2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
weeniepatrol
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1276
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Location: WA State

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2381 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:43 pm

As expected, the African suppression associated with a transient MJO earlier in July has been wiped out

Image

Image
5 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 552
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2382 Postby jconsor » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:53 pm

Counterpoint to some recent discussions about anomalously dry air in MDR persisting into mid-August. Looks to me like significant changes are afoot with a moister MDR expected beginning in about 7-10 days.

Given the improved upper level pattern/reduced shear as well as gradual moistening of the MDR, I would expect a TC to form in the MDR by the third week of Aug, perhaps a day or two earlier.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554183378940923907




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554189984290291714




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554187268369391618


Last edited by jconsor on Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
11 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2383 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:27 pm

New Weeklies look solid the Atlantic wakes up 2-3 week of August. I'd like to see other guidance comes onboard.
1 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 552
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2384 Postby jconsor » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:30 pm

Update on the expected pressure pattern for Aug and resultant SST trends for the MDR.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554198394264068096




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554202613889089536


4 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2385 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:53 pm

From today's weeklies, that is probably a potential Caribbean cruiser with another one behind it

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2386 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:59 pm

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8
7 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2387 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8


Indeed! Looks very favorable on the new weeklies. This period can't bust, or the season will.
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2388 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:46 pm

SFLcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8


Indeed! Looks very favorable on the new weeklies. This period can't bust, or the season will.


As you haved said in this thread is Mark about trimming by one or two the numbers.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2389 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 01, 2022 5:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8


William Gray didn't focus on 8/20 for nothing!

Need AC/DC Hells Bells playing
3 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2390 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:04 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8


William Gray didn't focus on 8/20 for nothing!

Need AC/DC Hells Bells playing


There's a reason it includes the lyrics "I'm comin' on, like a hurricane!" (Apparently Brian Johnson was inspired by a tropical thunderstorm in the Bahamas where they were recording, although Back in Black wasn't recorded during hurricane season).
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2728
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Houston TX

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2391 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:52 pm

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere :eek:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4982
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2392 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:12 pm

skyline385 wrote:From today's weeklies, they are everywhere :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png


Looks like 80% fish storms. Not that I really believe that though.
0 likes   

User avatar
LemieT
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 78
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:31 pm
Location: Barbados

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2393 Postby LemieT » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:00 am

skyline385 wrote:From today's weeklies, they are everywhere :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png


Looks like a giant seafood menu. Who's hungry? :lol:
1 likes   

NCSUFan_WX
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2022 7:26 am
Location: Okinawa

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2394 Postby NCSUFan_WX » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:00 am

skyline385 wrote:From today's weeklies, they are everywhere :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png


I spot Hurricane Fran 2.0 :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2395 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:18 am

skyline385 wrote:From today's weeklies, they are everywhere :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png


Worth noting how far north the waves continue to come off. Seems like this is becoming a permanent thing over the last several years
3 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2396 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:10 am

1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2397 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:22 am

4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2398 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:38 am

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554480217246560257




Not sure the two are related other than coincidentally but here's the 1998 season:

Image
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2399 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:09 pm

The hurricanes are coming folks.. Watch this! :crazyeyes:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145455
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2400 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:11 pm

I posted this tweet in the experts thread but also brought it here for discussion from the members.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], Steve H. and 65 guests