2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Blown Away
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#1081 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:04 pm

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GEFS still EPAC heavy with the rogue Cat 2/3 into TX.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1082 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:04 am

0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season. GEFS & GEPS however still aren’t showing any MDR activity at all, including on the 35-day long range GEFS. So someone will bust, probably the GEFS at this point simply based on climo.

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Last edited by skyline385 on Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1083 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:35 am

skyline385 wrote:0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220803/310ed25d9ab21e7cecd5f06d4f0c68ce.jpg

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1084 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:41 am

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00z GEFS... Noticing in the GEFS & long range CFS the BH in the W Atlantic is not to strong and nearly all members that develop recurve. CFS long range has shown most systems moving N of the Caribbean and well E of the CONUS for weeks.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1085 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:34 am

Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1086 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:33 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif


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Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1087 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:38 am

Blown Away wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif


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Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...

That low latitude though, it looks like it’s still embedded in the ITCZ.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1088 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:45 am

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12z ICON... Hinting at a low with a big slug of moisture in the long range... :?:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1089 Postby crownweather » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:51 am

12Z GFS now showing signs of life with both a low latitude system in the MDR AND a system right along the US Southeast Coast late next week/next weekend.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1090 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:51 am

GFS is waking up.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1091 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:01 pm

And MDR.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1092 Postby Teban54 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:11 pm

That Gulf Stream rider on 12z GFS reminds me of Alex 2004, just a bit weaker.
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1093 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:26 pm

That MDR system gets showed into the Carribean and starts weakening just from its speed.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1094 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:45 pm

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12z GFS... Finger on switch...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1095 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:14 pm

The 12Z EPS out to August 13th looks to me to be a good bit more active than the the 0Z EPS with both an MDR wave and a low just off the SE US coast. This suggests there could be two NS within 10 days. Nothing quiet at all about this run.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1096 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:17 pm

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12z EURO has a large TW moving off Africa in @6 days moving fast across Atlantic near NE Caribbean in 10 days...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1097 Postby skyline385 » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:22 pm

12Z EPS increasing in activity

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1098 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:01 pm

:uarrow: Many category 1/2 hurricanes moving towards the Northeast Caribbean
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1099 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:14 pm

18z GEFS ensembles show a few more spread out in the basin and mainly in MDR.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1100 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:25 am

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06 GFS... Amazing, EPAC just keeps pumping hurricanes out one after another. I count 4 hurricanes and 1 TS this run.
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