2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[weeniepatrol]

As expected, the African suppression associated with a transient MJO earlier in July has been wiped out

[jconsor]

Counterpoint to some recent discussions about anomalously dry air in MDR persisting into mid-August. Looks to me like significant changes are afoot with a moister MDR expected beginning in about 7-10 days.

Given the improved upper level pattern/reduced shear as well as gradual moistening of the MDR, I would expect a TC to form in the MDR by the third week of Aug, perhaps a day or two earlier.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554183378940923907




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554189984290291714




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554187268369391618

[SFLcane]

New Weeklies look solid the Atlantic wakes up 2-3 week of August. I'd like to see other guidance comes onboard.

[jconsor]

Update on the expected pressure pattern for Aug and resultant SST trends for the MDR.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554198394264068096




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1554202613889089536

[skyline385]

From today's weeklies, that is probably a potential Caribbean cruiser with another one behind it

[cycloneye]

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8

[SFLcane]

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8

Indeed! Looks very favorable on the new weeklies. This period can't bust, or the season will.

[cycloneye]

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8

Indeed! Looks very favorable on the new weeklies. This period can't bust, or the season will.

As you haved said in this thread is Mark about trimming by one or two the numbers.

[toad strangler]

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8

William Gray didn't focus on 8/20 for nothing!

Need AC/DC Hells Bells playing

[SconnieCane]

Great video from our friend Mark Sudduth. Things are about to flip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JihgYc4T0O8

William Gray didn't focus on 8/20 for nothing!

Need AC/DC Hells Bells playing

There's a reason it includes the lyrics "I'm comin' on, like a hurricane!" (Apparently Brian Johnson was inspired by a tropical thunderstorm in the Bahamas where they were recording, although Back in Black wasn't recorded during hurricane season).

[skyline385]

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere

[Cpv17]

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png

Looks like 80% fish storms. Not that I really believe that though.

[LemieT]

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png

Looks like a giant seafood menu. Who's hungry?

[NCSUFan_WX]

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png

I spot Hurricane Fran 2.0

[Hammy]

From today's weeklies, they are everywhere

https://i.imgur.com/DD4Hj5P.png

Worth noting how far north the waves continue to come off. Seems like this is becoming a permanent thing over the last several years

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1554475312477528064

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1554481703699324931

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554480217246560257




Not sure the two are related other than coincidentally but here's the 1998 season:

[SFLcane]

The hurricanes are coming folks.. Watch this!

[cycloneye]

I posted this tweet in the experts thread but also brought it here for discussion from the members.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792