NDG wrote:ThomasW wrote:With the GFS showing continued atmospheric wavebreaking in the subtropics, pushing massive amounts of dry air into the MDR, prospects for an above average season this year are starting to look dim at best. No waves are able to cross the MDR intact as a result of this pattern. No MDR invests in the last month. Not a hint at genuine TCG from models up to TAUU 384. This isn't your "normal lull". This is what a below average season looks like. If the Atlantic is lucky, it can squeeze in a couple stronger homegrown storms in September and October. But the MDR looks dead for the foreseeable future (up to the end of August). The only hope for above average activity is the CFS/ECMWF solution playing out, but with the biases of those models that feels unlikely. Feels like 2007 in a way, likely without Dean and possibly Felix too. I expect fully to see CSU, etc drop their forecasts massively on August 20 when Danielle hasn't formed by then.
If today would have been mid to late August instead of July 31st I would have agreed with you about looking like a below average season so far.
By no ways this is looking like a hyperactive season in the making but to say it will be a below average or even an average season is way too soon to say, IMO.
My amateurish thoughts.
categorizing seasons into nine types, (in terms of distribution / activity):
Front loaded season, hyperactivity levelFront loaded season, normal activity level: -Looking less likely
Front loaded season, tepid activity level: -Possible, not likely (La Niña)
Normal distribution, hyperactivity level: -looking less likely?
Normal distribution, normal activity level: -Possible
Normal distribution, tepid activity level: -Not likely, due to La Niña
Back loaded season, hyperactivity level: -Possible. -Too early to tell
Back loaded season, normal activity level: -Possible, (maybe looking more likely). -Too early to tell
Back loaded season, tepid activity level: -Possible. -Not likely?(La Niña). Too early to tell.
It may be safe to say that 2022 will not be a front loaded, hyper season.
Everything else is still on the table, IMHO.
Perhaps 2022 will be a back loaded season, with just 'above average' activity .
note: "average" activity depends on how far back you go. ...
CSU uses 1991-2020 (14.4 NS/ 7.2 Hurr / 3.2 MH), but there are others:
1950-2021 (11.8 NS/ 6.4 Hurr / 2.8 MH)
1851-2021 (9.7 NS/ 5.5 Hurr / 2.0 MH)