Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[zzh]

Currently moving NNW

[SoupBone]

This thing really isn't performing like some of the earlier models showed. Starting to get a little more concerned now. Shouldn't we get an invest on this?

[BobHarlem]

Please tell me that's a temporary flare up.

[Nimbus]

Please tell me that's a temporary flare up.

Well yeah, it should be just shear causing some convective lift over the weak northern side of the wave.
But in the less likely event that it persists maybe the NHC will raise their 48 hour percentage off zero?

[skyline385]

The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.

[ElectricStorm]

Anything in the gulf cannot be trusted, as we've seen several times over the last few years, if this can manage to stay away from the Mexican coast long enough the chance is there for this to become stronger than the models are showing

[SoupBone]

The 00Z GFS brings a sloppy mess into central Texas then up into Houston. The GFS keeps coming in more north for the third run now.

[NotSparta]

The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.

https://i.imgur.com/G7pQX3x.png

Shear mostly looks good, the big limiter is time

[Kingarabian]

The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.

https://i.imgur.com/G7pQX3x.png

Shear mostly looks good, the big limiter is time

Has enough time IMO. Also latest GFS shifts away from Mexico after the Yucatan passage. Big time sleeper. Would be nice for an invest tag to see some HWRF and HMON runs.

[skyline385]

0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.

[Kingarabian]

GFS doesn't seem to be analyzing the convection correctly with this one.

[BobHarlem]

Still has decent convection to the north/Northeast this morning, is it trying to form/reform over water here near Belize? 8am two is still at 20%.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of
days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low
pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[jaguars_22]

I have a weird feeling about this storm! It has kept convection all night long and the models didn’t show that! Do we trust the models with this one?

[SoupBone]

0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/8c2f3596823203dc401c8588135dd486.gif
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/9c80f87a13271fda898e2234d6379ff6.jpg

That is definitely not a Harvey setup.

[skyline385]

0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/8c2f3596823203dc401c8588135dd486.gif
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/9c80f87a13271fda898e2234d6379ff6.jpg

That is definitely not a Harvey setup.

I was talking about the massive amounts of rain it dumps over Tx as the new system after the interaction meanders inland.

[NDG]

This TW so far has been an over achiver with a nice mid level vorticity center already.
S Texas, keep an eye on it over the next 3 days.

[BobHarlem]

Trying to find some hints on visible, but don't really spot any obvious center out of this system/trough right now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s a trough. It has no real center right now.

[Wampadawg]

Is a recon being scheduled