2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

Good point. The goal posts for the activity to begin bigtime keeps pushing back.

[skyline385]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

Good point. The goal posts for the activity to begin bigtime keeps pushing back.

Also so far it’s only the EURO which keeps hinting at MDR activity (which has busted twice already this season). There is nothing so far on the GEFS or the Canadian ensembles, now models are prone to suddenly flipping as conditions become favourable but like you said the date does seem to be pushing back for now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Models are unreliable here. Climo almost always wins. Even in an inactive season we would see activity spur around mid to late august. Every year these models are wrong about this. Models were dead wrong about Laura. They missed grace. Harvey defied expectations. Models are a bunch of bologna 200+ hours out. And it’s still only slightly better more than 5 days out.

[weeniepatrol]

Another way of visualizing it.

https://i.imgur.com/QEY52GW.png

Great graphic. Is there a link to it?

Was posted on the r/tropicalweather subreddit, by user u/giantspeck. His twitter handle is @giantspeckwx

[skyline385]

Models are unreliable here. Climo almost always wins. Even in an inactive season we would see activity spur around mid to late august. Every year these models are wrong about this. Models were dead wrong about Laura. They missed grace. Harvey defied expectations. Models are a bunch of bologna 200+ hours out. And it’s still only slightly better more than 5 days out.

Agree with your sentiment but only the EURO completely busted on Laura (and probably remains one of its biggest busts in recent years), every other model caught it. The GFS was hinting at a major long before the system got in the Gulf. Meanwhile the EURO was playing with a TD/TS while it was RI’ing over the loop current.

[aspen]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

Good point. The goal posts for the activity to begin bigtime keeps pushing back.

I was always skeptical when people on Twitter were saying activity could start up in late July. The same thing was said last year, and that never happened. I was right to assume it would take longer for the Atlantic to wake up, but now it looks like the drought will last longer than 2021.

Nothing is right in the tropics this year. The Atlantic has been unusually lackluster compared to the last two Nina years at this time, the EPac won’t quit, and the WPac is the least active in decades. Maybe we’re going to have a 1998-like year where the Atlantic’s peak gets shoved back by a few weeks and we’ll get some unusually late types of storms (like Georges, being a high-ACE, non-recurving MDR long-tracker in late September).

[cycloneye]

One of the culprits for the MDR to not turn active continues to be the SAL outbreaks.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1554838976036589568

[Steve]

1) Dust is still dominating in the Atlantic basin as it almost always does in July and early August. Only the Caribbean and Gulf in the western end of the ocean have less Saharan dust.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... split.html

2) MJO moved into favorable phases a bit ago, but there wasn't anything on the table yet. 3 of the better MJO models (in my opinion) are showing a move into favorable phases again around the 9th or 10th. It's still early for there to be much tropical reaction from that amplification. But if it stays down in 2 for a while, it becomes just a matter of when.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml

3) Early August - see that digital graph posted on the last page. It's not supposed to be active right now and, surprise, it isn't. Things will change. A little bit of amplification and a couple of CCKW's moving across the Atlantic between now and the beginning of the peak will do the trick as they do just about each and every year.

[toad strangler]

The Atlantic Gorilla is gonna escape the cage. Nothing is amiss or off IMO. SAL still reigns supreme like a pack of T-Rex across the MDR but that aint anomalous right now or even into mid August. Lots of speculation abounds on what this third year LaNina could mean but it's just noise because no one really knows. So if anything, NOW is the time to finish off personal preps, while it is deafeningly quiet. For me, ACE and number of storms don't mean a thing. Dodging whatever bullets that WILL come does matter. As we should all know, a strike by a strong storm could have gobs of people suddenly wishing there were no storms and no ACE come December.

[WiscoWx02]

And the GFS has woken up with a MDR tropical cyclone next weekend…know it’s a long ways off but this is the first time in over a month the GFS has even had anything in the Atlantic. CFS, GFS and EPS all picking up on the switch flip around 10th to some extent.

