Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
This thing really isn't performing like some of the earlier models showed. Starting to get a little more concerned now. Shouldn't we get an invest on this?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Tropical wave over Central America
BobHarlem wrote:Please tell me that's a temporary flare up.
Well yeah, it should be just shear causing some convective lift over the weak northern side of the wave.
But in the less likely event that it persists maybe the NHC will raise their 48 hour percentage off zero?
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- skyline385
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
Anything in the gulf cannot be trusted, as we've seen several times over the last few years, if this can manage to stay away from the Mexican coast long enough the chance is there for this to become stronger than the models are showing
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
The 00Z GFS brings a sloppy mess into central Texas then up into Houston. The GFS keeps coming in more north for the third run now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- NotSparta
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
skyline385 wrote:The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.
https://i.imgur.com/G7pQX3x.png
Shear mostly looks good, the big limiter is time
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
NotSparta wrote:skyline385 wrote:The system is moving over 29C waters now and should be over 30C waters in the BOC, the potential is there is shear permits.
https://i.imgur.com/G7pQX3x.png
Shear mostly looks good, the big limiter is time
Has enough time IMO. Also latest GFS shifts away from Mexico after the Yucatan passage. Big time sleeper. Would be nice for an invest tag to see some HWRF and HMON runs.
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- skyline385
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Tropical wave over Central America
0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
GFS doesn't seem to be analyzing the convection correctly with this one.
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Re: Tropical wave over Central America
Still has decent convection to the north/Northeast this morning, is it trying to form/reform over water here near Belize? 8am two is still at 20%.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of
days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low
pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move across Central America during the next couple of
days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low
pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
I have a weird feeling about this storm! It has kept convection all night long and the models didn’t show that! Do we trust the models with this one?
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
skyline385 wrote:0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/8c2f3596823203dc401c8588135dd486.gif
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/9c80f87a13271fda898e2234d6379ff6.jpg
That is definitely not a Harvey setup.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- skyline385
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
SoupBone wrote:skyline385 wrote:0Z Euro has a weird interaction with the BoC system causing another Harvey like scenario.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/8c2f3596823203dc401c8588135dd486.gif
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220817/9c80f87a13271fda898e2234d6379ff6.jpg
That is definitely not a Harvey setup.
I was talking about the massive amounts of rain it dumps over Tx as the new system after the interaction meanders inland.
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
This TW so far has been an over achiver with a nice mid level vorticity center already.
S Texas, keep an eye on it over the next 3 days.
S Texas, keep an eye on it over the next 3 days.
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
Trying to find some hints on visible, but don't really spot any obvious center out of this system/trough right now.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Aug 17, 2022 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
It’s a trough. It has no real center right now.
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Re: Tropical wave over Honduras/NW Caribbean
Is a recon being scheduled
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