2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[AtlanticWind]

If storm 2k allowed betting on the website, I think I could make a lot of money in July

[weeniepatrol]

If storm 2k allowed betting on the website, I think I could make a lot of money in July

buy low, sell high! get your $MDR calls while they're cheap

[Teban54]

Seeing how frequently 1995, 96, 98, 99 appear in analog years for this year got me thinking:

While it's impressive to have 4 out of 5 seasons during 1995-99 hitting hyperactive ACE, most of their September storms are classic recurving MDR storms that either go OTS or scrape the NE Caribbean and/or the Carolinas, with Georges and perhaps Fran being the only exceptions. In other words, they're the ideal type of storms for generating ACE. In contrast, early indicators for 2022 suggest a Caribbean-heavy season with strong ridging.

I know ridge forecasts are tricky, but my point is: Is the difference between hyperactive ACE (>159.6) and high-end above-average ACE more based on luck and steering? A season like 2008 could have easily become officially hyperactive if it wasn't so west-based. 2020 would have also ended up with "merely" above-average ACE if Eta and Iota didn't form.

[Category5Kaiju]

Seeing how frequently 1995, 96, 98, 99 appear in analog years for this year got me thinking:

While it's impressive to have 4 out of 5 seasons during 1995-99 hitting hyperactive ACE, most of their September storms are classic recurving MDR storms that either go OTS or scrape the NE Caribbean and/or the Carolinas, with Georges and perhaps Fran being the only exceptions. In other words, they're the ideal type of storms for generating ACE. In contrast, early indicators for 2022 suggest a Caribbean-heavy season with strong ridging.

I know ridge forecasts are tricky, but my point is: Is the difference between hyperactive ACE (>159.6) and high-end above-average ACE more based on luck and steering? A season like 2008 could have easily become officially hyperactive if it wasn't so west-based. 2020 would have also ended up with "merely" above-average ACE if Eta and Iota didn't form.

2008 is arguably the most memorable and scariest non-hyperactive year we've had in recent times. It is also the only recorded hurricane season that was operationally not a hyperactive year but featured at least 5 major hurricanes. 2008 had several notable beasts (Gustav, Ike, and Paloma), but I can guarantee you that if any of those storms were stronger and longer lasting (maybe take Ike for instance; like if Ike was a Cat 5 storm at its peak instead), then 2008 could have easily gone hyperactive.

[Deshaunrob17]

Seeing how frequently 1995, 96, 98, 99 appear in analog years for this year got me thinking:

While it's impressive to have 4 out of 5 seasons during 1995-99 hitting hyperactive ACE, most of their September storms are classic recurving MDR storms that either go OTS or scrape the NE Caribbean and/or the Carolinas, with Georges and perhaps Fran being the only exceptions. In other words, they're the ideal type of storms for generating ACE. In contrast, early indicators for 2022 suggest a Caribbean-heavy season with strong ridging.

I know ridge forecasts are tricky, but my point is: Is the difference between hyperactive ACE (>159.6) and high-end above-average ACE more based on luck and steering? A season like 2008 could have easily become officially hyperactive if it wasn't so west-based. 2020 would have also ended up with "merely" above-average ACE if Eta and Iota didn't form.

You’re right!! Too much of a west based season reduced Ace because of land interaction and lack of time!!!! However, I feel like there is a fine lining because too much OTS prevents storms from reaching their max potential due to less ocean heat content, cooler SSTs, dry air and sometimes shear (2010 for example) …
I feel like the seasons where MDR storms are directed to the NE Caribbean and curve away from continental US tend to have to greatest ACE
However seasons where MDR storms track into the Caribbean can produce high Ace if atmospheric conditions are there.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I just stumbled across this, but apparently 2017 had a similar sst anomaly profile that we have now, with a rather cool subtropics and lack of a pronounced +AMO horseshoe by around the similar time of the year.

While yes it is true that 2017's MDR warmth is much greater than 2022, I don't personally think that that cool subtropical pool and a lack of a strong Canary Current by this time in late July is necessarily as huge of a detriment to a season's potential as some are suggesting. If years like 1996, 1998, or 1999 could exceed 2013 in activity despite starting off with cooler MDR sst anomalies, and if a year like 2010 with dragon fire-like warmth in the MDR was exceeded by a year like 2017 with cooler MDR sst anomalies...this just shows you how upper-level conditions such as shear and dry air are arguably more important than sst anomalies, and sst anomalies tell just a part of the story.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.27.2017.gif

So I just stumbled across this, but apparently 2017 had a similar sst anomaly profile that we have now, with a rather cool subtropics and lack of a pronounced +AMO horseshoe by around the similar time of the year.

While yes it is true that 2017's MDR warmth is much greater than 2022, I don't personally think that that cool subtropical pool and a lack of a strong Canary Current by this time in late July is necessarily as huge of a detriment to a season's potential as some are suggesting. If years like 1996, 1998, or 1999 could exceed 2013 in activity despite starting off with cooler MDR sst anomalies, and if a year like 2010 with dragon fire-like warmth in the MDR was exceeded by a year like 2017 with cooler MDR sst anomalies...this just shows you how upper-level conditions such as shear and dry air are arguably more important than sst anomalies, and sst anomalies tell just a part of the story.