[LarryWx]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

Not necessarily imho. The midpoint (8/16) is still nearly two weeks out. That's well beyond any kind of reliability of even the ensembles. Of course, it may turn out be inactive then like the models suggest. But I recall times when the ensembles consistently showed quiet day after day going out two weeks only to see them get fooled by the sudden start of an active period no more than just a few days out.

Even if 8/16 is quiet, that's not to say that it couldn't get active by, say 8/20, like 1942 (no TC til Aug 17th followed by 3 late Aug Hs), 1949 (1st TC not til Aug 20th followed by a whopping 6 NS the subsequent 16 days), 1999 (no TC June 19th-Aug 17th followed by a whopping 4 NS the subsequent week), and 2019 (no TC July 16th-Aug 19th followed by a whopping 5 NS including Dorian the subsequent 15 days).

[LarryWx]

To add to my post above, the 12Z EPS suggests the possibility of 2 NS on the map by August 13th: one in the MDR east of the Caribbean moving WNW and a second near FL moving NE.
So, the latest ensembles aren't quiet into mid August. They are quiet only for the next 4-5 days or so. Then they get "not so quiet".

[Nimbus]

One of the culprits for the MDR to not turn active continues to be the SAL outbreaks.

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1554838976036589568

Saharan dust over the Eastern tropics [check]
TUTT thrashing north of the Caribbean [Check]

That should take us to the 10th, WXman57 thinks maybe 15th?

[captainbarbossa19]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

Not necessarily imho. The midpoint (8/16) is still nearly two weeks out. That's well beyond any kind of reliability of even the ensembles. Of course, it may turn out be inactive then like the models suggest. But I recall times when the ensembles consistently showed quiet day after day going out two weeks only to see them get fooled by the sudden start of an active period no more than just a few days out.

Even if 8/16 is quiet, that's not to say that it couldn't get active by, say 8/20, like 1942 (no TC til Aug 17th followed by 3 late Aug Hs), 1949 (1st TC not til Aug 20th followed by a whopping 6 NS the subsequent 16 days), 1999 (no TC June 19th-Aug 17th followed by a whopping 4 NS the subsequent week), and 2019 (no TC July 16th-Aug 19th followed by a whopping 5 NS including Dorian the subsequent 15 days).

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.
6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

Yep, you're right! Don't believe the models at all because they have failed so many times to show the development. I can count at least 5 years where models failed us in early August with 2017 being one of the worst.

[cycloneye]

Crunch time approaching.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1555180502759444487

[skyline385]

Phil going against the norm and saying cooler sub-tropics can cause increased shear. From the forecast discussion,

Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555192582317244417

[cycloneye]

Another tweet.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555193588601995264

[cycloneye]

Two more.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555194846658211840




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555195601947488257

[tolakram]

From the PDF

Most of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is slightly warmer than normal, while
vertical wind shear averaged across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean over the past 30
days is slightly weaker than normal. Warmer than normal water across the tropical
Atlantic provides more fuel for tropical cyclones. Vertical wind shear in July typically
has strong persistence, that is, if vertical wind shear is high in July, it is likely to remain
elevated for the rest of the season. All three climate models are predicting slightly
weaker-than-normal vertical wind shear for August-September. Lower vertical wind
shear allows hurricanes to better vertically align and inhibits entrainment of dry air into
the circulation.

Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Pacific
are cooler than normal, indicating continued persistence of La Niña conditions. Given
observed and continued forecast strong trade winds and strong anomalous cooling in the
subsurface tropical Pacific, we anticipate that La Niña is likely to persist through the
remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season.

While these factors tend to point towards an above-normal season, the subtropical
Atlantic has anomalously cooled. This anomalous cooling can increase the
tropical/subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, potentially favoring
increased frontal intrusions into the tropics and increasing vertical wind shear.

I think the season may hinge on the cool sub-tropics which may or may not make a difference. A lot of uncertainty in his statements compared with some pretty confident statements here about a cool subtropics causing 'wave breaking' and dumping dry air into the MDR.

[skyline385]

Andy's thoughts on the forecast, wavebreaking could potentially cause a bust

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1555198852206051329