SFLcane wrote:If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see
Not necessarily imho. The midpoint (8/16) is still nearly two weeks out. That's well beyond any kind of reliability of even the ensembles. Of course, it may turn out be inactive then like the models suggest. But I recall times when the ensembles consistently showed quiet day after day going out two weeks only to see them get fooled by the sudden start of an active period no more than just a few days out.
Even if 8/16 is quiet, that's not to say that it couldn't get active by, say 8/20, like 1942 (no TC til Aug 17th followed by 3 late Aug Hs), 1949 (1st TC not til Aug 20th followed by a whopping 6 NS the subsequent 16 days), 1999 (no TC June 19th-Aug 17th followed by a whopping 4 NS the subsequent week), and 2019 (no TC July 16th-Aug 19th followed by a whopping 5 NS including Dorian the subsequent 15 days).