2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

True, Bonnie’s AEW was very impressive and we are still getting very good waves coming off the African coast. The problem right now seems to be that the Atlantic is killing off even the most favourable waves. And even Bonnie with how impressive it was only managed to form into something coherent right before crossing over into the EPAC. Back then we didn’t think much of it cause it was June but now its something to be looked at imo.


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[LarryWx]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.

Ain't that the truth?! Here is one post right after the pre-Bonnie AEW became Invest 94L:

"Definitely an interesting wave for June. Probably will see Bonnie out of this but I think it's too early to see something crazy. Not a great sign of things to come though if the waves are already this good."

[Category5Kaiju]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


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But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.

With that being said, it would certainly give me a decent chuckle (not out of sadism but curiosity ) if this season ends up like one of those seasons that don't feature much impressive levels of activity overall, but there is that one storm that unexpectedly happens and blows up into a Cat 4 or 5 and causes the season to be defined by that one storm. Kind of like 1900, 1910, 1935, 1980, or 1992. It only takes one, right?

[ElectricStorm]

But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

This is true and there were many posts opining on how wicked the waves would be in August given that beast of a wave. It seems the tropics never behave like one would expect.

Ain't that the truth?! Here is one post right after the pre-Bonnie AEW became Invest 94L:

"Definitely an interesting wave for June. Probably will see Bonnie out of this but I think it's too early to see something crazy. Not a great sign of things to come though if the waves are already this good."

That's my post isn't it I remember posting something like that

[NDG]

This wave breaking pattern retrograding westward because of high latitude ridging will end at some point, there is no way it will go through early meteorological Autumn, IMO.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Could we go the whole season without a hurricane? Has that happened before?

Highly unlikely. I am almost 100% sure we will see some hurricanes this year. As to how many and where exactly the hotspot could be is up in the air. This season would really have to fall on its face in order to have absolutely zero storms reach at least 65kt.

[SoupBone]

This wave breaking pattern retrograding westward because of high latitude ridging will end at some point, there is no way it will go through early meteorological Autumn, IMO.

With the way this season has gone so far, would you bet on that?

[skyline385]

This entire thread is very interesting, sheds some light on current scenario

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1562071462101471234





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[SFLcane]

Nearing a normal season soon.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1562090338784841728

[Kingarabian]

I think the issue here is that the PDO has been misjudged. A warm PDO enhances EPAC activity and can contribute to enhanced shear over parts of the Caribbean. I think the PDO's negative calculations from NOAA are wrong in some way. It's too bad Nate Mantua from JISAO stopped doing the PDO calculations, because I seriously doubt his values would be anywhere near this negative. Especially if there was a warm horseshoe present to some extent as we currently have. The Pacific NW resembles 2014-2016.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1561809394928599041

[aspen]

Just to add a little more to this, 1961 actually had a Cat 2 in mid-July. Meanwhile all we have had so far are two sloppy PTC systems which barely managed to reach TS status and a storm which formed inland for 12 hours lol.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

But to be fair, Bonnie's AEW was very impressive considering it was only late June. And folks were commenting on how it looked more like the heart of the MDR season rather than June then. Anyone can go back to the threads and see this to remind us how impressive the MDR was then.

And if Bonnie’s wave was just a tad further north, it could’ve become a rare June Caribbean hurricane. It was just too close to South America for days to properly close off, but if it was further away and formed earlier, then opinions on this season would be a little different. The August drought and model pushback would still be a major talking point, but we wouldn’t be so far behind in ACE.

[Hurricane Mike]

Septembers are very active in La Nina years, like 1998 or 1999 for example. I'm still not letting down my guard.

[psyclone]

The seasonal forecasting biz is going to take a devastating hit if this season is a bust after near universal bullishness. It's going to look like a slightly more sophisticated farmer's almanac. I'm reminded of 2006 when everyone was wildly ahead of themselves after 04 and 05 and it was a total flop.

[KWT]

Septembers are very active in La Nina years, like 1998 or 1999 for example. I'm still not letting down my guard.

Yeah plenty of examples out there of fairly sizeable La Nina Septs and Octobers as well come to mention it.

As I said before I do think a hyperactive season is becoming increasingly less likely now, I am surprised the ACE forecast model above still has a 29% chance of a hyper season, based on climatological chances I'd probably place it at no more than 10% now given past hyperactive seasons have usually started up by now, indeed the only season that I can find that was as slow as this one has been in terms of ACE by this point was 1961 (98/99 were definately slow, but by this point 98 had Bonnie peaking and Danielle adding to the ACE, 1999 had Bret as a major and Cindy was moving along in the E.Atlantic.

I think some people are going a little off the deep end mind you with expecting this season to be a very quiet one, we've seen seasons literally turn on a dime from slow to explosive (look back at 2017 for a good example of a start full of weak storms, followed by a huge blow out with Harvey,Irma,Jose and Maria) in a literally a 5-7 day period.

If we make it through to the 10th September and only get one weak storm, then there maybe a conversation to have about a below average season, but for now I think thats still about as likely as a hyperactive season is.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1562099160979066882

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

[toad strangler]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

[SteveM]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

It seems reasonable to me. It's hard to contain an entire 'very active season' within one month even if that month is September.

[toad strangler]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

It seems reasonable to me. It's hard to contain an entire 'very active season' within one month even if that month is September.

I see now. You are ACE chasers. In that case I’d agree.