied that so I would suggest to keep expectations in check. It might be a hyperactive season but we haven't had any indications of a record breaking season yet. A continuous stretch of storms from August to Nov would be a repeat of 2020 with May-July removed and we don't have the setup for that.

[Hammy]

It's something that I am genuinely curious to see, but we haven't had a decently active early August (at least one with major hurricanes) in a while. The typical pattern in recent years has been for the first major hurricane to form after the August 20 bell-ringing date, but it's also (unlike seeing July Cat 4s or 5s lol) not terribly uncommon historically-speaking for early August to feature at least one major hurricane. We notably saw this with storms such as Camille, Allen, and Charley. Now whether this year breaks that kind of pattern (especially considering the cool subtropics, which I personally think would destabilize the MDR and perhaps allow for a more favorable early August than normal) is up in the air, though it certainly would be intriguing to see something like that happen.

August is a weird month. Even some of the most active seasons have gone the first 2-3 weeks with literally nothing only to suddenly light up around the bell day, and below average seasons have had storms sprinkled through the month. It's actually uncommon to have major hurricanes the first half of August (Camille was on the 16th), and since 1960 has only happened six years, interestingly group in three years during single decade spans--something I didn't even see until I logged them.

1970: Celia (Aug 1)
1976: Belle (Aug 8)
1980: Allen (Aug 4)

1995: Felix (Aug 12)
2000: Alberto (Aug 12)
2004: Alex (Aug 5); Charley (Aug 12)

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1546443724460363776

[cycloneye]

What worries me the most is the continuous mention of "Caribbean looks to have an active season".

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1546443728080048129

[SFLcane]

The Tutt is shoved northward opening the door.

[skyline385]

What worries me the most is the continuous mention of "Caribbean looks to have an active season".

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1546443728080048129

CFS has been trending north for the last few runs for what it's worth. UKMET clearly decided to side with the EURO here, think the C3S ensembles are out soon too but those will most likely be Caribbean focused too because of the EURO and UKMET.

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1546479190064730112

[USTropics]

CFS monthly VP anomalies for August have been slowly correcting themselves more westward over the past 20 runs:


-200mb VP anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean/Eastern Africa invigorates African Easterly Waves before they enter the Atlantic basin.

[USTropics]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1546479190064730112

Definite divergence in the 00z ensemble runs from today as well:

[skyline385]

For reference, 1999 - 177 ACE & 2011 - 121 ACE

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1546475996903346178

[cycloneye]

These were my replies to Andy.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1546468846059520001




 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1546476412630175746

[zzh]

EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

[SoupBone]

For reference, 1999 - 177 ACE & 2011 - 121 ACE

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1546475996903346178

2011 had a lot of East Coast systems too, kind of in line with what Wxman57 was thinking for this year's season.



1999 was also an East Coast favored season.

[SFLcane]

CFS monthly VP anomalies for August have been slowly correcting themselves more westward over the past 20 runs:
https://i.imgur.com/mY1LkTP.gif

+200mb VP anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean/Eastern Africa invigorates African Easterly Waves before they enter the Atlantic basin.

You mean -VP200.

[USTropics]

CFS monthly VP anomalies for August have been slowly correcting themselves more westward over the past 20 runs:
https://i.imgur.com/mY1LkTP.gif

+200mb VP anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean/Eastern Africa invigorates African Easterly Waves before they enter the Atlantic basin.

Good catch, yea that should have been -200mb VP anomalies/large-scale rising motion over WIO/Eastern Africa.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

What do you mean about "not a good sign for the Atlantic"?