Really it doesn't look that much different on the Atlantic side. This image is also 5km instead of 50.

[NotSparta]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.27.2017.gif

So I just stumbled across this, but apparently 2017 had a similar sst anomaly profile that we have now, with a rather cool subtropics and lack of a pronounced +AMO horseshoe by around the similar time of the year.

While yes it is true that 2017's MDR warmth is much greater than 2022, I don't personally think that that cool subtropical pool and a lack of a strong Canary Current by this time in late July is necessarily as huge of a detriment to a season's potential as some are suggesting. If years like 1996, 1998, or 1999 could exceed 2013 in activity despite starting off with cooler MDR sst anomalies, and if a year like 2010 with dragon fire-like warmth in the MDR was exceeded by a year like 2017 with cooler MDR sst anomalies...this just shows you how upper-level conditions such as shear and dry air are arguably more important than sst anomalies, and sst anomalies tell just a part of the story.

Really it doesn't look that much different on the Atlantic side. This image is also 5km instead of 50.

https://i.imgur.com/cyqmVDX.png

Here's a comparison of the two. Atlantic a little cooler overall at the lower latitudes

[aspen]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.7.27.2017.gif

So I just stumbled across this, but apparently 2017 had a similar sst anomaly profile that we have now, with a rather cool subtropics and lack of a pronounced +AMO horseshoe by around the similar time of the year.

While yes it is true that 2017's MDR warmth is much greater than 2022, I don't personally think that that cool subtropical pool and a lack of a strong Canary Current by this time in late July is necessarily as huge of a detriment to a season's potential as some are suggesting. If years like 1996, 1998, or 1999 could exceed 2013 in activity despite starting off with cooler MDR sst anomalies, and if a year like 2010 with dragon fire-like warmth in the MDR was exceeded by a year like 2017 with cooler MDR sst anomalies...this just shows you how upper-level conditions such as shear and dry air are arguably more important than sst anomalies, and sst anomalies tell just a part of the story.

Really it doesn't look that much different on the Atlantic side. This image is also 5km instead of 50.

https://i.imgur.com/cyqmVDX.png

Here's a comparison of the two. Atlantic a little cooler overall at the lower latitudes

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/661421636003823632/1001195791223881809/crw_compare.gif

What’s remarkable about the 2022 SSTA map is that massive warm blob south of Alaska. I’d imagine something of that magnitude would have some impact on weather patterns. I don’t think it’s in the exact same position, but it reminds me of The Blob from the mid 2010s. Did The Blob coincide with the 2014-16 Niño and the 2014-18 EPac active steak?

[NotSparta]

Really it doesn't look that much different on the Atlantic side. This image is also 5km instead of 50.

https://i.imgur.com/cyqmVDX.png

Here's a comparison of the two. Atlantic a little cooler overall at the lower latitudes

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/661421636003823632/1001195791223881809/crw_compare.gif

What’s remarkable about the 2022 SSTA map is that massive warm blob south of Alaska. I’d imagine something of that magnitude would have some impact on weather patterns. I don’t think it’s in the exact same position, but it reminds me of The Blob from the mid 2010s. Did The Blob coincide with the 2014-16 Niño and the 2014-18 EPac active steak?

It did, but back then I believe it was further east. It reinforced the +PDO then but right now that warm blob is a sign that -PDO persists

[cycloneye]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

[captainbarbossa19]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/nxeMrn2.png

The two maxima on the map are interesting. It almost looks like the waves might be moving off further north, but bending WSW. I am wondering if that could be indicative of a strong ridge?

[skyline385]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

Caribbean activity picking up in last week of August and September first week.



Another interesting feature from todays weeklies was how dry the east coast of Florida is

[Spacecoast]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

Climotology for same period....

[SFLcane]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/nxeMrn2.png

TS frequency is below climo lol.

[aspen]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/nxeMrn2.png

TS frequency is below climo lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb9CCnPz/3-B4899-B5-1233-450-D-923-C-1552-EC65301-A.jpg

Looks like the EPac has finally shut off by mid-August on the Euro.

[SoupBone]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/nxeMrn2.png

This is a matter of perspective. If you like tropical systems, I don't think this images is picking up any moods.

[Category5Kaiju]

Let's see if this can rise the mood here. Here are the EPS weeklies from August 15th thru the 20th when activity picks up.

https://i.imgur.com/nxeMrn2.png

TS frequency is below climo lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/Bb9CCnPz/3-B4899-B5-1233-450-D-923-C-1552-EC65301-A.jpg

It's below average in the WPAC and EPAC too tho

[Nimbus]

African waves still have the SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

[weeniepatrol]

Probably still just a tad too early, but there is this