2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1081 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:04 pm

GEFS still EPAC heavy with the rogue Cat 2/3 into TX.

skyline385 · #1082 Postby **skyline385** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:04 am

0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season. GEFS & GEPS however still aren’t showing any MDR activity at all, including on the 35-day long range GEFS. So someone will bust, probably the GEFS at this point simply based on climo.

#1083 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:35 am

skyline385 wrote:0Z EPS with more MDR activity, let's see if this one holds after busting twice this season.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220803/310ed25d9ab21e7cecd5f06d4f0c68ce.jpg

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

90% of hurricanes happen after Aug. 1; climatology says this one sticks. My way too loud generator that was purchased after Wilma has been retired, Champion had some great deals last weekend on Amazon, too good to pass up, let's hope I don't need it.

#1084 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:41 am

00z GEFS... Noticing in the GEFS & long range CFS the BH in the W Atlantic is not to strong and nearly all members that develop recurve. CFS long range has shown most systems moving N of the Caribbean and well E of the CONUS for weeks.

DorkyMcDorkface · #1085 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:34 am

Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.

#1086 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:33 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif

Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...

skyline385 · #1087 Postby **skyline385** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:38 am

Blown Away wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Last night's CMC run showed signs of life in the long range with a TD in the MDR. Perhaps it's the same thing the EPS likes but it's hard to know for sure.
https://i.ibb.co/C5Q8zTx/gem-z850-vort-eatl-fh180-240.gif

Yep, GEM/CMC hinting at something in the long range in the Central Atlantic...

That low latitude though, it looks like it’s still embedded in the ITCZ.

#1088 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:45 am

12z ICON... Hinting at a low with a big slug of moisture in the long range... :?:

#1089 Postby **crownweather** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:51 am

12Z GFS now showing signs of life with both a low latitude system in the MDR AND a system right along the US Southeast Coast late next week/next weekend.

#1090 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:51 am

GFS is waking up.

#1091 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:01 pm

And MDR.

Teban54 · #1092 Postby **Teban54** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:11 pm

That Gulf Stream rider on 12z GFS reminds me of Alex 2004, just a bit weaker.

skyline385 · #1093 Postby **skyline385** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:26 pm

That MDR system gets showed into the Carribean and starts weakening just from its speed.

#1094 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:45 pm

12z GFS... Finger on switch...

LarryWx · #1095 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:14 pm

The 12Z EPS out to August 13th looks to me to be a good bit more active than the the 0Z EPS with both an MDR wave and a low just off the SE US coast. This suggests there could be two NS within 10 days. Nothing quiet at all about this run.

#1096 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:17 pm

12z EURO has a large TW moving off Africa in @6 days moving fast across Atlantic near NE Caribbean in 10 days...

skyline385 · #1097 Postby **skyline385** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:22 pm

12Z EPS increasing in activity

#1098 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:01 pm

Many category 1/2 hurricanes moving towards the Northeast Caribbean

#1099 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:14 pm

18z GEFS ensembles show a few more spread out in the basin and mainly in MDR.

#1100 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:25 am

06 GFS... Amazing, EPAC just keeps pumping hurricanes out one after another. I count 4 hurricanes and 1 TS this run.